Abstract:  Based on the panel data of China's 31 provinces from 1997-2013, this paper incorporates various static and dynamic panel data models to investigate the relationship between ageing, health expenditure and economic growth. The results show that both government and household health expenditure have significant positive effect on economic growth, and this positive effect is strengthened by the increasing ageing. The enhanced effect of ageing on the positive economic effect of health expenditure is very robust. Further group estimation and robustness tests show that the positive economic effect of government (household) health expenditure increases with time, and decreases from east to central and to west China. The expansion of health expenditure is of crucial importance to actively coping with population ageing and to realizing the sustained and stable economic growth.

Keywords: Health Expenditure, Old Dependency Ratio, Economic Growth

摘要： 文章基于中国1997～2013年间31个省（市、自治区）的面板数据，综合运用多种静态和动态面板数据模型，考察了老龄化、健康支出与经济增长的关系。研究发现：政府健康支出和居民健康支出均对经济增长呈显著的正向作用，且这一正向作用会随着老龄化水平的提高而得到强化。老龄化趋势对健康支出的经济正效应的增强作用非常稳健。进一步的分组稳健估计显示：分时段看，政府（居民）健康支出的经济正效应随时间推移而增大；分区域看，健康支出对东、中、西三大区域的正向经济影响呈现由东到西递减的态势；从结构上看，老龄化与健康支出占比的交互项也对经济增长起显著的正向作用。健康支出的扩大对我国积极应对人口老龄化和实现经济持续稳定增长至关重要。

关键词: 健康支出, 老年抚养比, 经济增长