Abstract:  This study examines the trends in and the impact of birth spacing policy on the second birth interval in China since 1970s using the population monitoring data in 121 Chinese counties．The birth spacing policy plays a significant role in regulating people’ s fertility behaviors thus slowing down population growth in China．Specifically，changes in second birth intervals have gone through three stages，a long-term stability before 1990s，an increase from 1990 to 2005 and a decline since 2006， implying a dynamic relationship with the birth interval regulation．Conditions for continuing the current birth spacing policy aiming at later birth，longer interval and less children no longer exist．Thus，the focus on birth spacing needs to be switched from a policy orientation to a health orientation．

Keywords: Second Birth Interval, Birth Spacing Policy, Population Monitoring Data

摘要： 文章利用 121 县人口监测系统大样本微观历时数据，分析了我国 1970 年以来二孩生 育间隔的变化趋势及影响因素。研究发现: 二孩生育间隔经历了上世纪 90 年代前的长期稳定、1990 ～2005 年间的持续上升和2006 年至今的缓慢下降，这种历史变动与我国生育间隔规定呈明显动态关 联。文章认为，我国生育间隔规定是针对“早、密、多”生育模式的政策调控，在当前群众主动推迟生 育、城乡普遍晚婚晚育、低生育水平长时期持续的背景下，生育间隔规定对生育行为的影响力和作用 空间在减小，继续执行以“晚、稀、少”为导向的现行生育间隔规定的前提已不复存在。全面二孩政策 实施后 70 后人群的大间隔生育将是未来不可忽视的一种生育特点，对生育间隔的关注应从人口调控 的政策导向逐渐过渡到健康导向。

关键词: 二孩生育间隔, 间隔规定, 政策因素, 个体因素