Abstract: Based on the estimation of age-specific consumption pattern in both urban and rural China，this paper simulates and analyzes the impacts of population structure characterized by aging and urbanization on the household consumption in the near future，and quantifies their contributions．Results show that the household consumption presents a significant age pattern．Urban household consumption pattern differs remarkably from that of rural households within each age group．Assuming a constant consumption structure by age，population aging does not have strong impact on the aggregate household consumption in China in 2050 compared to that in 2010，although it can significantly affect the consumption structure．For example，population aging leads to a growth of health care consumption． Population urbanization can considerably promote the household consumption．The impact of population size on the household consumption will be far less than that of population aging and urbanization．Their contributions to the consumption are relatively stable under various scenarios of population projection and economic growth．

Keywords:  Household Consumption, Age-specific Consumption Pattern, Aging, Urbanization, Chinese Family Panel Studies ( CFPS)

摘要： 文章在定量测度中国城乡居民年龄别消费模式的基础上,模拟分析未来人口变动对居民消费的影响,量化人口老龄化与城镇化的贡献率。研究发现,中国居民消费模式总体上呈现出比较显著的年龄特征,且各年龄段不同消费类别的城乡差异明显。假设城乡居民年龄别消费结构保持不变,2010~2050年人口老龄化对中国居民消费在总量层面上影响不大;在消费结构层面对不同消费类别的影响差异明显,其中对医疗保健类消费的促进作用最大;人口城镇化对居民消费的影响主要表现为消费规模的扩张。在人口变动、经济增长的不同模拟情景下,人口规模对未来中国居民消费变动的影响均远小于人口结构的影响,且人口老龄化与城镇化对居民消费的贡献率具有相对稳定性。

关键词: 居民消费, 年龄别消费模式, 老龄化, 城镇化, 中国家庭动态跟踪调查