Abstract: In recent years the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product and the urbanization rate have been slowing down,and there is a growing trend of replacing human labor by machines and technology in China.However,the agriculture scale management in rural areas has not yet realized.Besides,the policies related to the reform of rural land use and Hukou system have not yet been fully implemented.Meanwhile,migrant workers tend to withdraw from the urban labor market earlier than before.The traditional real estate-oriented urban development pattern not only reduces the level of inclusiveness but also decreases employment opportunities in the tertiary industry of urban areas.Therefore,the surplus of the rural labor force could be a long-term
phenomenon.Currently,the issues of low birth rate and rapid population aging have not yet reached the‘tipping point’.However,China’ s large population size and the rapid growth of its socio-economically deprived population may impose pressure upon the country and the world at large.Thus,greater emphasis of population policies should be placed on changing the demographic structure.That is to reduce the proportion of socio-economically deprived population rather than merely increase the population size.Meanwhile,the reform related to urbanization should be accelerated to promote the transformation of the urban development pattern,and the system of population data collection and release should be improved in the country as well．

Keywords: Urbanization, Rural Labor Supply, Population Aging, Population Structure

摘要：

当前宏观经济增长速度放缓,城镇化发展速度也将减慢,资本和技术对劳动力的替代更趋明显,而农村尚未实现适度规模经营,加之各项改革政策尚未顺利落实,农民工在城市过早退出劳动力市场,传统的以房地产为导向的城市发展模式降低了城市的包容性,大大减少了城市服务业就业岗位。因此,劳动力严重过剩将是长期趋势。目前生育率降低和老龄化问题并没有到达危机阶段,而真正的问题是中国人口规模大以及低水平人口过快增长对中国、对全球将造成压力。未来人口政策的重点应该是调整人口结构,以提高人口质量,而非单纯增加人口数量,同时还要加快推进城镇化改革,促进城市转变发展模式,完善人口信息数据的采集和发布。 

关键词: 城镇化, 农村劳动力供给, 老龄化, 人口结构