Abstract:

From the perspective of rural micro-space development, this paper studies the spatial development of the ageing of rural China and its possible impact. Based on the rural township data, it finds that more than 78% villages have become an ageing society. What is striking is that many villages are experiencing deep and even super ageing. Using the Theil Index, it shows that ageing of rural China is characterized by a bigger intra-regional than inter-regional heterogeneity. In general, the distribution of the elder population in most rural areas is more scattered. It argues that the three factors including the degree of ageing, the distribution of the rural elder population, and the rural development are critical to the spatial effect of rural ageing. With the evolution of the distribution of the rural elder population and the rapid development of population ageing in the villages, policy-makers should pay more attention to the ageing process of the shrinking villages and the development of the villages with deep or super degree of ageing, in order to better plan and deal with the spatial-economic challenges brought by the rural ageing process.

Keywords: Ageing of Rural China, Rural Development, Spatial Evolution, Rural Township Data

摘要： 文章从乡村微观空间视角分析乡村人口老龄化的空间进展及其影响。利用乡村层级微观数据的研究发现：目前，全国有超过78%的乡村已经进入老龄化社会，乡村的深度老龄化和超级老龄化急速发展的现象非常突出。利用泰尔指数的测度结果显示：乡村人口老龄化发展的区域内部差异比其区域间差异更加突出，总体来看绝大多数地区的乡村老年人口分布呈现比较分散的状态。研究指出:老龄化、乡村老年人口分布与乡村发展是乡村人口老龄化空间作用机制的3个关键因素，伴随着乡村老年人口分布的演进和深度老龄化与超级老龄化的进展，应密切关注收缩型乡村的老龄化进程，关注深度老龄化和超级老龄化乡村的发展，前瞻性应对乡村人口老龄化带来的城乡空间经济冲击。

关键词: 乡村人口老龄化, 乡村发展, 空间演进, 乡村层级数据