Abstract: Some reports claim that Chinese womens infertility rate stands at around 15%, which might adversely affect the fertility rate. However, studies in different fields adopt different definitions and measurements of infertility, leading to considerable variations in prevalence estimates. The estimate (i.e. 15%) might be developed based on clinical or epidemiological definition, which does not necessarily mean that 15% of women are incapable of giving births throughout their lives. From the perspective of cohort fertility, we estimate the proportion of Chinese women aged 40-64 who have never given live births based on data from population censuses and annual sampling surveys. We argue that the proportion of women aged 40 and above reporting no live births or pregnancies has always been much lower than 15%. Universally Chinese women have given birth to at least one child by the end of their childbearing age.

Keywords: Prevalence of Infertility, Lifetime Fertility, Live Births, Definition of Infertility

摘要： “中国不孕率高达15%”的说法流传已久, 并被视作是对生育率的威胁之一。然而，当前不孕的定义和测量标准因研究领域不同而存在很大差异，使得不同定义下的不孕率也有很大差别，这一数值很可能是基于临床医学或流行病学定义而计算得出，并不意味着有15%的妇女终身无能力生育。从终身生育行为的角度出发，利用历次人口普查、1%人口抽样调查数据以及2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据，分析中国40~64岁妇女中无活产子女者的比例，结果表明，多年来中国40岁及以上妇女中无活产子女者和不孕者的比例始终很低，真正因生育障碍而终身不孕不育者的比例远未达到15%的水平，中国仍旧是一个女性基本普遍生育的国家。

关键词: 不孕率, 终身生育水平, 活产子女, 不孕定义