Abstract: Based on World Bank population and economic data for 13 countries, this paper explores how economic growth might be affected by population declines, and whether and how economic growth can be sustained when population decreases. International experience shows that economic development can still be achieved during population decline. Analyses from the perspectives of consumption and production suggest that, overall, the negative impact of population decline on economic growth is mild in the short term but will be larger in the long term. In the future, to better deal with the challenges brought by the population decline, we should develop labor resources, improve the efficiency of factor allocation, promote scientific and technological innovation, take advantage of the large population size and the regional discrepancies in development, explore both international and domestic markets, improve population policies, and support further research on population decline.

Keywords: Population Decline, Economic Growth, Population Size, Population Growth

摘要： 利用世界银行1996~2018年13个国家的人口和经济数据，探讨了人口负增长时代是否还能实现经济持续增长，并重点分析了人口负增长对经济增长的影响机制以及如何应对人口负增长背景下经济增长挑战等问题。国际经验表明，人口负增长时代仍能保持不同程度的经济增长。从消费和生产两条路径分析人口负增长对经济增长的影响机制，综合判断，短期内人口负增长对经济增长的影响是温和的、式微的，经济仍能实现增长；长期来看，人口负增长对经济增长的不利影响将逐渐显现。应通过挖掘劳动力资源、提升要素配置效率、科技创新、利用好超大人口规模优势和地区发展差异的机遇、利用好国际国内市场、完善人口政策，以及加强人口负增长规律研究等方式应对未来我国人口负增长带来的挑战。

关键词: 人口负增长, 经济增长, 人口规模, 人口增长