Abstract: Chinese family has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades, especially in terms of union formation and dissolution. Using data from Census, miniCensus, and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of marriage and divorce in China. We further compare marriage and divorce trends of China with those in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Russia, British, France, German, Italy, and Spain. Our results show a delayed first marriage age and increased singlehood rate in China, yet marriage is still earlier and more universal in China than in other developed countries. We expect increases in both marriage age and singlehood rate as Chinas economy further develops. Despite a high crude divorce rate in recent China, our results based on age and cohort analysis reveal that divorce is much less prevalent in China than in other countries. With the persistent childcentered family culture, we argue that marriage in China will remain relatively stable in the short term.

Keywords: Marriage, Divorce, Mean Age at First Marriage, Cohort Analysis

摘要： 中国家庭近年来经历了迅速的变迁，尤其体现在婚姻的形成与解体上。利用人口普查和中国家庭追踪调查数据，分析了中国居民婚姻行为的变化趋势，并阐明不同测量指标的适用性与局限性。此外，将中国居民的婚姻行为与美国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯、英国、法国、德国、意大利和西班牙进行了比较。结果显示，中国居民的初婚年龄与不婚率都有所增加，但与其他国家相比，人们仍较早、较普遍进入婚姻。通过分析成因及与国际比较，认为中国居民将持续推迟初婚年龄，不婚也将更为普遍。中国粗离婚率在近年来不断攀升，但队列分析结果显示，中国居民的离婚风险与其他国家相比仍然很低。在传统养育观念占主导的情况下，中国居民在短期内仍将维持较高的婚姻稳定性。

关键词: 初婚, 离婚, 平均初婚年龄, 队列分析