Abstract: Population governance is among the core themes of national and social governance. During China's contemporary governance transformation, its population governance transforms from “instrumental” to “inclusive” one. The governance tends to achieve a balance among three factors: national rationality, family discretion, and social autonomy. This tripartite model is a critical feature and a strength. Nonetheless, the governance mechanisms in China are confined to the tradition of adapting population changes to institutions. Certain inertia are hard to overcome and the efficacy is diminishing. To respond to the needs of governance transformation in the new era and adapt to the population changes, we need to adjust the understanding of the relationship between population and development, and also integrate two mechanisms—adapting population changes to institutions and adapting institutions to population changes. To maintain the strength of the tripartite model, we shall further establish a “Chinese approach” of population governance on the basis of new development opportunities.

Keywords: Population Governance, Population Development Patterns, Family Changes, Population Ageing

摘要： 人口治理是国家与社会治理的重要主题和核心领域之一。在中国治理体系转型的过程中，当代中国人口治理理念从强调工具性趋于强化包容性，人口治理结构呈现为“国家理性—家庭自治—社会自主”的三重平衡，这种三元结构是中国人口治理格局的重要特征乃至优势。然而，中国的治理路径仍囿于“以人口适应制度”模式，存在若干治理惯性且治理效能趋于衰减。为回应新时代的治理转型需求并适应其人口变动趋势，亟须重新认识人口与发展的关系，整合“以人口适应制度”和“以制度适应人口”的治理路径，延续已有人口治理结构优势并进一步开发其治理资源，在充分利用新时代发展契机的基础上完善人口治理格局，凝练出新时代人口治理的“中国方案”。

关键词: 人口治理, 人口发展模式, 家庭变迁, 人口老龄化