Abstract: China's disabled and semi-disabled elderly population has grown rapidly and its distribution between urban and rural areas is uneven. Utilizing the 2011 and 2014 CLHLS data, this paper introduces the measurement of transition intensity to construct the health state transition probability matrix, and predict the population size of disabled elderly and the care time needs by urban and rural areas. The main conclusions are: (1) The probability of urban and rural older people with moderate and severe disability will increase with age and deterioration of initial health. (2) In 2050, the population of moderately and severely disabled aged 65 and above will reach over 83 million, which is about 3 times that in 2020. The ratio of the number of moderately disabled older people aged 65 to 74 in urban over rural areas has increased from 2.04 in 2020 to 7.77 in 2050. 2020-2040, the number of moderately and severely disabled older people aged 75 to 84 in rural areas will always be higher than that in urban areas. In 2020, the ratio of the number of moderately and severely disabled older people aged 65 to 74 in rural over urban areas will reach peaks of 1.74 and 2.38 respectively. (3) The average duration time of moderate disability of older people aged 65 to 74 in urban areas is 1.34 times that in rural areas, and the average duration time of the severe disability of older people in the same age group is 1.28 times that in urban areas.

Keywords: Urban Rural Differences, Disabled Older People, Health State Transition Probability Matrix, Care Time Needs

摘要： 中国失能、半失能老年人口增长较快且城乡分布不均衡。运用2011年和2014年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查数据，引入转移强度构建健康状态转移概率矩阵，分城乡预测了失能老年人口规模和照护时间需求，主要结论为：（1）城乡老年人进入中度和重度失能的概率均会随着年龄增长和初始健康状态恶化呈递增趋势。（2）2050年，城乡65岁及以上中度和重度失能老年人口将达到约8304.12万人，约是2020年的2.96倍。65~74岁城乡中度失能老年人数量比由2020年的2.04扩大到2050年的7.77；2020~2040年，75~84岁农村中度和重度失能老年人数量一直高于城镇，2020年该年龄组乡城中度和重度失能老年人数量比分别达到峰值1.74和2.38。（3）65~74岁城镇老年人中度失能状态持续时间平均是农村的1.34倍，该年龄组农村老年人重度失能状态持续时间平均是城镇的1.28倍。

关键词: 城乡差异, 失能老年人, 健康状态转移概率矩阵, 照护时间需求