Abstract: Focusing on the phenomenon that childbearing-age people "do not want to give birth, ""dare not to give birth," and "are unable to give birth," we comprehensively consider the three dimensions of fertility—intention, conditions, and structure, build a fertility composite index according to the relevant theories of low fertility rate, observe and analyze the current situation of low fertility rate in China, and make inter-provincial comparisons. We find that the average national fertility composite index is 0.492. The fertility condition index is the lowest, reflecting the constraints on fertility caused by employment and income factors and lack of fertility support. The structural characteristics of the childbearing-age people are consistent in all provinces, while the fertility intention and fertility conditions are spatially heterogeneous. There is a positive association between fertility index and total fertility rate. With a 0.1 unit increase in fertility index, total fertility rate increases by 0.286 units. Improving fertility intention can help effectively increase the total fertility rate; however, the changes in fertility conditions and fertility structure have not been able to effectively promote the total fertility rate. It is thus necessary to establish, improve, and implement long-term fertility support in order to reshape the fertility intention and change the behavior of the population.

Keywords: Fertility Composite Index, Fertility Intention, Fertility Conditions, Fertility Structure, Provincial Differences

摘要： 聚焦育龄人群"不想生""不敢生""不能生"现象，综合考虑生育意愿、生育条件、生育结构3个维度，根据低生育率相关理论，构建生育综合指数，观察分析当前中国低生育率现状并进行省际比较。研究发现，全国生育综合指数的平均值为0.492；生育条件指数值最低，反映了就业和收入因素及缺乏生育支持对生育率的制约；各省（区、市）育龄人群的结构特征较为一致，而生育意愿和生育条件的异质性较大；生育综合指数与总和生育率呈现正相关性，生育综合指数每提高0.1，总和生育率将会提高0.286。提升生育意愿将有助于提升总和生育率，但生育条件和生育结构尚未能有效发挥对生育率的促进作用，需要建立完善并长期实施生育支持政策，以重塑人群的生育观念、改变其生育行为。

关键词: 生育综合指数, 生育意愿, 生育条件, 生育结构, 省际差异