Abstract: Fertility support policies are essential for addressing low fertility rates, and it is crucial to promptly evaluate their effects on fertility. Based on the data from a specialized survey in China, this study adopts the Logit model to examine the impact of expected policy effects on fertility plans across various parental statuses and their mechanisms. The results show that positive expectations of policy effects significantly promote fertility plans. Paid parental leave and universal childcare are particularly effective for married but childless individuals. Paid parental leave and childcare subsidies also support fertility plans among parents with one child. The impacts of expected policy effects are heterogeneous across marital statuses and socioeconomic backgrounds. A positive fertility concept positively moderates the impact of policy effects. Favorable expectations for multiple policies can generate synergistic effects in promoting fertility plans. The findings suggest that we should publicize fertility support policies, enhance policy targeting, highlight the power of culture, and improve policy synergy.

Keywords: Fertility Support Policies, Expected Effects, Fertility Plans, Fertility Concept, Policy Synergy

摘要： 完善生育支持政策体系是应对低生育率的关键举措，应及时评估生育支持政策的生育效应。利用中国不婚不育少育群体专项调查数据，使用Logit模型分析生育支持政策预期效果对不同婚育状态人群生育计划的影响及作用机制。研究发现：对政策效果的正向预期能够显著促进育龄人群的生育计划，其中，带薪育儿假和普惠托育服务正向预期效果显著促进了已婚未育人群的生育计划，带薪育儿假和育儿补贴正向预期效果显著促进了已婚一孩人群的生育计划；政策预期效果对生育计划的影响因育龄人群婚育状态和社会经济地位不同而异；积极的生育价值观对政策预期效果的生育促进作用具有正向调节效应；生育支持政策正向预期效果的组合可以对育龄人群的生育计划发挥协同促进作用。鉴于此，应加强生育支持政策宣传，强化政策针对性，注重文化的力量，提高政策协同性。

关键词: 生育支持政策, 预期效果, 生育计划, 生育价值观, 政策协同