Abstract: Based on data from the national censuses and other sources, this paper examines the characteristics and trends of cross-county migration in border counties from 2000 to 2020, and explores the long-term and periodic factors influencing out-migration and in-migration in border counties. Since 2000, both the out-migration and in-migration rates in border counties have increased, with population decline driven by net outflows becoming the dominant trend. In the long term, the urban wage levels and medical conditions are the main drivers of cross-county out-migration, while the proportion of non-agricultural industries, urbanization rates, and preferential policies are the key factors attracting people to border counties. Out-migration rates in border counties were initially influenced by transportation infrastructure and educational attainment, whereas they are currently affected by socio-economic factors and living conditions. Meanwhile, cross-county in-migration rates were also initially influenced by transportation infrastructure but later became related to preferential policies, medical conditions, and urbanization rates. It is necessary to significantly improve the living conditions and socioeconomic development in border counties suffering from net outflows and population decline, and to enhance economic growth and talent attraction in border counties with net inflows. Most importantly, promoting two-way mobility among diverse ethnic groups in border areas.

Keywords: Border Areas, Cross-County Migration, Fixed Effect, Population Census

摘要： 基于全国人口普查等数据，考察2000~2020年中国边境县人口跨县流动的特征和变动趋势，探究影响边境县人口跨县流出和流入的长期性和时期性因素。研究发现，2000年以来，边境县人口跨县流出率与流入率双向提升，人口外流主导的人口负增长边境县逐步占据主流地位。城镇平均工资水平和医疗条件是边境地区人口跨县流出的主要推力，非农产业发展、城镇化水平和地方财政预算支出是边境地区人口跨县流入的关键拉力。边境县人口跨县流出率早期与交通条件和受教育水平相关，后期与社会经济因素和人居环境因素相关；跨县流入率早期与交通条件相关，后期与政策优惠、医疗条件和城镇化水平相关。应着重改善人口净流出边境县的人居环境和社会经济状况，提升人口净流入边境县的经济发展水平和人才吸引力，促进各民族人口双向流动。

关键词: 陆地边境地区, 跨县流动, 固定效应, 人口普查