Abstract: While previous studies have primarily focused on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor markets, its effects on population migration and settlement behavior remain insufficiently explored. How does AI development reshape the long-term settlement intentions of migrants through labor market mechanisms? Does this effect exhibit significant heterogeneity across different skill levels which migrants have? To address these questions, this study draws on data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) (2012-2018) and Baidu migration data (2019-2024) to systematically examine the impact of AI development on migrants' long-term settlement intentions.

The results indicate that AI development significantly increases migrants' long-term settlement intentions, this conclusion remains robust after various robustness checks and addressing endogeneity concerns. Mechanism analysis reveals that, at the micro level, AI development enhances migrants' long-term settlement intentions by raising their income levels and labor market participation, thereby improving economic returns and employment stability. At the city level, AI development fosters migrants' long-term settlement intentions by stimulating urban economic growth, optimizing public services provision, and enhancing urban amenities. Heterogeneity analysis further demonstrates that the positive effect of AI development is more pronounced among high-skilled and high-income migrants, as well as those engaged in non-routine cognitive tasks, whereas low-skilled, low- to middle-income migrants, and those performing routine, easily replaceable tasks benefit significantly lesser. Further analysis reveals that AI development also exerts a notable positive effect on population migration behavior.

This study contributes to the literature in three main ways. First, in terms of research content, it integrates AI development into the analytical framework of population migration by focusing settlement intentions, thereby deepening the understanding of the nexus between technological change and population dynamics. Second, regarding research design, unlike most existing studies that rely on industrial robot adoption as a proxy for AI, this paper extracts firms' business scope data from the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System. By leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for keyword filtering, it constructs a city-level indicator of AI enterprise density. This approach more accurately measures the practical application and industrialization of AI, overcoming the manufacturing bias of robot-based data. Third, from a research perspective, this paper moves beyond the conventional view of migrants as a homogeneous group. By focusing on skill structures, it reveals the heterogeneous settlement decisions under technological shocks, providing new empirical evidence for the evolution of demographic structures.

Theoretically, this study elucidates how AI influences migrants' settlement intentions through labor market channels and urban amenities, enriching the discourse on migration. Practically, it advocates for inclusive AI development policies and the establishment of universal, forward-looking lifelong learning and reskilling systems. Particular emphasis should be placed on supporting low- and middle-skilled and low-income groups, ensuring that the dividends of AI development are shared more broadly to promote the synergy between technological progress and high-quality population development.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence Development, Floating Population, Long-term Settlement Intention

摘要： 既有研究多关注人工智能对劳动力市场的影响，但关于其对人口迁移与居留行为的作用尚缺乏系统分析。本文基于中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据与百度迁徙数据，实证考察了人工智能发展对流动人口长期居留意愿的影响。研究表明，人工智能发展显著提升了流动人口长期居留意愿，且这一效应在高技能、高收入、从事非常规认知任务的群体中更为显著。机制分析显示，人工智能在微观层面提高了个体经济收入和劳动参与水平，在宏观层面推动城市经济发展、优化城市公共服务供给并增强城市吸引力，从而提升了流动人口长期居留意愿。进一步分析发现，人工智能发 展对人口迁移行为也具有促进效应。建议构建包容性人工智能发展政策，让更多的流动人口享受人工智能发展红利，实现技术进步与人口高质量发展协同推进。

关键词: 人工智能发展, 流动人口, 长期居留意愿