Abstract: "Demographic Transition",which was first proposed in 1929 by the Warren Thompson,is a model depicting population changes,or transitions in birth and death rates over time in industrialized societies,and the theory of Demographic Transition becomes one of the most important theories in demography.In the late 1980s,Van de Kaa & Lesthaeghe put forward "Second Demographic Transition"(SDT) to describe population,marriage and family change and low fertility since World War Two in Western European countries.In less than a decade,Coleman suggested the "third Demographic Transition"(TDT) to interpret the change of ethnic structure caused by low fertility rate and high immigration rate in Western countries.While the demographers who invented the new concepts SDT and TDT did very enlightening and valuable work,it seems to be inappropriate to use "Demographic Transition" to describe all the new developments in population.

Keywords: Demographic Transition, First Demographic Transition, Second Demographic Transition, Third Demographic Transition

摘要： 人口转变的概念从提出到现在已有80多年的历史。数十年来,许多学者对人口转变的研究和贡献,使之成为人口学最有影响的理论之一。它概括了人类在从传统社会向现代社会转变的过程中人口再生产的演变特点以及这种演变的原因和社会经济后果。到了上个世纪80年代后期,欧洲学者范德卡及其同事提出了"第二次人口转变"的概念,以此概括二战以后发生在西欧的一系列人口和婚姻家庭的变化以及生育率现象。20世纪90年代后,又有学者用"第三次人口转变"表述欧美国家持续的低生育率和高迁入率导致的人种结构的变化。文章认为,"第二次人口转变"和"第三次人口转变"的提出者们的研究是非常有启发性和有价值的,但并不赞成他们将自己的研究内容冠以"人口转变"。

关键词: 人口转变, 第一次人口转变, 第二次人口转变, 第三次人口转变