Abstract: This paper,bringing the spatial factor into the framework of ageing study,examines patterns of spatial distribution of the regional population aging in China using exploratory spatial data analysis,and explores the determinants and their relative importance with Spatial Econometrics theory and spatial error model.In addition to the population aging inertia and population growth,the paper places emphasis on the regional spillover mechanism of population aging,revealing that the spillover effects are significant.The findings from this research broadens perspectives of ageing research in light of space dimension,which has important implications for theoretical research and policy formulation on population aging in China.

Keywords: Regional Spillover Mechanism, Spatial Heterogeneity, Spatial Correlation, Population Structure Inertia, Spatial Error Model

摘要： 将空间因素纳入我国人口老龄化问题的研究框架,对各地区人口老龄化的空间分布特征进行概括和探索性空间数据分析,利用空间计量经济学理论方法和空间误差模型,对各要素影响作用的方向和大小进行实证研究,最后得出综合结论和政策建议。除老龄化惯性、人口增长以外,首次对人口老龄化区域溢出机制进行了重点阐述。我国人口老龄化区域溢出作用不仅客观存在,而且影响显著,这一发现从空间维度拓宽了研究视野,为我国人口老龄化问题理论研究和政策制定提供了有益的借鉴。

关键词: 区域溢出机制, 空间异质性, 空间相关性, 人口结构惯性, 空间误差模型