Abstract: Based on New Economic Geography,this paper adopts simultaneous equations to analyze the influencing factors of labor mobility and the tertiary industry and the endogeneity between labor mobility and the tertiary industry using China′s provincial panel data from 2006-2009.Results show that economic income,development of the tertiary industry and economic openness are the major determinants of labor inflow.With the increasing of the rural net income and the decreasing of the gap between urban and rural areas,labor mobility is reduced;capital,labor and market factors promote the development of the tertiary industry;policy constraints obstruct the development of the tertiary industry,and the urbanization strategy in different development stages of different regions has different effects;and the interaction of the labor mobility and the tertiary industry leads to aggregation effect of labor in China′s eastern region.

Keywords: Labor Mobility, Tertiary Industry, Endogeneity, Simultaneous Equations

摘要： 根据新经济地理学理论构建劳动力流动与第三产业的联立方程,系统分析2006～2009年中国各省市劳动力流动与第三产业发展的影响因素及两者之间的内生性关系。研究发现,流入地的经济收入、第三产业的发展水平和经济开放度是吸引劳动力流入的主要动力;随着农村净收入的提高,城乡收入差距缩小,劳动力的流动性随之降低;资本、劳动力和市场因素会促进第三产业的发展,但过多的政策管制却阻碍了第三产业的发展,而且城市化策略在不同区域的不同发展阶段其效果不同;劳动力流动与第三产业发展是相互作用的,从而引起劳动力在东部的聚集效应和在中西部的分散效应。

关键词: 劳动力流动, 第三产业, 内生性, 联立方程