Since the enactment of the
Compulsory Education Law in 1986, China has achieved remarkable progress in educational development, transitioning to high-quality population development. However, due to its immense demographic scale, out-of-school adolescents (OOSA) remain substantial, reaching 14.24 million in 2020. Understanding OOSA's demographic evolution is essential for mitigating social governance risks and unlocking human capital potential. Utilizing data from four waves of China's National Population Census (1990-2020), this study examines the longitudinal evolution and emerging characteristics of OOSA aged 10-19 across demographic composition, spatial mobility, urban-rural distribution, and labor market participation.
The research reveals four critical shifts. First, the demographic composition of OOSA has undergone a structural transformation. Overall, OOSA are predominantly aged 15 and above (beyond compulsory education), and the primary stage of educational attrition has shifted from primary/lower secondary to lower/upper secondary completion. Notably, in recent years, the size and share of OOSA within the compulsory education age group (10-14) has rebounded from 2.24 million (3.0%) in 2010 to 3.92 million (4.6%) in 2020. Boys face higher dropout risk, leading to an increasingly male-skewed ratio among OOSA, while girls who leave school face a significantly higher risk of early marriage.
Second, the spatial distribution of OOSA is being restructured. While 73.8% hold rural Hukou, over half (55.3%) are now urban-dwelling. The proportion of OOSA living in urban areas is nearly 10 percentage points lower than that of all adolescents. By age group, urbanization of OOSA aged 10-15 is similar to peers, but for those aged 16-19, the gap in urbanization rates relative to all adolescents widened from 5.3 percentage points in 1990 to 20.3 percentage points in 2020, indicating a clear lag.
Third,OOSA spatial mobility has intensified, with sustained concentration in eastern regions. There is a robust correlation between inter-provincial migration and out-of-school status. In 2020, 30.9% of OOSA were migrants, up from 2.6% in 1990. The proportion of inter-provincial migrants among OOSA has consistently been much higher than that among all migrant adolescents. In recent years, although adolescents' opportunities to attend high school and college have increased, institutional barriers to cross-regional school progression for migrant adolescents have not eased, leading some inter-provincial migrant adolescents to drop out directly in their destinations.
Fourth, labor market participation of working-age OOSA (16-19) has undergone a structural transition. Employment rates declined from 83.4% in 2010 to 76.4% in 2020. The association between employment and migration has strengthened: by 2020, migrant OOSA's employment rate was 34.2 percentage points higher than that of non-migrants. Moreover, OOSA employment has shifted from primary to secondary and tertiary industries. In 2020, the tertiary sector accounted for 53.9% of employed OOSA, becoming their main employment field.
Based on these findings, the study concludes that policy interventions for OOSA must evolve toward a comprehensive governance framework focused on human capital accumulation and social support, including: promoting diverse and inclusive basic education options; improving lifelong education to enhance re-education accessibility; reforming education finance and resource supply to remove barriers to schooling for migrant adolescents and facilitate their enrollment and progression; seizing digital intelligence era opportunities to build stratified employment and skills support; and supporting OOSA's social integration and stable development by incorporating them into community-based social work services.
