Using data from China's 6th and 7th Censuses, this study assesses the accuracy of first marriage statistics, applies necessary adjustments, and explores their implications for analyzing marriage patterns. The findings reveal that trends in census-reported first marriages largely align with civil registration records but have been lower than those in civil records since 2010. Comparisons between the 6th and 7th Censuses reveal discrepancies in first marriage counts from 1980 to 2010. According to the 7th Census, the number of first marriages in 2010 was 2.53 times higher for males and 2.34 times higher for females than those recorded in the 6th Census. Data adjustments are crucial, as raw census data consistently underestimate historical first marriage levels nationwide and overestimate mean ages at first marriage. Adjusted data indicate notable shifts in China's first marriage patterns since 1980, with sharper declines in total first marriage rates and faster increases in the mean age at first marriage from 2010 to 2020.

Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990, this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades. Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested. The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020, and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036. Unlike in the past, when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions, the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent. The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities, with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married. The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated, with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors. The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020. Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources, increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance, and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.    

China experienced an early arrival of aged society around the turn of the century due to its rapid demographic transition．In order to keep the equilibrium development of population，it is essential to address the dilemma of the large population size and the unbalanced population structure under certain resource，technology and institution conditions．If the government implements the universal two- child policy in time，and further adjusts the population and related socio-economic policies to increase TFR to about 1. 8 and then gradually make it return to the replacement level，a stable population will be approximately achieved in the next 30 or 40 years．The age structure，together with the urban and rural composition will both reach a stable level．The proportion of population aged 60 or over will reach one- third，which is almost the average level of developed countries as a whole but still lower than that of Germany and Japan，and the urbanization rate will reach 75 percent．At that time，the human capital accumulation will rank forefront among the world，the modernization will be realized，and the balance among the factors of population itself and the development of economy，society，resources and envi- ronment is expected to be maintained．

China experienced an early arrival of aged society around the turn of the century due to its rapid demographic transition．In order to keep the equilibrium development of population，it is essential to address the dilemma of the large population size and the unbalanced population structure under cer- tain resource，technology and institution conditions．If the government implements the universal two- child policy in time，and further adjusts the population and related socio-economic policies to increase TFＲto about 1. 8 and then gradually make it return to the replacement level，a stable population will be approximately achieved in the next 30 or 40 years．The age structure，together with the urban and rural composition will both reach a stable level．The proportion of population aged 60 or over will reach one- third，which is almost the average level of developed countries as a whole but still lower than that of Germany and Japan，and the urbanization rate will reach 75 percent．At that time，the human capital accumulation will rank forefront among the world，the modernization will be realized，and the balance among the factors of population itself and the development of economy，society，resources and envi- ronment is expected to be maintained．

Abstract: Since the year 2012 saw a turning point of China s working age population，the issue of population ageing has increasingly been attached wide － spread significance to China s economic growth and national development In measuring population ageing，the traditional indicator of percentage aged 65 ( or 60) or over fails to capture the influence on ageing of the increased life expectancy Therefore，new measurement of ageing needs to be considered from the perspective of prospective age by which expected remaining years of life can be taken into account Two indicators，i e ，per-
centage of the elderly with prospective age of 65 or over ( with the year 2000 as reference) and proportion of the elderly with remaining life expectancy below 15 ( inclusive) ，are computed for China over the period from 2000 to 2050 using China s census and survey data and population projections In terms of the new measurement，levels of ageing and dependency ratio in China would be much lower，and the pace of ageing much slower，with the proportion of the elderly in the mid－century being 4－5 percent-
age points less than that from the traditional measurement A comprehensive understanding and thus holistic strategies are necessary to better achieve healthy ageing.