Previous large-scale surveys in China have conceptualized and measured fertility intentions differently. This study utilizes data from the 2023 specialized survey on never-married groups, childless, and single-child couples in China to systematically depict the gap between two measures of fertility intentions-fertility plans and fertility ideals-among these three specific groups. By incorporating fertility constraints faced by different groups, the study further explores the objective factors contributing to the gap. The findings reveal that all three groups exhibit a gap between their fertility plans and fertility ideals, suggesting that there are barriers faced by individuals at childbearing age in developing their fertility plans. Career development and housing conditions significantly constrain the fertility plans of the childless group, leading to their larger gaps in fertility plans. The fertility constraints among the group with only one child are mainly reflected in the economic constraints faced by individuals with lower household income. This study expands the understanding of fertility intentions among China's childbearing-age population, emphasizing that the fertility support policy system should focus on removing fertility constraints and providing more targeted incentives.

Diverging from patterns observed in developed countries, China has experienced a uniquely rapid fertility decline occurring at an earlier socioeconomic development level than would be predicted. Based on data from a special survey on groups who remain unmarried, childless, or have few children in China, this study identifies three distinctive factors contributing to China's ultra-low fertility: childcare challenges, education anxiety, and housing cost burden. Against the backdrop of a rapid “refamilialization” of caregiving responsibilities, the nurturing capacity of families has weakened while parental obligations have intensified. The intersection of traditional values emphasizing education and an intensely competitive selection system subjects parents to growing pressure and responsibilities in their children's education. Meanwhile, population concentration, unequal housing renter-owner rights, and inadequate housing security have sustained high housing costs. These factors significantly increase the financial, time, and psychological costs associated with raising children, resulting in suppressed fertility intentions. Effective pronatalist policies should remove barriers to fertility decision-making and target these three constraints unique to China's childbearing-age population.