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An Assessment of Lifetime Childlessness in China Based on the 7th Population Census
Zhang Cuiling, Jiang Yu, Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Quanbao, Yu Dian, Liu Wenli
Population Research
2023, 47 (3):
78-93.
According to the 7th National Population Census of China, the estimated rate of childlessness for women aged 49 is 5.16% in 2020, lower than that reported in the European Union (19%) and in the United States (11%). The heterogeneity of childlessness in China is increasing, showing distinct differences regarding to period, cohort, education, place of residence, and regions. The childlessness level of women aged 49 with high levels of education, living in cities and regions with ultra-low fertility levels is much higher. Factors like the acceleration of urbanization, the continued popularization of higher education, and the ongoing trend of marriage and childbearing delay would further promote the rise of the childlessness level. Given China's low share of non-marital births and third births and above, the continuous rise of childlessness level would have a stronger negative impact on the newborn population and total fertility rates, thereby affecting China's ability to maintain the aimed suitable fertility level. The government should attach great importance to and address the issue in advance.
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