人口研究 ›› 2015, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 22-34.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

现阶段中国的总和生育率究竟是多少?

翟振武1陈佳鞠2李龙3   

  1. 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京 100872
  • 出版日期:2015-11-29 发布日期:2016-01-18
  • 作者简介:1 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、北京社会建设研究院教授; 2 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心博士生;3 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心博士生
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重大项目( 项目批准号: 71490731)

China’s Recent Total Fertility Rate: New Evidence from the Household Registration Statistics

Zhai Zhenwu1, Chen Jiaju2, Li Long3   

  1. Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872
  • Online:2015-11-29 Published:2016-01-18
  • About author:1 Professor,Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing; 2 PhD Candidates,Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China;3 PhD Candidates,Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China

摘要: 现阶段中国的总和生育率究竟是多少? 要想得到这一问题的可靠答案,数据质量是关键。2015 年户籍登记数据中5 ~7 岁组人口数是目前可获最新且最接近这3 个队列实际人口情况的数据,基于这一数据估计2008 ~2010 年中国育龄妇女的总和生育率能够得到比较可靠的结果。文章估计得出2008 ~2010 年间中国的总和生育率大致在1. 63 ~1. 66 之间,整体处于平缓波动之中,而且由于户籍登记数据在低龄组不可避免地存在漏登现象,因而在此估计出的总和生育率水平是对2008 ~2010 年间中国育龄妇女生育“真水平”的低限估计,由此可以推断出2008 年、2009 年和2010年中国的总和生育率至少应该在1. 66、1. 66 和1. 63 以上。

关键词: 生育水平, 总和生育率, 户籍登记数据, 数据质量

Abstract: How low is China’s recent total fertility rate? Data quality is the key to the answer. Population at ages 5 -7 from the 2015 household registration statistics is currently the latest available data which are believed to best represent the actual numbers of the 3 cohorts. Thus,estimates are highly reliable of China’s total fertility rates for 2008 to 2010 based on these data. The main conclusion is that China’s total fertility rates in 2008 - 2010 stood roughly at 1. 63 -1. 66. However,there is inevitable under -registration of the youngest age groups in the household registration data,fertility estimates provided in this paper are the lower limit of China’s actual fertility level. Thus,China’s total fertility rate in 2008,2009 and 2010 must be higher than 1.66,1.66 and 1. 63 respectively.

Keywords: Fertility Level, Total Fertility Rate, Household Registration Data, Data Quality