Table of Content

29 May 2023, Volume 47 Issue 3

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“Getting Old before Getting Rich” in China: A Re-examination

Lin Bao

2023, 47(3):  3-16. 

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This article systematically reviews various debates on the judgment of “getting old before getting rich” and puts forward a more intuitive criterion: the index of consistency between population ageing and development level. According to this criterion, all countries and regions can be divided into three types: getting old before getting rich, basic coordination between being “old” and being “rich”, and getting rich before getting old. Based on the data of World Population Prospects 2022 and Human Development Report 2021/2022, we assess the relationship between being “old” and being “rich” in China since 1990 and find that China has been in the state of “getting old before getting rich” since 1990, but this situation has been changing in recent years. Using per capita national income as a representation of being “rich” shows that China is moving out of the state of “getting old before getting rich” and entering the state of basic coordination between being “old” and being “rich”. Using the human development index as a representation of being “rich” indicates that China is at the point of transition between the two states.

Productive Ageing Activities and Health Performance of Chinese Older Adults

Chen Lu, Wang Lu

2023, 47(3):  17-32. 

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Using the 2018 China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey (CLASS2018), this study constructs a composite index representing “productive ageing” based on nine activities, including helping children do housework, caring for grandchildren, and working. By employing simultaneous equations model, the health performance of “productive ageing” in China is identified. The results show that participation in “productive ageing” activities significantly improves the physical and mental health of older adults. These impacts differ significantly across gender, age, and education levels. When the participation level of “productive ageing” activities is low to moderate, its improvement effect on the physical health of older adults is better. However, when the frequency of helping children do housework and working is moderate, it negatively affects the mental health of older people. The effect of the number of “productive ageing” activities on older adults' physical and mental health exhibits an inverted Ushaped distribution. Notably, two or three “productive ageing” activities yield the best physical and mental health performance for older people.

Typology of Older Adults Based on Production and Consumption Dynamics and Its Associated Factors

Wang Yongmei, Zhang Dongxia, Cao Yang

2023, 47(3):  33-48. 

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This study presents a typology of older adults based on production and consumption dynamics, utilizing data from the 2018 China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey （CLASS2018）. The latent class model and the multi-nominal logit regression model were employed to identify four types of older adults: those with low demands and productivity, those with high demands, those with high productivity, and those with high demands and productivity. Results indicated that over half of older adults contributed to their families or society, while only about one-fifth demanded informal or formal care. The probability of being an older adult with high productivity declined for those aged over 66, while that of being an older adult with high demands increased for those aged over 69. The productive and consuming behaviors of older people were correlated to the natural environments, institutional arrangements, and social contexts. This study provides evidence for the reform of the retirement age policies and the construction of a social service system giving equal weight to aged care and social participation.

A Comparative Study on Population Change and Economic Growth between China and India: The Perspective of the Modernization of a Huge Population

Li Long, Jia Mohan, Jin Guangzhao

2023, 47(3):  49-62. 

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In the context of the modernization within China's vast population, this paper compares the conditions of populations as they relate to economic growth in both China and India. These two nations are developing countries notable for their huge populations. The results show that the current development level in India is equivalent to that of China in the late 1990s. When compared from a similar start economic level, India has not yet demonstrated a higher or longer demographic dividend than China. Due to a significantly lower labor force participation rate in the working-age population, the size of the Indian labor force will not surpass that of China in the first half of the 21st century, enabling China to maintain its position as having the world's largest labor force. China has huge advantages in terms of human capital stock and the population urbanization. After entering the phase of “double second” in population and economic size, China, in particular, needs to transform its huge advantages in human capital into labor productivity and increased labor participation.

The Employment Promotion and Environment Improvement through Sustainable Transformation in China's Resource-based Cities:The Perspective of Harmonious Co-existence between Humanity and Nature

Chang Dunhu, Li Mingkui, YuanJiaqian, ZhouJi, Ma Zhong

2023, 47(3):  63-77. 

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The declaration “planning development from the perspective of harmonious co-existence between humanity and nature” provides guidance for integrating population development and green development in resource-based cities at the conceptual, factual, and policy levels. Empirical research of this paper has found that the sustainable transformation of China's resource-based cities aims to improve employment and economy, with population development being prioritized over green development. However, green transformation contributes more to employment rate than traditional industrial transformation. Cooperation between employment expansion policies and environment improvement policies is conducive to achieving mutual goals, mainly due to the reduced dependence on finance and the enhanced public services. The key to improving the sustainable transformation policies in resource-based cities lies in handling the relationship between partial and overall, short-term and long-term, as well as government and market concerning the mutual goals of employment promotion and environment improvement. Incentivized by the green transition of the development mode, the endogenous mechanism of mutual promotion of “employment priority” and “ecological priority” will be realized in resource-based cities.

An Assessment of Lifetime Childlessness in China Based on the 7th Population Census

Zhang Cuiling, Jiang Yu, Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Quanbao, Yu Dian, Liu Wenli

2023, 47(3):  78-93. 

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According to the 7th National Population Census of China, the estimated rate of childlessness for women aged 49 is 5.16% in 2020, lower than that reported in the European Union (19%) and in the United States (11%). The heterogeneity of childlessness in China is increasing, showing distinct differences regarding to period, cohort, education, place of residence, and regions. The childlessness level of women aged 49 with high levels of education, living in cities and regions with ultra-low fertility levels is much higher. Factors like the acceleration of urbanization, the continued popularization of higher education, and the ongoing trend of marriage and childbearing delay would further promote the rise of the childlessness level. Given China's low share of non-marital births and third births and above, the continuous rise of childlessness level would have a stronger negative impact on the newborn population and total fertility rates, thereby affecting China's ability to maintain the aimed suitable fertility level. The government should attach great importance to and address the issue in advance.

Re-examining the Old-age Dependency Ratio and Ageing Population in China

Dai Zhixin, Du Peng, Dong Junhan

2023, 47(3):  94-107. 

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Using data from the 7th National Census of China and the United Nations' “World Population Prospects 2022”, this study analyzes the trend of China's population ageing. The findings reveal that the Chinese population is ageing rapidly. The ageing process will accelerate in the future, moving towards moderate and severe ageing. Consequently, the burden of old-age care will continuously increase. Meanwhile, the health and educational levels of the older population will also improve. In the context of continuous improvement of population quality, we take health status and educational levels into account when estimating the old-age dependency ratio. By replacing the population count with the total human resources, the revised old-age dependency ratio is lower than the traditional one, and its rate of increase is slower. This implies that the burden of old-age care for the working-age population in the future may not grow as rapidly as previously expected. With socioeconomic development and medical and health conditions improvements, population ageing needs to be measured with more comprehensive and appropriate indicators. This will help clarify the process of population ageing in China and actively respond to population ageing.

Impairment-free Life Expectancy for People with Different Educational Levels：Based on the Bayesian Extension of Sullivan's Method

Wang Xiaojun, Huang Zihang, Qin Chengying

2023, 47(3):  108-120. 

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Based on the mortality data of the Chinese population and the cross-sectional health data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this paper uses the Bayesian extension method of Sullivan's method to study life expectancy, impairment-free life expectancy, and their changes over time among people aged 50 and over with different education levels. The results show that the higher the education level, the longer the life expectancy and the longer the impairment-free life expectancy. The higher the education level, the higher the proportion of impairment-free life expectancy in life expectancy. At the same level of education, women live longer than men, but they have shorter impairment-free life expectancy and longer impairment survival than men of the same age; Higher levels of education have a greater effect on physical function in younger age groups and in men; From 2013 to 2018, the growth rate of life expectancy for people aged 50 years and above exceeded that of impairment-free life expectancy, and there was a phenomenon of impairment expansion. Improving the education level of the population can effectively slow down the expansion rate of physical dysfunction.

The Impact of Population Spatial Agglomeration on the Economic Growth of Urban Agglomerations in China: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on 19 Urban Agglomerations

Tong Yufen, Yang Yanfei, Han Jiabin

2023, 47(3):  121-128. 

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Population spatial agglomeration is the basis for the economic growth of urban agglomerations in China. A dynamic panel regression model is established on the basis of the theoretical derivation of the relationship between population spatial agglomeration and economic growth in urban agglomerations. The study has three major findings. (1) The spatial concentration of population in urban agglomerations in China has a significant impact on the economic growth of urban agglomerations. (2) The effect of population agglomeration on economic growth in urban agglomerations is a non-linear “inverted U-shaped” relationship. At the initial stage of population agglomeration, the population agglomeration to the core cities within urban agglomerations is conducive to improving the economic efficiency of urban agglomerations, and after the population agglomeration reaches a certain level, the economic efficiency will be weakened. (3) Industrial structure optimization and technological progress are useful for the economic growth of urban agglomerations. Capitalizing on the urban agglomeration dividend, it is important to reduce the negative externalities of excessive spatial concentration of population in urban agglomerations, thus promoting high-quality development of urban agglomerations.