Population Research

The What and the How of Strategy: The National Strategy of Actively Responding to Population Ageing in the Process of China's Modernization

Hu Zhan, Sun Xin

2024, 48(5): 3-16.

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The National Strategy of Actively Responding to Population Ageing represents a significant effort to build consensus and integrate resources to enhance governance in an ageing society. This strategy innovatively expands upon the WHO's “Active Ageing” framework, with differences in conceptual meaning, objectives, and structural characteristics. Since its elevation to a national strategy, there has been a notable transformation in governance perspectives and patterns. With the proposal of China's Modernization, the strategy has gained new guidance. Therefore, it is essential to use Chinese modernization as a framework to re-evaluate this strategy, identifying its attribute trajectory and essential prerequisites. We should promote high-quality population development to optimize implementation conditions, strengthen the modernization of national governance to consolidate mechanisms, and effectively extend and realize new development momentum. Currently, it is critical to improve population governance, embrace an active ageing perspective, and create a diversified governance resource framework to expedite the enhancement of the implementation environment for the national ageing strategy.

Observations of Chinese Culture of Marriage and Childbearing in the Context of Low Fertility

Song Jian, Liu Shiwen, Tang Tianrong

2024, 48(5): 17-30.

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Constructing a new culture of marriage and childbearing (CMC) has been widely valued by China in recent years. However, there is still a lack of consensus on basic issues such as the definition and characteristics of the CMC. By drawing on cultural paradigm and related theories, we construct a conceptual framework of CMC, integrating the macro and micro levels, as well as two dimensions of cognition and practice, and define CMC as people's values and behaviors related to marriage and childbearing, along with corresponding social norms and customs. By using Etic and Emic Analysis, we first observe CMC in the context of societal changes, revealing that China's marriage and parenting culture exhibits a blend of traditional resilience and modern adaptability, demonstrating characteristics of both tradition and modernity. Then, based on the data from the National “Observation Notes on CMC” collected in 2024, we examine the CMC from the perspective of young people, revealing changes in the internal mechanism of CMC. In this context, we suggest that the construction of CMC in the new era should follow two basic principles: the continuity in the historical dimension and the unity in reality dimension.

Multilayer Factors and Multimorbidity Resilience among Older Adults in Rural China: A Longitudinal Study in Anhui Province

Li Shuzhuo, Guo Jin, Wang Jie

2024, 48(5): 31-49.

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Multimorbidity poses a global public health challenge. The resilience of older adults with multimorbidity reflects their ability to maintain a healthy life. Therefore, examining the factors influencing the resilience contributes to achieving healthy ageing. This study uses data from the seventh and eighth waves of Anhui longitudinal survey conducted by the Institute for Population and Development Studies of Xi'an Jiaotong University to explore the influencing factors of the resilience of older adults with multimorbidity and its changes. The findings indicate that over 40% of rural older adults suffer from multimorbidity. Older adults who are younger and have more children are associated with higher resilience in the cross-sectional analysis. Socioeconomic status, exercise frequency, religious belief, self-reported health, old-age care institutions in the community, and the natural environment affect the resilience of older adults with multimorbidity, both in cross-sectional and longitudinal changes. Increased public sports services in the community can contribute to resilience improvement. These findings suggest that there should be a shift from prognosis to prevention and an increase in age-friendly construction for older adults to promote health and well-being in later life.

Age Identity and Social Participation of Older Adults in China

Wang Lu, Chen Lu

2024, 48(5): 50-66.

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Using data from the 2018 and 2020 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS), this study defines age identity by comparing perceived old age with chronological age and measures social participation across economic, volunteer, religious, and leisure activities. We employ the instrumental variable method to explore the impact of age identity on the social participation of older adults. The results show that positive age identity significantly promotes the social participation of older adults, primarily by improving their health and strengthening their social adaptability. This increase in social participation is most evident in economic, volunteer, and leisure activities. The impact of positive age identity on social participation is more pronounced among older women than among older men. A higher level of positive age identity is associated with increased social participation among older adults aged 60 to 69 years old. However, when the level of positive age perception is higher, it has no significant effect on social participation among older adults aged 70 to 79 years old.

The Influence of Intergenerational Living Arrangements on Family Care Vulnerability of Chinese Older Adults

Liang Lixia, Huang Yan

2024, 48(5): 67-81.

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Intergenerational living arrangements reflecting the family organization structure shape differentiated family care practices and significantly affect the vulnerability of family care for older adults. Using the 2018 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) and an Ordered Logit regression model, this study analyzes the impact of intergenerational living arrangements on the vulnerability of family care for older adults and its mechanisms. The study reveals that the family care for older adults in China generally exhibits characteristics of moderate to high vulnerability, with the intergenerational living arrangements of families with older adults predominantly featuring close intergenerational proximity. Compared to intergenerational coresidence and long-distance living arrangements, living adjacent to adult children shows the lowest vulnerability, although this conclusion varies across different groups. The optimal intergenerational living distance is within the same district/county but not the same street/township, followed by within the same street/township but not the same village/neighborhood committee. Adult children's emotional support plays a relative mediating role between intergenerational living arrangements and the vulnerability of family care for older adults.

Can Digital Economy Affect the Career Transition of Low-skilled Workers?

Yuan Xin, Wang Lijing, Fang Shoulin

2024, 48(5): 82-97.

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The digital economy has a profound impact on employment. It provides more opportunities to low-skilled workers. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of digital economy on the career transition of low-skilled workers by employing a binary Logit model. The findings indicate that digital economy significantly increases the odds ratio of their career transition of low-skilled workers. Notably, low-skilled workers who are from agricultural households or located in the eastern and central regions experience a substantial boost in the career transition. The study identifies two key mechanisms driving this impact: employment effects and income effects. Moreover, low-skilled workers with higher level of capability or training experiences are more likely to transition to new careers due to the digital economy. Digital economy enhances the occupational reputation of low-skilled workers, and promotes their advancement into high and medium-low prestige occupations. Strengthening employment services, providing entrepreneurship policies, and offering skill trainings are recommended.

The Cumulative Effect of Residence Duration on the Settlement Intention of the Older Generation Migrants

Liang Hong

2024, 48(5): 98-112.

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The older generation of migrants face the decision of whether to settle in the destination, and their settlement intention is an important basis for predicting their future settlement. Based on the 2012-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS2012-2018), this article focuses on analyzing the cumulative effect of residence duration on their settlement intention. It has been found that the older generation migrants have a significantly stronger settlement intention, and have been staying in the destination for a long time. Their settlement intention significantly increases with the extension of their residence duration. The residence duration moderates the impact of other factors on the settlement intention of the older generation migrants. It strengthens the positive impact of higher education and having medical insurance and the negative impact of agricultural household registration and overtime work, but weakens the positive impact of the size and type of core families. The main and moderating effects of residence duration on the settlement intention of the older generation migrants can be deeply understood through the retention selection mechanism of migrants from the theoretical perspective of cumulative advantages and cumulative disadvantages.

Couples' Filial Piety and Childbearing Behavior: A Recurrent Event Survival Analysis

Zhao Xiaohang, Xie Yu

2024, 48(5): 113-128.

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The Second Demographic Transition Theory suggests that childbearing behavior is closely related to cultural ideations. Using several waves of data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study employs recurrent event survival analysis to examine the relationship between couples' filial piety and childbearing behavior. Findings show that both spouses' clan-oriented filial piety is significantly associated with a higher fertility hazard after marriage, particularly for having a second and third child. Intergenerational filial piety, however, shows no significant association. An increase in the ideal number of children is a key channel through which the clan-oriented filial piety promotes childbearing behavior. In counties where clan culture is more pervasive, the positive relationship between husbands' clan-oriented filial piety and fertility hazard is stronger. A robustness check using panel data to mitigate reverse causality confirms the reliability of the main conclusions. The decline of clan-oriented filial piety provides a cultural explanation for low fertility. Reforming and promoting clan-oriented filial piety may help increase fertility.

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