Population Research

On the Statistical Standard, Intensity, and Age Patterns of Migration and Floating Population in China

Ding Jinhong, Huang Xiaoli, Han Yulu, Chen Yihao

2025, 49(1): 3-19.

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By combining the places of residence at present, five years ago and at birth, and the place of household registration from census tabulations, migrations in China can be divided into basic categories including long-term migration, short-term migration, direct migration, nominal migration and circulation. Based on both macro and micro data from 2020 census, the scale and intensity of various types of inter-provincial migration are estimated, revealing differences in cultural stickiness and institutional resistance at both origin and destination. To avoid ambiguity, it is recommended that “Inter-X Migration” stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries of level X but not crossing the boundaries of upper level, “Intra-X Migration” stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries below level X, “Cross-X Migration”stands for the migration crossing the area boundaries of level X and above. The Courgeau model indicates that the Crude Migration Intensity (CMI) for lifelong migration in China is 49.5%, while the CMI for five-year migration is 21.0%, showing that Chinese people are becoming more migratory as urbanization progresses. The Rogers age patterns of migration also correspond to contemporary China with some peculiarities in the middle and older age peak. The high proportion of adolescents in nominal migration means that the household registration system still prevents the descendants of migrants from settling down de jure.

Temporal-Spatial Pattern of One-Person Households in China: Three Characteristics and Influencing Factors

Li Ting, Hua Jie, Duan Chengrong

2025, 49(1): 20-36.

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Exploring the temporal-spatial evolution of one-person households (OPH) promotes the understanding of the transformation of families in China. Utilizing the 1‰ sampling data from the population censuses, this study aims to describe the temporal-spatial patterns of OPH in China and the related influencing factors over the past 20 years. Results reveal three main characteristics: the eastern coastal economic belt, developed cities, and the Qinghai-Tibet region exhibit relatively higher OPH percentages; rapid growth initially occurred in the eastern and northeastern regions before spreading nationwide; overall growth is primarily driven by young adults and then by older adults. The GTWR model further indicates that the modernization process, along with China's demographic transformation, has shaped this pattern, influenced by both subjective willingness and passive choices. In light of this new trend, efforts should focus on promoting family-oriented internal migration, alleviating the youth marriage squeeze, and enhancing the pension system in a multi-dimensional manner.

The Effect of Number of Children on Expected Retirement Age of Parents: A Fertility Policy Adjustment Perspective

Xu Yingdong, Yu Xiao

2025, 49(1): 37-52.

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After the official implementation of the policy to gradually raise the statutory retirement age, we utilize data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and employ the number of children of parents' siblings as an exclusive instrumental variable to empirically test the fertility policy heterogeneous treatment effect of the number of children on parents' expected retirement age based on the generalized Roy model. The findings reveal a delay effect of having multiple children on parents' expected retirement age. As the constraint imposed by the fertility policy on having multiple children increases, the effect becomes more pronounced. Simulation results regarding fertility policy adjustments suggest that, following the Universal Two-Child Policy and Three-Child Fertility Policy, the increase in the number of parents having multiple children further strengthens the delay effect of having multiple children on parents' expected retirement age. In light of this, governments and employers may consider taking into account employees' family situations regarding children, so as to refine the detailed implementation measures for employees' flexible early or delayed retirement. Meanwhile, governments at all levels should accelerate the improvement of the fertility support policy system and incentive mechanisms.

Population Trends and Population Development Positioning in China's Border Areas

Xu Shiying, Cai Guolan

2025, 49(1): 53-69.

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The land border areas are key regions for the country to maintain territorial sovereignty, integrity, and security. Since the new century, China has made great achievements in its modernization drive, greatly improving its national strength, and fundamentally altering its border security situation. At the same time, the trend of regional population increase and decrease in China has been directly reflected in these border areas. The seventh national census data show that the total population in border areas across the country has begun to decrease, which has attracted widespread attention from Chinese society. Based on census data, the population change trends in border areas are presented, and the current security situation faced by China's border areas is analyzed. The research results indicate that the current population changes in China's border areas are an inevitable result of China's modernization process and will not adversely impact national defense and security in these areas. In the new era, we need to accelerate urbanization in border areas, reduce the populations engaged in agriculture and animal husbandry, improve the level of economic and social development in border areas, leverage China's modernization to drive the common development of neighboring countries, jointly build a community of shared future for mankind on both sides of the border, and create a higher level of security and stability in border areas.

The Inter-provincial Mobility and Distribution Changes of the Unique Ethnic Minorities in Yunnan: Based on Census Data

Luo Chun

2025, 49(1): 70-84.

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The unique ethnic minorities in Yunnan refer to the “indigenous peoples” who have lived in Yunnan for generations. Before the 1980s, almost all of these ethnic groups resided in Yunnan Province. With the reform and opening up and increased population mobility throughout the country, these minority populations began to migrate outside of Yunnan province, ushering in an era of integration into the broader Chinese nation. Census data show that by 2020, the proportion of the population living in Yunnan among the 15 unique ethnic minorities nationwide has dropped to 88.93%, which is 10.09 percentage points lower than that in 1982. It was found that the inter-provincial migration of these minorities preferred Guizhou and Sichuan province, followed by Guangdong, Zhejiang, and other eastern developed provinces. According to the study, the leading factors contributing to the continuous increase in inter-provincial migration among Yunnan's ethnic minorities are not only the rise in population migration, but also the natural growth of these ethnic groups outside the province, as well as shifts in population distribution between provinces and among ethnic groups due to changes in administrative divisions and ethnic composition.

Exploring the Relationship among Population Ageing, Elderly Care Industry Development, and Economic Growth

Mu Huaizhong, Zhang Xianzheng

2025, 49(1): 85-100.

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Chinese modernization coincides with the acceleration of population ageing, and therefore faces a scientific choice regarding economic development paths and promotion methods. In the context of an ageing population, the elderly care industry will continue to develop, thereby promoting economic growth. Based on China's provincial panel data spanning from 2013 to 2022, this paper analyzes the impact and mechanism of population ageing and the development of the elderly care industry on economic growth. The results show that the deepening of population ageing inhibits economic growth, whereas the development of the elderly care industry promotes economic growth. Mechanism analysis indicates that the development of the elderly care industry plays a crucial regulatory role in the relationship between population ageing and economic growth, which will significantly weaken the negative impact of population ageing on economic growth. Heterogeneity analysis shows that there are significant differences in the relationships among population ageing, development of the elderly care industry, and economic growth in different regions, and the linkage effect between population ageing and the development of the elderly care industry only plays a significant role in regulating economic growth in the western region. It is imperative to promote innovation and development within the elderly care industry, strengthen regional coordinated development, optimize the social security system, implement refined policy management, and achieve coordinated development among population ageing, the elderly care industry, and economic growth.

Impact of Hukou System Reform on Fertility Decisions of Migrants: A Public Service Perspective

Song Yueping, Wang Zhili, Wu Hantao

2025, 49(1): 101-116.

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Utilizing the 2014 Hukou reform as a quasi-natural experiment and applying the difference-in-differences design to the 2019 National Population and Family Dynamic Monitoring Survey data, this study examines the impact of Hukou reform on fertility intentions and behaviors of migrant women and their mechanisms in China. The results show that the reform significantly increased fertility intentions and behaviors, particularly among those who got married after the reform and those with low educational levels. Further analysis reveals three mechanisms: improved fertility rights and benefits through free prenatal and newborn health services, enhanced employment protection via maternity leave policies, and transformed attitudes towards reproduction. This study expands the research perspective on how fertility support influences fertility decisions, offering important policy implications for Hukou reform and migrant population development.

Impact of Premarital Cohabitation on Stability of First Marriage in China: An Analysis Based on CFPS Data

Lu Jiehua, Gu Yuchen

2025, 49(1): 117-132.

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In line with the expectation of the Second Demographic Transition, premarital cohabitation is becoming increasingly common in China. Based on China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data from 2010 to 2022, this study adopts the Cox proportional hazards regression model to analyze the influence of premarital cohabitation on the stability of first marriage and its mechanisms. This study also tests several competitive hypotheses, including the Trial Marriage Hypothesis, the Experience Hypothesis, the Selectivity Hypothesis, and the Diffusion Hypothesis. The findings show that the risk of divorce at first marriage is significantly higher for those who have experienced premarital cohabitation, and the negative effect of premarital cohabitation on the stability of first marriage is still robust after removing the self-selection effect. The cultural meaning and popularity of premarital cohabitation varies across different groups. Further analysis reveals the moderating effects of birth cohorts and education levels. Overall, premarital cohabitation still has a negative effect on the stability of first marriage in the Chinese context. However, as cohabitation gradually spreads among recent birth cohorts and highly educated groups, its negative influence is weakened, supporting the main argument of the Diffusion Hypothesis.

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