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Late Marriage and Non-Marriage in China: Trends, Characteristics, and Determinants

Zhang Xianling, Chen Jiaju

Population Research 2025, 49 (3): 36-51.

Abstract （5268）

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Based on data from population censuses and a specialized survey, this paper systematically examines the trends, characteristics, and determinants of late marriage and non-marriage in China from 1990 to 2020. The findings reveal that the size of the never-married population aged 30 and above has been growing since 1990, with a larger absolute increase among men but a faster growth rate among women. The urban never-married population surpassed the rural never-married population after 2010. Among the never-married population aged 30 and above, those with a junior high school education constitute the largest increment, while those with a college degree or higher exhibit the fastest growth rate. In addition, the lifelong never-married population has grown, with men outnumbering women and in rural areas exceeding in urban areas. While the largest increment occurred among those with lower educational attainment, recent years have witnessed accelerated increases in both the size and prevalence of non-marriage among highly educated groups. Further analysis reveals that never-married people aged 30 and above exhibit low marriage intentions and demonstrate passive dating behaviors, which are likely to further depress marriage rates and elevate late marriage and non-marriage rates. Structural mismatches in marriage markets and economic pressures are the predominant factors influencing marital decision-making. The study proposes marital support policies focusing on expanding partner-matching networks and reducing the economic costs of marriage.

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China's Demographic Future in the New Era: A Forecasting Analysis of National and Urban-Rural Population Changes

Zhang Xianling, Zhai Zhenwu, Chen Wei

Population Research 2026, 50 (2): 3-20.

Abstract （3861）

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China is currently undergoing a profound transformation in its demographic development, characterized by very low fertility rate,rapid ageing, and negative population growth. These demographic shifts have significantly reshaped the interaction between population and socioeconomic systems in the country. In this context, forecasting future population trends constitutes a critical prerequisite for understanding future population dynamics and addressing its impacts on socioeconomic development. Existing research on China's future population trends has predominantly focused on national-level analyses, with little attention paid to regional disparities between urban and rural areas. Using the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this study employs the Cohort Component Method to simulate population trends both at the national and urban-rural levels from 2025 to 2100.

To capture the range of possible future population trajectories under varying fertility regimes, three scenarios are established. In the low scenario, fertility would continue to drop to extremely low level at 0.75 by 2035, while fertility would slowly rise to higher levels at 1.3 and 1.6 respectively by 2050 in the context of varying degrees of fertility policy incentives under medium and high scenarios. Results indicate that China's population will continue to shrink throughout the 21st century, declining to 1.18-1.28 billion by 2050, falling below 1 billion between 2063 and 2078, and further decreasing to 0.45-0.80 billion by 2100. The number of annual births in China is expected to follow a downward trajectory throughout the 21st century. Although a recovery in women's fertility rate may drive a fluctuating rebound in birth numbers, the long-term downward trend is unlikely to be altered due to the substantial challenges and limited potential for increasing fertility rate, as well as the ongoing reduction in the number of women of childbearing age. Moreover, fluctuations in the births will affect the size of school-age population through cohort transmission. Projections suggest that China's school-age population will experience a sharp reduction over the next 15 years, with substantial implications for the allocation of educational resources. Additionally, while the size and share of the working-age population aged 15-64 will fluctuate slightly, both are expected to trend downward during this century. Meanwhile, China will witness an acceleration in its population ageing. The proportion of elderly population aged 65 and above is projected to exceed 30% in the mid-to-late 2040s. By then, the size of elderly population will exceed 380 million, making China the country with the largest elderly population in the world.

The findings also highlight an increasing divergence between urban and rural population. The urban population is expected to continue growing over the next decade, remaining above 940 million until 2050, while the rural population will maintain a sustained shrinking trend throughout the century. Both urban and rural areas will experience a notable decline in the child population aged 0-14 within the next five years, with a reduction of approximately one-fifth in urban areas and around two-fifths in rural areas. The ageing process in rural areas is ahead of that in urban areas, although the urban elderly population will have a longer growth period and a higher peak value.

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China-Specific Factors Affecting Low Fertility

Zhai Zhenwu, Huang Zhuo, Zhang Yiyang

Population Research 2025, 49 (3): 52-65.

Abstract （3792）

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Diverging from patterns observed in developed countries, China has experienced a uniquely rapid fertility decline occurring at an earlier socioeconomic development level than would be predicted. Based on data from a special survey on groups who remain unmarried, childless, or have few children in China, this study identifies three distinctive factors contributing to China's ultra-low fertility: childcare challenges, education anxiety, and housing cost burden. Against the backdrop of a rapid “refamilialization” of caregiving responsibilities, the nurturing capacity of families has weakened while parental obligations have intensified. The intersection of traditional values emphasizing education and an intensely competitive selection system subjects parents to growing pressure and responsibilities in their children's education. Meanwhile, population concentration, unequal housing renter-owner rights, and inadequate housing security have sustained high housing costs. These factors significantly increase the financial, time, and psychological costs associated with raising children, resulting in suppressed fertility intentions. Effective pronatalist policies should remove barriers to fertility decision-making and target these three constraints unique to China's childbearing-age population.

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Reconstructing the Concept of Family: A Response to Low Fertility and Transitional Society

Song Jian, Chen Wenqi

Population Research 2025, 49 (6): 17-30.

Abstract （2811）

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Reconstructing the concept of family can better respond to the challenges posed by low fertility and the transitional society in this era. The article traces the formation and evolution logic of the concept of family, reviews the efforts made by the academic community so far to reconstruct the concept, and puts forward the redefined concept. The concept of “family” in China was formed through a hybrid system and ideological framework that emerged from the dual logic of the “family” in the patriarchal system and the “household” in governance, and was shaped by the transplantation of modern concepts and the changes in contemporary society. The evolution of the Western concept of family provides a necessary historical reference for understanding the institutional dependence and cultural adaptation issues of the concept of family generally used in China. The academic community both at home and abroad are reconfiguring the family in terms of theory, methods, and policy adjustments, with focus shifting from “household” to “kinship”. The article redefines the concept of family as: “A network of resource sharing and risk allocation formed by individuals connected through kinship and quasi-kinship relationships such as marriage, blood ties, or adoption”, which can be illustrated as a nested circle that expands from the inside out, consisting of “household-shared family—functional family—kinship circle family”.

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An Analysis of the Progression of Marriage and Childbearing and Its Heterogeneity among Chinese Women of Reproductive Age

Feng Ting, Li Yuzhu, Zhang Cuiling, Zheng Zhenzhen

Population Research 2025, 49 (6): 82-99.

Abstract （2770）

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This study employs data from the 2017 National Fertility Survey and applies accelerated failure time models and the generalized F distribution to analyze three sequential life-course events among Chinese women—first marriage, transition from first marriage to first birth, and transition from first to second birth—by urban-rural residence, birth cohort, and educational attainment. Results indicate that in younger cohorts, the impact of educational attainment on timing of first marriage and probabilities of remaining unmarried has become increasingly pronounced. Regarding the interval between first marriage and first birth, differences across urban-rural and educational lines have narrowed, suggesting a tightening linkage between marriage and childbearing, and a weakening heterogeneity. For the transition from first to second birth, the residential and educational gap has also substantially diminished. Overall, residential and educational heterogeneity plays its most significant role during the first marriage transition, with delayed first marriage emerging as the primary bottleneck contributing to postponed fertility and declining birth rates.

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China's Household Development Trends in the New Era: A Forecasting Analysis of Changes in Household Number, Size, and Structure

Li Ting, Wang Qiang

Population Research 2026, 50 (2): 21-35.

Abstract （2601）

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Amid the intensifying structural challenges of low fertility and population aging in China, conventional population projections fall short of capturing the evolving dynamics of households—the fundamental units of society. As a result, these projections offer an insufficient empirical basis for informing comprehensive public policy formulation. Addressing this gap, the present study conducts a dynamic simulation of future household changes in China, drawing upon the core framework of the Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections (ProFamy). This study integrates four key modules—mortality, fertility, marriage, and leaving home/household formation—to simulate the trajectory of household change in China over the next three decades.

The findings reveal a profound and multifaceted transformation of Chinese households. In terms of quantity and size, although the total number of households continues to rise, average household size steadily declines, reflecting a persistent trend toward smaller household units. One-person households are projected to become the dominant household type. Two-person households show a modest increase in absolute number but a declining share in the overall household structure. By contrast, households comprising three or more persons exhibit sustained declines in both number and proportion.

At the structural level, significant shifts are observed in the age composition and functional characteristics of households. First, elderly households—those containing members aged 65 and above—are becoming increasingly common. Notably, households including the oldest-old (aged 80 and above) are growing at a particularly rapid pace. Solo-living among the elderly and two-person elderly-only households will become increasingly common. Second, the proportion of households with children (aged 18 and below) is systematically declining. Third, the number of young adult households—those comprising individuals aged 20 to 49—is expected to increase initially but eventually decline, accompanied by a sustained rise in young adults living alone. A related and critical development is the pronounced decrease in both the number and share of childbearing households—defined here as households containing a married woman of reproductive age. Fourth, while nuclear families are decreasing in number and stem families are increasing slightly, both categories are losing ground in terms of their relative share among all household types.

These trends point to three major structural risks facing Chinese households. The first is the simultaneous growth in the number of households and the contraction in household size, which together weaken traditional family functions such as caregiving and intra-household economic support. The second is the impending inversion of the household age structure, wherein elderly households are projected to substantially outnumber households with children. The third is the contraction of the young adult demographic and the associated decline in childbearing households, undermining both social vitality and the foundations of demographic reproduction. Collectively, these changes pose considerable challenges to the planning and delivery of public services, the robustness of the social security system, and the formulation of medium- and long-term socioeconomic strategies. The findings underscore the urgent need for policy frameworks to move beyond individual-level demographic projections and proactively adapt to the shifting structure and needs of households.

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From Core Cities to Metropolitan Areas: The Evolution and Trends of China's Unique Population Concentric Ring Structure

Yin Deting, Ji Fangzhou, Zhu Xiaokun, Liu Mengchen

Population Research 2025, 49 (6): 31-52.

Abstract （2574）

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Based on data from China's seven national population censuses (1953-2020), WorldPop, and World Population Prospects 2024, this study employs the “Five Forces” analytical framework to longitudinally examine the formation, evolution, and trends of the population concentric ring structure in China's metropolitan areas through long-term, multi-layer dynamic analysis and multi-model cross-verification. The research aims to advance the study of metropolitan population distribution toward “Developing Chinese Theory Based on Chinese Reality.” The findings reveal that the layered nature of population distribution in China's metropolitan areas has continued to intensify, with distinct typological characteristics. Early-developing and late-developing metropolitan areas exhibit differentiation both between and within types. The population center of gravity in these areas, after undergoing shifts, has gradually regressed, reflecting the spatial resilience of population distribution from a long-term perspective. Under the influence of China's unique governance approach—the sequential implementation of medium- and long-term plans—an orderly evolutionary model of the population concentric ring structure in metropolitan areas has been shaped. Based on these insights, this study identifies four critical issues that require urgent attention in the planning of China's metropolitan population layers and proposes governance strategies, providing both empirical and theoretical support for advancing spatial population governance in metropolitan areas.

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An Exploration of the “Name” and the “Substance” of Classical Demographic Concepts and Indicators: A Case Study of “Infant Mortality Rate”

Zhai Zhenwu, Huang Zhuo

Population Research 2025, 49 (6): 3-16.

Abstract （2547）

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Due to disparities in national realities and linguistic systems between China and the West, the introduction and application of demographic indicators borrowed from Western scholarship often suffer from problems such as mechanical adoption and inconsistencies between name and substance. These problems are mainly manifested in literal translation, conceptual over-generalization, inconsistent indicator terminology, and discrepancies between indicator names and their computational definitions. A typical example is the term “Infant Mortality Rate”, which has long been rendered in Chinese as “婴儿死亡率”. However, this translation is misleading. By tracing the historical development of “Infant Mortality Rate” and examining the original expressions in English-language demographic literature, we find that terms denoting similar mortality indicators are strictly differentiated in wording when referring to “rates” or “probabilities”, and that all major computational approaches to the “Infant Mortality Rate” adhere to the core principle of probability. However, this essential distinction has been completely obscured in its Chinese rendering. We propose that terms prone to misuse or conceptual confusion should be localized and refined in accordance with China's empirical realities. Such efforts are essential to ensuring the accuracy of classical demographic concepts and indicators in the Chinese context.

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Professor Zha Ruichuan: A Monument in China's Demography

Duan Chengrong

Population Research 2025, 49 (6): 53-58.

Abstract （2525）

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Emotional Cohesion and Cultural Endogeny: Research on the Leisure Community Day Care Model for Older Adults

Ming Yan, Li Yuehua, Yang Jie, Zhang Xianling

Population Research 2025, 49 (6): 100-112.

Abstract （2496）

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China is experiencing rapid population ageing, with the imbalance between supply and demand for elderly care services becoming increasingly apparent. Based on field research in Y Community of Meitan County, Zun Yi City, Guizhou Province, this paper proposes an innovative day care model for older adults emerging in less developed regions-the Leisure Community. It is an informal day care model grounded in local cultural practices and neighborhood social interactions, utilizing daily leisure activities as medium while providing both emotional comfort and caregiving functions. The paper employs diverse theories to examine the formation mechanism and long-term operational logic of this model. The findings reveal that the formation of Leisure Community relies on five key mechanisms: social capital accumulation, emotional mutual nurturing, spatial embedding, health maintenance, and cultural driving forces. Its long-term sustainable operation is ensured by the cyclical reproduction of social capital, place innovation and cost control, autonomous operation and self-worth, as well as spatio-temporal reconstruction and intergenerational win-win. Finally, this paper clarifies the functional positioning and operational boundaries of Leisure Community, and puts forward the implications of this model for exploring more diversified local cultural elderly care practices.

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Patterns and Determinants of Living Alone of the Young Adults in China

Duan Yuanyuan, Chen Wei

Population Research 2025, 49 (4): 66-82.

Abstract （2412）

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In the context of rising prevalence of living alone among young adults, this study uses one-per-thousand sample data from the 2000, 2010, and 2020 population censuses to examine trends and determinants of living alone among young adults aged from 20 to 49 in China over the past two decades. Decomposition methods are employed to assess the contributions of marriage behavior, population mobility, and solo living feasibility to the period trends and disparities by gender and place of residence. Results indicate that improved solo living feasibility and population mobility were the dominant drivers of the rising prevalence of living alone among young adults. Gender differences in solo living feasibility and marriage behaviors explain higher prevalence of living alone among men than among women, while enhanced mobility primarily accounts for higher prevalence of living alone in urban areas than in rural areas. Across the life course, mobility and delayed marriage drive rising prevalence of living alone during early adulthood, whereas solo living feasibility dominates in middle adulthood. Family-related social policies must address future trends and the heterogeneous trajectories of living alone.

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The Impact of Subjective Social Status on Older Adults' Consumption and the Mediating Role of Internet Use

Hai Long, Cui Yanghao, Wang Rui

Population Research 2025, 49 (6): 113-125.

Abstract （2362）

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In the era of rapid population aging, promoting older adults' consumption and vigorously developing the silver economy have become crucial strategies for expanding domestic demand. Drawing on seven-wave data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) between 2010 and 2022, this study empirically investigates the impact of subjective social status on older adults' consumption. The results show that an improvement in subjective social status significantly increases overall consumption, enjoyment-oriented consumption, and the proportion of enjoyment-oriented consumption among older adults. Quantile regression results show that subjective social status has a stronger effect on the enjoyment-oriented consumption level of older adults in higher enjoyment-oriented consumption quantiles. Mediation analysis further indicates that Internet use partially mediates this relationship, with indirect effects exceeding 20% for total and enjoyment-oriented consumption levels but remaining below 10% for the share of enjoyment-oriented consumption. The study suggests enhancing older adults' subjective social status, advancing digital inclusion initiatives, and fostering an age-friendly consumption environment to fully unleash their consumption potential.

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Gender Bargaining in Family Fertility Decision-Making and the Realization of Fertility Intention

Qing Shisong, Wang Jiahao, Lu Xi

Population Research 2025, 49 (5): 115-128.

Abstract （2308）

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In the context of intertwined challenges of low fertility and gender equality, clarifying the intra-household fertility decision-making mechanisms is of great significance. Drawing on data from the 2018 and 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study adopts a couple-centered perspective and applies the Diagonal Reference Model to quantify the relative influence of husband's and wife's fertility preferences on actual fertility behavior, thereby uncovering the underlying gender power dynamics. The results indicate that family fertility behavior is highly contingent upon the consistency of both partners' intentions, with the concordance of spousal preferences exerting a significant impact on behavioral outcomes. In cases of discordance, the husband's fertility intention tends to predominate, reflecting his relatively dominant role in reproductive decision-making. Further analysis indicates that having a son, residing in an urban area, and a wife's higher educational attainment relative to her husband may enhance the wife's bargaining power to some extent, but they are insufficient to fundamentally alter the gender-based power structure deeply entrenched in patriarchal culture. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of family fertility decision-making mechanisms and offers insights for the formulation and optimization of fertility-supportive policies.

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Public Transfer Payments, Social Pension Insurance, and Household Savings Rate under Population Ageing

Liu Pengfei, Zhang Li

Population Research 2025, 49 (5): 85-101.

Abstract （2210）

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By extending the classical Overlapping Generations model, this study examines the effects of population ageing, public transfer payments, and social pension insurance on household savings rate, using data from the 2015~2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). The findings suggest: First, household savings rate declines with population ageing, whereas limited public transfer payments and low levels of social pension insurance significantly increase household savings rate. Second, the effect of social pension insurance on household savings rate depends on residents' risk preferences: among non-agricultural households, higher risk preferences weaken its saving-promoting effect, while agricultural households consistently exhibit a positive effect. Third, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negative effect of population ageing on household savings rate is more pronounced in rural and central-western regions, where public transfer payments and social pension insurance exert stronger positive effects. The study enriches the understanding of China's high household savings rate and offers important policy implications for addressing population ageing.

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Enjoy Old Age: Smart Elderly Health Care and Enjoyment-oriented Consumption of the Older Adults

Yuan Xin, Tu Kunpeng, Jin Niu, Wang Lijing

Population Research 2025, 49 (5): 3-18.

Abstract （2204）

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The population ageing has pushed the older adults from the edge to the center of the consumption stage. Whether the pilot policies for smart elderly health care can promote the enjoyment-oriented consumption of the older adults has become an important issue. Based on the unbalanced panel data of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2014 to 2022, this paper explores the impact and mechanism of smart elderly health care on the enjoyment-oriented consumption of the older adults. The results reveal that smart elderly health care has significantly promoted the enjoyment-oriented consumption of the older adults. After a series of robustness tests, this conclusion still holds. Mechanism analysis shows that smart elderly health care increases the enjoyment-oriented consumption of the older adults by reducing medical expenses and decreasing precautionary savings. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promotion effect of smart elderly health care on the enjoyment-oriented consumption of the older adults is more significant in the eastern region, among internet users and highly educated people. Therefore, sustained policies for smart elderly health care are recommended.

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How Does Artificial Intelligence Development Affect Employment Quality?

Shen Ke, Shi Xiaofeng, Zhang Anni

Population Research 2026, 50 (1): 51-67.

Abstract （2176）

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As a core technology driving technological revolution and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence (AI) is profoundly reshaping the labor market. While existing research has extensively examined its impact on employment quantity, studies focusing on employment quality remain relatively limited. Given the breakthrough advances in AI technologies and their deepening penetration across industries, a systematic investigation into how AI development affects workers' employment quality carries significant theoretical and practical relevance,particularly for advancing the policy goal of “promoting high-quality and full employment.”

In this context, this study aims to clarify the impact of AI development on workers' overall employment quality and its sub-dimensions, explore the underlying mechanisms, and examine heterogeneity across different groups. To address these issues, this study combines city-level AI patent data with individual-level data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), constructing a comprehensive employment quality index at the worker level and an AI patent density indicator at the city level. A fixed-effects model is employed for baseline regression analysis. To address potential endogeneity concerns, this study further applies an instrumental variable approach, the Heckman two-step method, and an exogenous shock identification strategy. In addition, a series of robustness checks are conducted.

The main findings are as follows. First, AI development significantly improves workers' overall employment quality： a one-standard-deviation increase in city-level AI patent density raises employment quality by 2.21%. This result holds after accounting for endogeneity and conducting multiple robustness tests. Second, analysis of the sub-dimensions of employment quality shows that AI development significantly increases labor income, improves welfare security, enhances job stability, and reduces the risk of overwork, while its effect on job satisfaction is statistically insignificant. Third, mechanism analysis indicates that AI development improves employment quality mainly by promoting occupational upgrading, strengthening human capital accumulation, and improving job-skill matching. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the employment quality enhancement effect of AI development varies across groups. The positive effects are more prominent among workers with lower employment quality, female workers, and those with stronger non-cognitive skills.

Based on these findings, this study proposes several policy implications： actively expanding new forms of human-machine collaboration to create more high-quality jobs; building a lifelong learning system to facilitate workers' skill upgrading; and integrating non-cognitive skill development into the education system to enhance workers' comparative advantages in human-machine collaboration. Together, these measures can help achieve broad-based improvement in employment quality in the AI era. In summary, through rigorous empirical analysis, this study provides new micro-level evidence and theoretical explanations for understanding the evolution of employment quality in the AI era. It deepens theoretical insights into the role of technology in empowering workers, and offers more targeted policy implications for guiding AI development toward the promotion of high-quality employment and the creation of a more equitable labor market.

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How Does Employment-Retirement Trajectory Differentiation during the Peri-retirement Period Shape Later-Life Health Disparities? Evidence from a Life Course Perspective

Zhu Huoyun, Chen Shiqiang, Gong Huafang

Population Research 2026, 50 (2): 52-67.

Abstract （2174）

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Population ageing in China has heightened concerns about health equality in later life. This study investigates how heterogeneous employment-retirement trajectories during the peri-retirement period shape later-life health disparities in China. Employment history and retirement arrangements are critical social determinants of health, while existing studies treat retirement as a discrete event rather than a dynamic process. From a life course perspective, we argue that health disparities in old age reflect the cumulative effects of distinct pathways out of the labour force. Using six waves (2011-2020) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we focus on the peri-retirement period (ages 45-63), which spans the statutory retirement ages in China. We apply sequence analysis and cluster analysis to identify typical employment-retirement trajectories, and estimate trajectory-specific life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) using Markov multistate models. To examine mechanisms, we use Shapley decomposition with counterfactual one-sided replacement to assess the contributions of health deterioration, recovery, and mortality to observed HLE disparities. We identify distinct trajectories by gender. Among men, four trajectories emerge: sustained agricultural work, formal non-agricultural employment with full retirement, long-term non-employment with full retirement, and sustained informal non-agricultural work. Among women, three trajectories emerge, with no equivalent sustained informal non-agricultural trajectory, reflecting gendered constraints in labour market participation. Substantial health disparities exist across these trajectory groups. Women have higher LE than men but slightly lower HLE, consistent with the gender health-survival paradox. The formal non-agricultural employment-full retirement group shows the most favourable LE and HLE, whereas the long-term non-employed group fares worst. As age rises, LE disparities across trajectories remain stable, while HLE disparities converge. Shapley decomposition shows that health deterioration and recovery capacity are the primary drivers of HLE disparities.

This study advances the life course research by reframing labor force exit as a dynamic process. Methodologically, it uses sequence analysis, multistate modelling, and counterfactual decomposition into a unified framework for trajectory identification, association estimation, and mechanism testing. The findings show that employment-retirement trajectories embody cumulative differences in income, social insurance coverage, and health resilience. In China's context, where social insurance schemes are stratified by employment type and sector, these trajectories reflect systematic differences in access to institutional protection. The results carry policy implications for China's ongoing gradual delay of statutory retirement ages. Targeted labor market support should be extended to peri-retirement workers, especially those in informal employment and long-term non-employment. Expanding social insurance coverage for disadvantaged groups and reducing institutional stratification in benefits could enhance health recovery capacity. Addressing gendered disadvantages requires recognising women's unpaid care work and ensuring more fair pension entitlements.

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From “Baby Boom” to “Ageing Boom”: Facts and Trends

Du Peng, Ma Qifeng

Population Research 2025, 49 (3): 3-19.

Abstract （2150）

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As the “ageing echo” of the “Baby Boom”, the “Ageing Boom” has not yet received sufficient scholarly attention. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the nation has experienced four distinct “Baby Boom” cohorts, which are projected to transform into “Ageing Boom” during the periods 2010-2018, 2022-2036, 2041-2054, and 2071-2079 respectively. Each “Ageing Boom” represents a peak in the growth of the new elderly population, and its cumulative and superimposed effects will drive China's ageing population through phased transformations characterized by sequential stages: ascent, peak, buffer, and decline. China's demographic ageing under the “Ageing Boom” paradigm exhibits both distinctive and general characteristics: a historically unprecedented population scale, asynchronous growth in size and proportion, ageing of the age structure, balancing of the gender structure, and steadily rising survival rates. Focusing on the ongoing second “Ageing Boom”, projections indicate that approximately 330 million individuals will enter old age, with urban residents and population with at least secondary education constituting the majority of this elderly cohort. These demographic shifts present dual implications—harboring developmental opportunities while simultaneously posing practical challenges that require prudent consideration and proactive responses.

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How Does the Spatial Distribution of High-Quality Compulsory Education Resources Affect Fertility Intentions? Evidence from 35 Major Chinese Cities

Zhang Anquan, Zou Lailiang, Ni Pengfei

Population Research 2026, 50 (1): 3-19.

Abstract （2139）

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China's urban fertility rate continues to decline. Reducing the costs associated with childbearing, childrearing, and educating children has become a core issue in population policy. The nine-year compulsory education stage, comprising primary and junior high school, constitutes a fundamental component of basic education. During this stage, families generally seek to ensure that their children can access relatively high-quality education to avoid falling behind at the starting point of schooling. However, the policy of “enrollment by school district and proximity-based admission” limits children's school options based on their residential location. Consequently, the spatial distribution of high-quality compulsory education schools within cities may directly influence households' education-related costs in areas such as housing, commuting, and extracurricular tutoring, thereby affecting fertility intentions. This study aims to empirically test these mechanisms and propose feasible approaches to enhance urban residents' fertility intentions.

Based on school rankings from multiple educational consulting platforms, this study constructs an index capturing the within-city spatial equity of high-quality compulsory education resources for a sample of 35 major Chinese cities. This index is subsequently merged with data from the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) to empirically assess its impact on urban residents' fertility intentions. The results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in the spatial equity index is associated with an approximately 5.4% higher level of fertility intentions. This finding remains robust across multiple sensitivity checks, including replacing the measurements of key variables and conducting random sampling regressions. Further mechanism analysis indicates that, for households with children aged 4 to 15, a one-standard-deviation increase in the equity index is associated with a decrease of about 20.7% and 12.8% in the unit price and market value of their houses, respectively. Simultaneously, the probability of respondents facing a heavier commuting burden decreases by approximately 2.4%, and the proportion of those whose heavier commuting burden is attributable to their children's education drops by about 6.5%. In addition, for households with children aged 7 to 15, expenditures on extracurricular tutoring decrease by around 4.8%.

Previous studies examine the relationship between residents' fertility intentions and their children's education primarily from the perspective of education costs or parents' educational preferences. This study investigates this relationship from the supply side. By focusing on the influence of spatial distribution of high-quality compulsory education resources on fertility intentions, this study provides empirical evidence for understanding the underlying link between fertility-supportive policies and educational development strategies.

The findings have three key policy implications. First, the spatial equity of high-quality compulsory education resources within cities should be enhanced. Second, measures such as improving school district management systems, optimizing transportation infrastructure and school bus services around campuses, and expanding affordable after-school programs should be implemented to reduce the additional costs families bear in housing, commuting, and extracurricular tutoring in pursuit of high-quality education. Third, education resources planning and coordination mechanisms aligned with demographic changes should be established to stabilize families' expectations regarding access to quality education.

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An “Event-Sequence-Time” Analysis of Marriage Delay

Song Jian, Tang Tianrong

Population Research 2026, 50 (2): 98-113.

Abstract （2135）

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The postponement of first marriage has become a salient demographic change in China. However, existing explanations remain divided and often conceptualize age at first marriage as a single outcome indicator, with insufficient attention to the life course processes underlying its formation. This study aims to clarify the mechanisms of delayed first marriage in China by distinguishing the differential effects of changes in life course sequencing and timing shifts on age at first marriage, while examining how individual endowments and family background shape marriage transitions.

Drawing on life course theory, the study proposes an integrated “event-sequence-time” analytical framework capturing both the processual and outcome dimensions of first marriage. Within this framework, two distinct mechanisms of marriage postponement are identified. The first is a sequence effect, whereby the standardized life course is altered and marriage is no longer treated as a necessary life event, reflecting a process of de-institutionalization in which marriage is actively postponed or forgone. The second is a timing effect, whereby the standardized sequence remains largely intact, but delays in preceding events or the lengthening of transition periods lead to a higher age at first marriage.

The analysis draws on pooled cross-sectional data from five waves of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2005, 2006, 2008, 2018, and 2021). The study examines the sequencing and timing of three key early-life events, namely graduation, entry into first job, and first marriage, and their variation across cohorts. Descriptive statistics based on the proposed framework are first used to identify dominant life course patterns. Binary logistic regression models then estimate how individual endowments and family background influence adherence to a standardized life course sequence. To isolate the timing effect and reduce confounding from prolonged schooling, accelerated failure time (AFT) models are used to examine the effects of individual endowments and family background on the transition duration from graduation to first marriage.

The findings show that more than three-quarters of respondents follow a standardized sequence of “graduation-first job-first marriage.” Across cohorts, the average ages at graduation, first job entry, and first marriage have all increased.Meanwhile, the transition time from graduation to first marriage has shortened across cohorts. Individuals with higher endowments are more likely to deviate from the standardized sequence and experience faster transitions into first marriage, whereas those from more advantaged family backgrounds are more likely to adhere to standardized sequences and have longer transition times. The sequence effect operates mainly among people with high individual endowments, while the timing effect is widespread across social groups. Overall, the postponement of first marriage in China mainly reflects timing effects rather than structural changes in the sequencing of life course events.

By integrating process and outcome dimensions, this study advances the understanding of marriage timing as a life course transition shaped by both event sequencing and timing dynamics. The findings suggest that policies to encourage age-appropriate marriage and childbearing in China need to consider the structured linkage between marriage, education, and employment, rather than focusing solely on marital or fertility-related interventions.

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Healthy Ageing in China: Measurement System, Spatiotemporal Patterns, and Optimization Pathways

Chang Xiaokun, Liu Yufei, Yang Xirui, Zhang Wanying

Population Research 2026, 50 (2): 36-51.

Abstract （2113）

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Against the backdrop of accelerated global population ageing, achieving “healthy ageing” has become a critical global policy objective. China faces severe challenges due to its large and rapidly growing older population, compounded by the distinctive national condition of “getting old before getting rich”—ageing at a relatively early stage of economic development. While existing research acknowledges these challenges, empirically grounded, comprehensive measurement frameworks tailored to the Chinese context remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by constructing a multidimensional index and conducting a systematic spatiotemporal analysis of China's healthy ageing levels from 2018 to 2023.

This research addresses three core questions: (1) How can a comprehensive measurement system for healthy ageing be constructed for China, considering China's unique socioeconomic conditions? (2) What are the temporal trends, structural characteristics, and regional disparities in China's healthy ageing levels? (3) Based on empirical findings, what targeted pathways can be proposed for optimization? To answer these questions, we developed a six-dimensional index encompassing physical health, mental health, social participation, living environment, economic security, and health behaviors and knowledge. The analysis integrates nationally representative microdata from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) with macro-level statistics from the China Statistical Yearbook. Entropy method is employed for objective weighting to synthesize a composite Healthy Ageing Index (HAI), and kernel density estimation is utilized to analyze distribution dynamics and regional evolution.

The key findings reveal a steady improvement in China's national HAI, rising from 0.1653 in 2018 to 0.2339 in 2023. However, progress is highly uneven across dimensions and regions. Significant gains were observed in the dimensions of physical health, living environment, and health behaviors and knowledge, which emerged as the primary drivers of overall improvement. In contrast, mental health, social participation, and economic security showed minimal improvement, constituting critical and persistent bottlenecks. Furthermore, healthy ageing among China's older population exhibits significant regional disparities and dimensional imbalances.

Based on these empirical findings, this study proposes five interconnected optimization pathways: (1) strengthening the economic security system to solidify the foundation for healthy ageing; (2) constructing community-based psychosocial support networks to address gaps in mental well-being and social inclusion; (3) promoting life-cycle health management to sustain gains in physical health and behavioral improvements; (4) leveraging smart technologies for inclusive, age-friendly environmental upgrades while bridging the digital divide; and (5) cultivating an interdisciplinary talent pool to support the sustainable operation of service systems.

The contributions of our study are threefold. Firstly, it advances the theoretical framework by integrating the World Health Organization's “functional ability” concept with China's specific contextual factors into a coherent, multi-dimensional measurement system. Secondly, it provides a robust longitudinal and spatial analysis of healthy ageing trends in China using recent nationwide data and objective weighting techniques, offering novel empirical evidence on evolving regional patterns and dimensional bottlenecks. Thirdly, in terms of policy relevance, the findings and proposed pathways offer a data-driven, localized roadmap for policymakers to design targeted interventions, contributing to the strategic goals of “Healthy China 2030” and an effective response to population ageing.

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Research on the Mechanism of Smart Devices Empowering Older Adults' Internet-Based Health Management: A Dual-Dimensional Analysis of Cognition and Behavior

Peng Jiao, Wei Yukun

Population Research 2026, 50 (2): 68-83.

Abstract （2106）

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Enhancing older adults' perceived convenience of internet-based health management and facilitating the shift from cognition to actual behavior are important pathways to promote the health of older adults and actively respond to population aging in the digital and intelligent era. However, little research has explored whether and how smart devices empower older adults in internet-based health management. This study develops an integrated cognition-behavior analytical framework to analyze the empowering effect of smart devices on internet-based health management among older adults and examines the mediating roles of internet usage ability and internet usage motivation in the relationship between smart devices and internet-based health management. Based on data drawn from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) conducted in 2018 and 2020, this study employs logistic regression analysis and structural equation modeling to test the research hypotheses proposed for the research questions, and further conducts a systematic analysis on the robustness of the results with Propensity Score Matching (PSM), the two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) method, the Heckman two-step procedure and the replacement of the core explanatory variable.

Results indicate that smart devices significantly improve older adults' perceived convenience of internet-based health management and increase their likelihood of engaging in such behaviors. This conclusion remains robust across a series of rigorous tests. Based on cognitive and behavioral dimensions, older adults are classified into four types: active participants, passive participants, potential participants, and bystanders, with the results confirming clear transition pathways among these types. Specifically, smart devices enhance older adults' perceived convenience of internet-based health management by improving their information search ability and internal health motivation, thereby facilitating the conversion of bystanders into potential participants. Furthermore, smart devices promote the transition from potential participants to active participants by boosting their sense of social adaptation. However, software usage ability does not show a significant mediating effect, suggesting that some older adults with perceived convenience still fail to act due to their insufficient internet operational skills. In addition, substantial heterogeneity is found in the effects of different smart devices on older adults' internet-based health management, and the same device exerts distinctly different effects on their cognition versus actual behavior. For instance, smart wristbands and smart watches tend to encourage older adults to become potential participants, whereas all-in-one smart devices and smart cameras are more likely to facilitate their transition into active participants. These findings highlight the need for tailored interventions that facilitate older adults' adoption of digital technologies in line with their types of internet-based health management. Both community-based digital skills training and intergenerational digital support within families may help enhance older adults' software usage ability.

This study contributes to the literature by advancing the analytical focus from behavior alone to an integrated cognition-behavior perspective. Therefore, this shift clarifies the heterogeneous empowerment pathways of smart devices for older adults' internet-based health management. The findings provide robust empirical evidence for optimizing the supply of internet-based health services for older adults and promoting the development of age-friendly digital health systems.

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The Impact of Digital Divide on Older Adults' Consumption

Sheng Yi'nan, Zhang Meng

Population Research 2025, 49 (5): 35-51.

Abstract （2106）

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Based on data from the 2023 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS), this study empirically examines the impact of the digital divide on older adults' consumption and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that a high-level digital divide significantly suppresses older adults' consumption. This negative effect is mediated by older adults' negative perceptions and attitudes toward aging. The moderating effects analysis suggests that social participation, family and peer support for older adults' Internet use can mitigate the suppressive effect of a high-level digital divide on older adults' consumption. The moderating effects vary depending on whether there are non-older adults in the household. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the suppressive effect of a high-level digital divide on consumption is more pronounced among the oldest-old, rural older adults, and those residing in economically underdeveloped regions. This study emphasizes the need to strengthen digital infrastructure, promote the age-friendly digital design, foster intergenerational digital literacy support within families, and strengthen social support and participation in community activities. Furthermore, a stratified and categorized digital inclusion support system should be established to meet the diverse consumption needs of different older adult populations.

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The Impact of Acculturation on Residence Intentions among Foreign High-skilled Professionals in China: A Case Study of Guangzhou and Shenzhen

Li Shuzhuo, Xue Lin, Bai Meng

Population Research 2026, 50 (2): 114-128.

Abstract （2099）

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Driven by technological and economic growth, China has attracted a substantial number of high-skilled professionals to work and settle in the country. However, persistent cross-cultural adaptation challenges continue to constrain the full deployment of their expertise and undermine their long-term retention. This points to a structural imbalance in China's talent attraction policy, which has historically prioritized recruitment and entry over integration and sustained support. Research on acculturation and residence intentions of foreign high-skilled professionals carries significant practical relevance.

Drawing on data from the 2023 Survey of Social Condition of Foreign Talents in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, this study employs a logit model to systematically identify the acculturation patterns of high-skilled foreign professionals in China and delineate the mechanisms by which these patterns influence residence intentions through life satisfaction, place dependence, and place identity.

The analysis revealed four primary acculturation strategies: assimilation-inclined integration, integration, moderate integration, and separation. These findings extend and empirically test the applicability of bidirectional acculturation theory to non-traditional immigration contexts. Most professionals adopt proactive strategies (assimilation-inclined integration, integration, moderate integration), all of which show positive associations with residence intentions in both the short and long term. By contrast, only a minority (16.07%) resort to separation—a finding that contrasts with earlier observations of short-term high-skilled migrants frequently remaining within an “expat bubble”. Second, these strategies influence residence intentions through distinct mediating mechanisms. Integration operates via life satisfaction, place dependence, and place identity; assimilation-inclined integration and moderate integration operate via life satisfaction and place dependence. Third, self-efficacy plays a significant protective role, both by indirectly influencing settlement intentions through moderating the effects of assimilation-oriented acculturation strategies on life satisfaction and place identity, and by showing a significant positive correlation with long-term settlement intentions. Fourth, proactive acculturation has a stronger positive effect on residence intentions of family-reunion migrants than on those of corporate expatriates, whereas moderate integration is more effective in boosting residence intentions of career-oriented migrants. The frequency of voluntary participation is a direct positive predictor of settlement intentions among separated individuals. However, high-frequency participation undermines the positive effect of integration-oriented and moderate integration strategies on short-term settlement intentions. Autonomous participation attenuates only the effect of integration-oriented strategies on short-term settlement intentions. In contrast, the influence pathways of acculturation strategies remain largely unaffected by variations in the frequency of community-based participation.

We propose an integrated three-pronged strategy to promote proactive cultural adaptation and strengthen long-term retention among foreign high-skilled professionals in China. This involves: (1) establishing a targeted identification and dynamic evaluation mechanism to deliver motivation-strategy aligned interventions; (2) defining a clear collaborative governance framework between the government and market actors across functional and psychological dimensions to clarify roles and enhance synergy; and (3) constructing a tiered social participation platform, guided by public-service initiatives and supported by community networks, to provide structured pathways for meaningful engagement. Collectively, these measures are designed to cultivate an enabling ecosystem that facilitates adaptive acculturation and systematically enhances foreign professionals' willingness to pursue sustained career development in China.

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Global Perspective on Ageing Research: International Progress and Comparative Insights for China

Du Peng, Ma Qifeng

Population Research 2026, 50 (2): 84-97.

Abstract （2017）

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Population ageing is a common challenge faced by countries worldwide in the 21st century. China is currently undergoing the largest-scale and fastest-ageing process in the world. This demographic transition poses severe challenges to both national governance capacity and academic research. However, domestic ageing research started relatively late compared to Western nations and still has considerable room for improvement in understanding the global developmental trajectory and research frontiers of the field. This paper aims to review the evolution, frontier topics, and innovation mechanisms of international ageing research, aiming to provide insights for domestic studies and contribute to the formation of a disciplinary discourse system that is rooted in local contexts yet oriented toward the world.

International ageing research has undergone four main developmental stages. From the early 20th century to the 1950s, the field emerged under the predominant influence of the medical paradigm. The 1960s to 1970s marked a critical phase of theoretical formation and disciplinary independence. During the 1980s and 1990s, a clear critical turn became evident. Since the 21st century, a global perspective and interdisciplinary integration have become distinctive features. This trajectory profoundly reveals the progression of international ageing research from medical dominance to social scientific independence, from theoretical formation to critical reflection, and from a limited focus to a global outlook.

Based on the Web of Science (WOS) and Journal Citation Reports (JCR) from Clarivate Analytics, this paper reviews literature from 38 SSCI-indexed Gerontology journals and identifies ten major hot topics in current international ageing research. These broadly cover ageing population studies, health issues in old age, elderly care services, family issues in ageing, digital life of older adults, silver economy research, age-friendly environments, social work with older adults, social governance of ageing, and other related areas. Building on this, the paper examines innovations in the key elements of international ageing research. Research paradigms are evolving toward greater integration and refinement. Theoretical construction increasingly emphasizes the agency of older adults and critical reflection. Research methods increasingly rely on the integration of data resources and advanced analytical technologies.

These international developments offer multiple insights for ageing research in China. First, it is necessary to avoid the simple transplantation of Western theories and instead construct a local theoretical system that reflects cultural subjectivity. Second, the international comparative perspective should be expanded, with emphasis on contextual adaptation when drawing on the experiences of other countries. Third, greater attention should be paid to the inheritance of traditional Chinese wisdom on ageing. Fourth, it is essential to strengthen the development of data infrastructure, promote methodological and technological innovation, and enhance the practical value of academic outcomes.

This paper provides directional reference and theoretical support for constructing an independent knowledge system of Gerontology in China. It clarifies the international coordinates and innovative dynamics of disciplinary development, underscores the urgency of localized theoretical innovation, and offers evidence-based insights for China to improve its social governance of ageing and contribute Eastern wisdom to global Gerontology amid population ageing.

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In Memory of My Beloved Mentor, Professor Lin Fude

Wang Qian

Population Research 2025, 49 (6): 79-81.

Abstract （1960）

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