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Future Trends and Mechanisms of the Surge of Deaths in China Zhang Zhen, Li Qiang Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 20-34.   Abstract （2664）      PDF （2148KB）（314）       Knowledge map    Save With the accelerating ageing process of the population, China is facing an unprecedented mortality peak dominated by the older population. Mathematical demography analysis reveals that the evolution of the mortality peak depends on three intertwined demographic factors: (1) historical fertility peaks and troughs play a dominant role in shaping the mortality population, (2) increased survival rates expand the elderly population base, thereby increasing the number of elderly deaths, and (3) period mortality rate declines contribute to reducing the mortality peak. As these three factors have varying effects on different birth cohorts, ages, and periods, age-specific deaths exhibit significant fluctuations. However, when summing up deaths across all ages, the fluctuations at different ages offset each other to some extent, resulting in a relatively smooth trend in the total number of deaths. Although the massive number of deaths among the elderly are a natural outcome of the demographic transition, China’s mortality peak is approaching rapidly and on an unprecedented scale, posing severe challenges to individuals, families, and society as a whole. The government and all sectors of society need to formulate proactive coping strategies as early as possible Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Status and Changes of the Rural Children Left Behind in China: 2010-2020 Lyu Lidan, Mei Ziying, Li Rui, Li Shu, Yan Fang, Wang Xu, Duan Chengrong Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 103-117.   Abstract （2635）      PDF （1278KB）（1309）       Knowledge map    Save The phenomenon and issues of rural children left behind (RCLB) in China are affecting the flow of human capital between urban and rural areas. This paper clarifies the definition and steps for identifying RCLB, and uses the micro-data of the 2010 and 2020 Population Censuses to analyze relevant characteristics and changing trends over the past ten years. The analysis includes the following aspects: population size of RCLB, their age and sex structure, regional distribution, living arrangements, and educational development. The findings show that the population size of RCLB remained large, and the likelihood of being left-behind was closely related to age and sex. An increasing proportion of RCLB were cared for by grandparents as more mothers migrated between 2010 and 2020. RCLB no longer had any advantage in education opportunity compared with the average level of rural children. Over-age attendance was more noticeable among RCLB than the average level of rural children. We should continue to pay attention to the issue of RCLB and address its root causes. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Internet Use and the Life of Older Adults Aged 50 and above in Digital Era:Findings from a National Survey Jin Yongai, Hu Wenbo, Feng Yang Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 40-55.   Abstract （1694）      PDF （1279KB）（598）       Knowledge map    Save The swift rise in China's ageing population coincides with the rapid advancement of informatization, presenting unparalleled opportunities and challenges in addressing China's ageing issues. From 2010 to 2022, the percentage of internet users within the 50-59 age group escalated from 11.1% to 73.5%, while in the 60 and above age group, it surged from 4.9% to 54.5%. The examination of how internet use impacts the lives of older adults using the latest empirical data has gained increasing significance. Key findings are as follows: It highlights a profound integration of the internet into the lives of older adults; there exists considerable diversity in internet usage patterns among older adults; it remains crucial to recognize the persistent digital divide among older adults, and elevating cybersecurity awareness among them is paramount to safeguard against potential online threats; furthermore, moderate internet use has shown to positively impact healthy ageing and contribute to the subjective well-being of older individuals. These findings underscore the urgent need to create a digital society that accommodates older adults. This necessitates concerted efforts from governments, enterprises, communities, families, and the older adults themselves. Collective participation and collaborative work are pivotal in cultivating an environment that supports and empowers this demographic within the digital landscape. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Situation, Influencing Factors, and Policy Responses to Singlehood, Childlessness, and Low Fertility in China: Findings from a Specialized Survey Yang Fan, Guo Pinrui, Liu Jianan Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 30-43.   Abstract （1209）      PDF （1236KB）（518）       Knowledge map    Save Changes in people's marital and fertility intentions and behaviors play a significant role in declining fertility rates. Based on data from a specialized survey, this paper investigates the intentions and determinants of marriage and fertility within distinct childbearing-age groups, concerning non-marriage or delayed marriage, childlessness or delayed childbearing, and low fertility, under the background of current fertility policies. It finds that the majority of individuals in these groups still wish to marry and have children. The main reasons for the divergence between their intentions and behaviors are the rising costs of marriage and childbearing, including economic and time costs. Furthermore, the impact of cultural and public opinion cannot be overlooked. Regarding the Three-child policy and supporting measures, over twenty percent of the married respondents consider them effective in boosting childbearing intentions. Reducing educational costs, providing child-rearing subsidies, and ensuring parental leave are the common policy demands. Therefore, it is crucial to reduce the costs of child-rearing for families through diversified economic support, establish a comprehensive lifecycle marital and childbearing support policy system, and convey positive marital and childbearing concepts through cultural development. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Can Internet Use Promote the Social Adaptation Level of Older Adults? An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Different Usages Du Peng, Luo Yesheng Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 3-20.   Abstract （763）      PDF （1325KB）（287）       Knowledge map    Save There are distinct internal differences in the use of internet among older adults, and different ways of using internet can also have different impacts on them. From a typological perspective, using data from the 2020 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS), this study analyzes the heterogeneous impact of different types of internet usage among Chinese older adults on their social adaptation level. It is found that using internet can significantly promote the social adaptation level of older adults, but the degree of promotion depends on the type of internet usage. The comprehensive type benefits the most from Internet use, while the social-news type benefits the least. However, the difference among the social-news type, social type, and social-entertainment type is not significant. Among the older adults who access internet, there is a “J-shaped” connection between the hierarchy of internet usage and the social adaptation level of older adults. In addition, older adults with higher level of education benefit more from using Internet. To strengthen the construction of a digitally inclusive ageing society, this study suggests that precise measures should be taken to cope with the differences in internet usage among older adults, strengthen cyberspace governance, and improve the digital and information literacy of older adults. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Current Levels and Changing Patterns of Labor Force Participation among Older Adults at Age 60-69 in China Song Yueping, Zhang Guangying, Peng Keyu Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 75-89.   Abstract （711）      PDF （1309KB）（227）       Knowledge map    Save The population ageing in China has become increasingly profound, and Actively Responding to Population Ageing has become a national strategy. While the older adults at age 60-69 (i.e., the young old adults) have great human resources to be utilized, their labor force participation levels have not been thoroughly examined. Based on data from the censuses and 1% population sampling surveys from 2000 to 2020, this study describes the demographic characteristics and labor force participation features of the young old adults in China from the perspectives of urban-rural areas, regions, gender, education and health status. The study reveals that the size of the young old adults in China is rapidly growing, with continuous improvements in education and health human capital. However, the efficiency of utilizing the human resources of the young old adults remains low. The young old workers in rural and remote areas primarily engage in agricultural activities, with a relatively single employment structure. Although the young old adults in urban and developed areas have more job opportunities, they mostly engage in low-end labor with low incomes and poor social insurance. The young old women have great potential in terms of human resources, but they face more employment obstacles at institutional, socio-cultural and personal cognitive levels. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends and Characteristics of Male Marriage Squeeze in China Guo Zhen, Yang Liuqing, Liang Haili, Li Shuzhuo Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 91-106.   Abstract （677）      PDF （1325KB）（505）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990, this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades. Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested. The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020, and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036. Unlike in the past, when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions, the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent. The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities, with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married. The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated, with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors. The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020. Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources, increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance, and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.     Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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China’s Longevity Levels from the Perspective of Centenarians Du Peng, Wu Cilin Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 3-19.   Abstract （652）      PDF （1388KB）（266）       Knowledge map    Save When discussing longevity levels, the centenarian population representing an extremely significant group is often overlooked. Based on data from the Seventh National Population Census, China surpassed the United States and had the largest number of centenarians in the world in 2020. China’s proportion of centenarians was also higher than the global average, becoming a country with a huge longevity population. However, there remains a gap compared to developed regions, and further progress is needed to become a leading country in longevity. In China, the eastern regions have the highest number and proportion of centenarians. Urban centenarians outnumber their rural counterparts, and about 70.4% of centenarians are female. The number and proportion of centenarians have increased across different ethnic groups, though disparities exist. To transition from a country with a huge longevity population to a leading country in longevity, China should rely on high-quality development led by the Chinese Path to Modernization. The government should implement comprehensive policies integrating political guidance, economic development, social security, cultural and spiritual life, and environmental protection to promote the development of longevity. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Shift of Marriage and Procreation Culture in China and Its Demographic Consequences Shi Renbing, Wang Jun Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 78-90.   Abstract （600）      PDF （1237KB）（700）       Knowledge map    Save Previous studies on the shifts of Chinese marriage and procreation culture did not reveal the essential characteristics of various cultures or the deep-seated socio-economic background. Based on the examination of mainstream societal values, this study reveals that in traditional Chinese society, people's marriage and procreation behaviors were deeply influenced by Familism. This dominant familism marriage and procreation culture adores “perpetuating the family line”, “early and abundant childbirth” and “more children bring more blessings”. With the establishment and development of socialist market economy, Materialistic values have spread in contemporary China. Materialism is gradually replacing Familism, becoming the new dominant force in marriage and procreation culture. Materialism culture of marriage and procreation, at its core, is a culture of low fertility. It exerts influence on individuals' attitudes and behaviors related to marriage and procreation through a series of intermediate factors, resulting in attitudes of “unwillingness to have children” “daring not to give births” and “inability to have children”. To achieve a moderate fertility level, it is necessary to weaken the influence of Materialism and shape a healthy society that is characterized by individual autonomy and a sense of community. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Subjective Well-being on Fertility Intention: An Empirical Study Based on CGSS Data Zhu Li, Huang Bolin, Liu Chengjun, Peng Gang Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 118-132.   Abstract （564）      PDF （1245KB）（192）       Knowledge map    Save China has entered an era of low fertility, showing low fertility intention and declining number of births. Using the 2012-2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data, this study constructs an index system to measure subjective well-being based on the “sense of gain, happiness and security” (i.e., three senses of people's livelihood) proposed in the 19th National Congress report of the CPC. It measures people's fertility intention from two aspects: the intention to have children and the ideal number of children. This study explores the influence of subjective well-being on fertility intention and reveals a significant positive impact. Specifically, the sense of happiness mainly affects the ideal number of children, while the sense of security mainly affects the intention to have children. The sense of gain significantly influences both aspects and exhibits the largest effect. Moreover, with the development of China's economy and the gradual liberalization of the fertility policy, the positive influence of the subjective well-being on the intention to have children is gradually weakening, while its influence on the ideal number of children is increasing. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Structure Reconstruction and Human Capital Accounting in China from 2000 to 2020 Wang Jinying, Zhang Guoting Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 3-21.   Abstract （544）      PDF （1286KB）（169）       Knowledge map    Save Continuous and complete population data by age and education level are the basis for studying the dynamic relationship between population and economic and social development in a country or region. However, in non-census years, such data cannot be directly obtained or its quality cannot be guaranteed. To this end, the national population census data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 are used to reconstruct the population data by age and education level for non-census years from 2000 to 2020 using the population discrete development equation forward and backward bidirectional feedback fitting method. Based on this, an improved accounting model is used to calculate the human capital stock from 2000 to 2020.The research results show that the difference between the reconstructed non-census year total population data and the adjusted data from the National Bureau of Statistics is very small. The reconstructed age-specific population data corrected the bias in the age composition data published in previous statistical yearbooks. The calculated data on human capital stock shows that it increased from 15.856 billion person-years in 2000 to 26.479 billion person-years in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 2.60%. Affected by the ageing population and the decrease in the working age population, the growth rate of human capital stock shows a decreasing trend between the first and the second ten-year periods. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Fertility Support Policy on Fertility Desire of the Reproductive-Age Population: An Empirical Analysis Based on 2021 Chengdu Specialized Survey Wang Zhuo, Li Menghe Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 3-18.   Abstract （505）      PDF （1281KB）（18）       Knowledge map    Save To explore the impact of fertility support policy on fertility desire and its mechanisms, this study divides fertility support policy into pregnancy support policy and parenting support policy based on fertility behavior, and conductes empirical analysis using the special survey data of “Effectiveness evaluation of fertility policy and supporting measures” in Chengdu in 2021. The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between pregnancy support policy and fertility desire, while the relationship between parenting support policy and fertility intention is not supported by empirical evidence. In further exploring of the differential mechanisms of fertility cost perceptions and fertility preferences in the impact of pregnancy support policies on fertility desire, the childbearing age groups can be classified into four categories: “daring but not willing to give birth”, “not willing and not daring to give birth”, “daring and willing to give birth” and “willing but not daring to give birth”. Different policy directions are applicable to different types of childbearing age groups under different mechanisms. Therefore, constructing a long-term fertility support policy system requires the scientific identification of target groups and precise policies to improve policy effectiveness and to effectively enhance fertility levels. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pronatalist Policies: Central Government Responsibilities and Top-Level Design Du Yang, Cheng Jie, Qu Yue Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 3-16.   Abstract （503）      PDF （1251KB）（119）       Knowledge map    Save Due to the positive correlation between population size and technological innovation, there exists a positive externality in fertility, which is intertemporal and inseparable across regions. Since the benefits of high fertility are reaped at the national level, the central government has the principal responsibilities to implement pronatalist policies. Policy design deviating this principle would distort the behaviors of local governments. In this context, a well-designed pronatalist policy should clearly define the responsibilities between the central and the local governments to achieve a mechanism with incentive compatibility at both the micro and macro level. The core of pronatalist policy is to resolve the conflicts between childbirth and female labor market participation and to prioritize those that both facilitate childbearing and improve women's competitiveness in the labor market. Personal income tax deduction is one of the policies that meets the above criteria. The top-level design should complete the policy framework to effectively include women of childbearing age and implement targeted policies based on the characteristics of different groups. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Population Inertia and Momentum: Concept, Causes, and Empirical Evidence Zhou Changhong, Mao Zhuoyan Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 17-29.   Abstract （477）      PDF （1248KB）（136）       Knowledge map    Save Population momentum and population inertia are connected concepts. Both are used to describe the phenomenon that the population will continue growing or decreasing before reaching a stationary population when the fertility reaches the replacement level. However, there are also differences. The population momentum is virtual and can be estimated for any year, while population inertia is a specific demographic phenomenon that only occurs after the population's fertility reaches the replacement level. The Lag effect of fertility on generation replacement is the fundamental cause of population inertia and determines that the standard period of inertial period is equal to the difference between the population's life expectancy at birth and the mean age of childbearing. The length of an actual inertial period of the population is affected by the fertility level during the inertial period and the size of migration. The amplitude of population growth or decrease during the inertial period is affected by the fertility rates in the decades before entering the inertial period. Empirical analysis shows that China, Japan, South Korea and Germany have already undergone the complete processes of population inertial growth which have lasted for 30-50 years. The UK, France, Thailand and Brazil are in the process of population inertial growth. So far, no country in the world has entered the process of negative inertial growth of population. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Population Flow Networks in China: Based on Four Types of Population Flows Zhang Yaojun, Chen Yun, Wu Xiwei, Qi Jinghan Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 118-132.   Abstract （461）      PDF （6859KB）（180）       Knowledge map    Save Studying population flow patterns is essential for comprehending regional population changes and economic and social development trends. Using data from the sixth and seventh national population censuses to classify China's interprovincial population flows into four types: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural, this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics of population flow networks and their influencing factors using a spatial autoregressive negative binomial model. The results show that: The proportion of rural-urban and urban-urban population flows has increased, while the proportion of rural-rural population flows has decreased. Rural-rural and rural-urban population flows tend to move from west to east, while urban-urban and urban-rural population flows are diverse and bi-directional. China's population center is shifting from a single city (province) to an urban agglomeration. While economic factors play a significant role in rural-urban and rural-rural population flows, the factors influencing urban-rural and urban-urban population flows are complex and diverse. The degree of influence of economic factors on these flows is weakening. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Artificial Intelligence, Labor Demand, and Human Capital Investments Liu Jianan, Xing Chunbing Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 68-84.   Abstract （450）      PDF （1296KB）（149）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the data from the population census and sampling survey, this paper constructs instrumental variable regression models to study how the use of industrial robots affects labor demand for workers with different skills, and how the demand shocks affect individuals' human capital investments in local labor markets under the development of artificial intelligence. The study finds that the use of industrial robots has substitution effects for low-skilled non-agricultural workers, while it creates job opportunities for high-skilled non-agricultural workers. The induced demand shocks further affect individuals' human capital investments. Specifically, the substitution of employment of the low-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering regular college, and the boost of employment of the high-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering both high school and regular college. However, both effects discourage human capital investments in vocational education. The results indicate that the popularization of artificial intelligence could promote human capital investments, improving population quality and mitigating the negative impact of population decline. Meanwhile, future policies should improve and support the integration of vocational education with the regular educational system to adapt to the labor demand changes brought by the artificial intelligence development. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Mediating Role of Fertility Motivation in the Impact of Internet Use on Fertility Intentions Chen Weimin, Wang Youru Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 44-59.   Abstract （444）      PDF （1300KB）（174）       Knowledge map    Save Analysis of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data reveals that fertility motivations mediate the impact of internet use on fertility intentions. This mediating role operates in two directions. First, internet use diminishes family-oriented fertility motivations, including family legacy and economic utility motivation, suppressing fertility intentions. Second, internet use enhances individual-oriented fertility motivations, particularly emotion-driven motivation, promoting fertility intentions. Overall, the inhibiting role played by fertility motivation is more pronounced in the influence of internet use on fertility intentions. The mediating effect accounts for 11.251% of the total effect. Further, the impact of internet use on fertility motivation differs across cohorts, genders, urban-rural residences, and education levels. The impacts of different online behaviors on fertility motivation are also different. Exploring the mediating role of fertility motivation contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which internet use influences fertility intentions, offering novel insights for addressing low fertility rates in the internet era. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Substitute or Supplement? The Impact of Home-based Care Services on Intergenerational Support of Chinese Older People Sun Juanjuan, Tian Jiayin, Chen Yuxin Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 35-50.   Abstract （438）      PDF （1240KB）（344）       Knowledge map    Save Both of the home-based care services for older people and the function of old-age support by family have been integrated into the national strategy of actively responding to ageing. However, more in-depth studies are necessary to explore the effects of home-based care services on family support for the older people. Based on a counterfactual framework and using the 2018 and 2020 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) data, this paper employs a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods to measure the influence of home-based care services on family intergenerational support. The results show that home-based care services for the older people have a significant negative impact on their family intergenerational support, to a certain extent, replacing the instrumental support provided by adult children. Moreover, this substitution effect is more significant among the relatively vulnerable elderly group. The empirical results also suggest that the effect of home-based care services on family intergenerational support does not significantly reduce the intergenerational relationships of older adults, and that the overall functioning of family care is maintained. Therefore, in order to promote the mutual integration and positive interaction between social care services and family care, the support for the family care provided by home-based care services should be strengthened. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Working Life Expectancy of the Older Population in Rural China and Its Regional Differences from 2010 to 2020 Zhang Wenjuan, Chen Lu Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 21-34.   Abstract （434）      PDF （1231KB）（388）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the data from the population censuses and the 1% population sampling survey, this paper analyzes the trend of working life expectancy and its regional differences of the rural older population in China from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate that the proportion of working people among the rural older population has been declining since 2010, and their working life expectancy has decreased steadily while their non-working life expectancy has increased. The study also reveals significant gender and regional disparities in the working life expectancy of the rural older population: older males, and those residing in agriculturally developed and population-outflowing areas have a longer working life expectancy and less leisure time in their later lives. There are five typical patterns of working life expectancy extension for the rural older population, which are closely linked to the living standards, willingness to work, labor capacity, and working environment of the older population in the region. The research serves as an inspiration for authorities and society to empower rural older workers while providing them with a well-designed and powerful economic safety net. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Are Older People “Addicted” to the Internet? Concepts, Phenomena, and Impacts Zhai Zhenwu, Zhang Yiyang, Peng Lanling Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 56-67.   Abstract （412）      PDF （1292KB）（113）       Knowledge map    Save With the growth of internet usage among older people, concerns about “older adults' internet addiction” frequently appear in media and research. To achieve a comprehensive understanding of “older adults' internet addiction”, this study discusses the concepts, phenomena, and impacts of “internet addiction”. “Internet addiction” is characterized by three features, including “excessive use”, “damage to primary activities and social functions”, and “persistent and prolonged states”. Existing discussions and studies mainly focus on the single dimension of “excessive use”, exaggerating the issue of “older adults' internet addiction”. Data from the “Survey on the Digital Divide and Integration of the Older Adults in China” show a low proportion of older people who are addicted to the Internet. Currently, the main challenge in the internet lives of older adults is how to deal with the “digital divide”. To enhance the internet accessibility and proficiency of older adults, we suggest upgrading the intelligent device hardware, software, and functions for their convenience and providing guidance on smartphone use for older people. This will help older adults benefit from the development dividends in the internet era. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Population Quality to Complement Population Quantity: Intrinsic Mechanism and Realization Path Hu Yaoling, Xu Yangyang Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 22-39.   Abstract （398）      PDF （1344KB）（141）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from censuses and statistical yearbooks between 2000 and 2020 and World Population Prospects 2022, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation model for labor force quality to estimate the nominal labor supply and effective labor supply equivalent in China and analyze the feasibility and realization path of population quality complementing population quantity. The results show that China's nominal labor supply will drop from 744.7 million in 2020 to 565.9 million in 2050. Although the effective labor supply equivalent is higher than the nominal labor supply, it is constrained by the decline of the labor force. The effective labor supply equivalent will peak at 752.9 million in 2028 and then drop to 643.1 million in 2050. By improving the relative labor quality through educational reform and health interventions, the year of the peak can be postponed until 2032, and it can remain over 714 million before 2050, achieving the population quality complementing quantity in the short term. In the long term, fully leveraging the compensatory effect of population quality cannot be achieved without a certain population size. It is necessary to strengthen the policy system further to support fertility. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Reciprocal Relationship between Physical Disability and Depressive Symptoms among Chinese Older Adults: An Empirical Study Based on CHARLS Data Ruan Yunchen, Lu Jiehua Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 104-117.   Abstract （366）      PDF （1256KB）（120）       Knowledge map    Save Paying attention to the physical and mental health of Chinese older adults is of great significance for promoting the implementation of the National Strategy for Actively Responding to Population Ageing and the Healthy China strategy. By applying the fixed effect model and cross-lagged panel model to the data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2013, 2015, and 2018, this paper analyzes the causal relationship between physical disability and depressive symptoms among Chinese older adults. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between physical disability and depressive symptoms during the same period. After controlling for unobserved confounding factors, the deterioration and improvement of physical disability will significantly affect changes in depressive symptoms. Using the cross-lagged panel model, we found a bidirectional causal relationship between physical disability and depressive symptoms among older adults. By utilizing three physical disability measurement indices, namely the Nagi Index, IADL Index, and ADL Index, it was discovered that the bidirectional causal relationship between them remains significant. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the prevention and rehabilitation of physical disability among Chinese older adults and to construct a comprehensive health service system for older adults that encompasses various aspects, including physical and mental health. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Internet Use on the Health Status of Empty-Nest Older Adults: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Li Jingbo, Li Yi Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 60-74.   Abstract （362）      PDF （1260KB）（109）       Knowledge map    Save With the development of the ageing process and the advancement of new-type urbanization, the size of empty-nest older adults gradually increases. The expansion of the Internet has enabled more older adults to access the Internet. Based on the data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) from 2010 to 2018, this study estimates the age-period-cohort effects and the impacts of Internet use on the health status of empty-nest older adults. The results show that there are period and cohort effects, but not age effects, on the changes in the mental health of empty-nest older adults. However, there are age and period effects, but not cohort effects, on the changes in physical health. Internet use has a significant positive impact on the physical and mental health of empty-nest older adults, mainly through social and learning pathways. The impact of Internet use on the health of empty-nest older adults is greater for those aged 75 and above, as well as for rural empty-nest older adults. Compared to non-empty-nest older adults, there is a greater impact of Internet use on the health of empty-nest older adults. We propose promoting Internet use among the empty-nest older adults and building an age-friendly digital society. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Chain Urbanization: Living Arrangements of Rural-urban Migrant Families in China Wu Kaize, Wang Wenxiu, Dong Huiling, Cui Can Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 99-114.   Abstract （338）      PDF （1365KB）（16）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS2016), this study examines the spatial distribution patterns of core family members and housing location choices of rural-urban migrant families. Migrant families have formed diversified living arrangements such as family reunification with homeownership in the destination city, family reunification without homeownership in the destination city, urban-rural split and urban-town split living arrangements. Those with higher human capital, richer family resources and an urge for a marital home are more likely to purchase housing in either the destination city or the hukou registered hometown town or city. Migrant families in super megacities and those with a higher level of economic development in their hukou registered place are more likely to seek housing opportunities in their hukou registered hometown town or city. Under the constraints of reality, migrant families optimize collective familial benefits by allocating resources, such as family members and housing, across diverse spatial domains. This strategy facilitates the urbanization of migrants into cities while also offering them the option to return to their rural hometowns. This implies a multi-stage and step-wise chain urbanization process, which requires a family relay to achieve family reunification and citizenization. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatial Effects and Heterogeneous Impacts of Population Ageing on Technological Innovation: Evidence Based on the Panel Data of Prefecture-level Cities in China Shen Ke, Sun Huilin Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 90-103.   Abstract （324）      PDF （1829KB）（81）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the panel data of China's prefecture-level cities in 2000, 2010, and 2020, this paper examines the spatial effects of population ageing on technological innovation and explores the heterogeneous impacts of ageing on technological innovation at different stages of social and economic development. The analytical results of the spatial Durbin model exhibit a robust inverted U-shaped relationship between population ageing and local technological innovation, as well as a U-shaped relationship between population ageing and neighbors' innovation. Furthermore, the threshold regression models indicate that, at the stage of low urbanization rate and insufficient supply of health services, population ageing imposes a significantly negative impact on technological innovation. With higher urbanization and a more adequate supply of health services, population ageing would stimulate innovation. Therefore, against the backdrop of the irreversible ageing process, promoting the urbanization process and improving the health care system will effectively attenuate the discouraging effects of ageing on innovation. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Extended Study of the Theory of Intergenerational Wealth Flows Chen Youhua, Yang Huikang Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 35-51.   Abstract （320）      PDF （1315KB）（103）       Knowledge map    Save John Caldwell developed the theory of intergenerational wealth flows at the micro-family level, which suggests that changes in family economic relations, particularly changes in the direction of intergenerational wealth flows within families, have led to fertility transition. It is undoubtedly original, but there are problems with its application and explanation. Based on the empirical facts described by the theory, an attempt is made to operationalize its concepts and core propositions, and to illustrate them empirically with the indicators and data provided by the National Transfer Accounts (NTA). It is found that introducing the direction of intergenerational wealth flows at the public level leads to more combinations of the direction of intergenerational wealth flows at different levels. Along with population ageing, changes in the direction of public-level intergenerational wealth flows can lead to a bottom-up shift in the direction of the aggregated flow. The shift is influenced by the demographic factors and the average age-specific transfers. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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How Does Population Ageing Affect the Application of Industrial Robots? Liu Bin, Wang Yu Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 85-102.   Abstract （300）      PDF （1314KB）（110）       Knowledge map    Save Population ageing, as a common phenomenon in developed countries, has now become a challenge for many developing countries in the “post-demographic dividend era”. Although population ageing causes supply-side shocks such as labor shortages, its impact also includes positive aspects. By using UN population data and industrial robot data, this study examines how population ageing affects the application of industrial robots. The results indicate a significant increase in the utilization of industrial robot due to population ageing. This effect is realized through three channels: the labor cost anti-driving effect, the human-machine conflict weakening effect, and the human capital accumulation effect. Furthermore, the results of heterogeneity analysis show that the driving force is more pronounced in countries (regions) with higher strategic readiness, technical readiness, and talent readiness in the field of intelligent manufacturing. Therefore, it is crucial to strengthen strategic deployment, technological research, and talent training in the field of intelligent manufacturing to unblock the channels for releasing the positive impact of population ageing. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Limitations and Future Prospects of Formal Demography in Contemporary China Wang Xuehui, Peng Xizhe Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 65-77.   Abstract （292）      PDF （1216KB）（194）       Knowledge map    Save With the socioeconomic development and transformation, China's demographic changes have showed various unique cultural characteristics and strong contemporary features. Many concepts, indicators and theories in formal demography can hardly be used to accurately analyze and interpret China's population development. The main problems lie in the inadequate temporal relevance of some demographic analytical indicators and their lack of effective localization. These indicators include those in the fields of population ageing, population migration, and family studies. The Chinese path of modernization and rapid demographic transition has provided rich empirical scenarios for the innovative developments in demography. The future development of Chinese demography should be based on the inheritance of the formal demography achievement and the incorporation of the new features in the new era. Meanwhile, it should also follow the principles of topicality, localization, expansion and internationalization to innovate or reconstruct the formal demographic index system and theoretical frameworks, continuously promote the establishment of an autonomous knowledge system in Chinese demography and contribute Chinese wisdom to the development of demography worldwide. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Period and Cohort Analysis of Inter-provincial Lifetime Migration in China Zhou Hao, Lei Linxuan Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 107-125.   Abstract （283）      PDF （2627KB）（225）       Knowledge map    Save Birthplace information is crucial for migration studies, enabling identification of lifetime migrants. Using data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 censuses, this research depicts inter-provincial lifetime migration in China, outlines national- and provincial-level migration trends, directions, and age patterns. The results suggest that lifetime migration reflects historical and contemporary migration, while the historical marks gradually fade. Its spatial distribution shows the characteristics of diffusion for the places of origin and diffusion-and-concentration for the destinations, while China's population remains relatively static. Cohort analysis highlights that lifetime migration has a cumulative effect over time and is closely associated with life events. The study concludes that birthplace information has a unique research perspective distinct from others, and calls for further research on the conditions and causal mechanisms of bidirectional migration flows. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Population Ageing on the Growth of Health Expenditure: An Analysis Based on the Multidimensional Factor Decomposition Method Xu Duo, Wang Xiangzhen, Fu Hongqiao Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 69-83.   Abstract （282）      PDF （1288KB）（14）       Knowledge map    Save As the population ageing process accelerates, the sustainability of China's health system faces increasingly significant challenges. Therefore, exploring the impact of population ageing on health expenditure is of great importance. Based on data from hospital admission records in Beijing and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, the Das Gupta decomposition method is adopted to analyze the contribution of population ageing to the growth of health expenditure. The analysis of hospital admission records from 2016 to 2019 reveals that the change in the age structure contributed 22.44% to the growth of hospitalization expenses. CFPS estimates show similar national results. The impact of population ageing on health expenditure is more pronounced among the elderly, with age structure changes accounting for 24.24%, 37.47%, and 31.51% of the variations of hospitalization expense for patients aged 50-64, 65-79, and 80 years old and above, respectively. Improving healthcare financing, promoting healthy ageing, and enhancing system efficiency are recommended. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Policy Effects of China’s Pilot Reforms in Home- and Community-based Eldercare Services Wang Yongmei, Zhang Shuo, Gong Xiaoyan Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 81-97.   Abstract （280）      PDF （1290KB）（124）       Knowledge map    Save This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the policy effects of China’s pilot reforms in home- and community-based eldercare services using panel data from the China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey (CLASS) for 2014 and 2020 and a difference-in-differences (DID) model. An “individual-family” dual-effects model is built for this purpose. The aforementioned analysis reveals the following four results. First, the “mental health effects” of the pilot reforms were validated by the data from the pilot policies, yet primarily evident in female older people and urban elderly. Second, the pilot reforms showed quite high family spillover effects and notably inspired filial piety and relevant behaviors among children towards their older parents, which played an important role in promoting family development and the reconstruction of filial norms in the new era. Third, the pilot reforms expanded the social networks of older people, thus improving their mental health. Finally, although the core achievement of the pilot reforms lay in daily care services, they provided a path for the integrated development of medical care and health care with their extensive health assessments. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights for advancing the high-quality development of China’s home- and community-based service systems. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Influence of Adverse Experiences on the Health of Chinese Older Adults: Mechanism Analysis of Adverse Childhood Experiences and Moderating Analysis of Current Experiences Zhao Menghan, Huang Yuanfeng Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 114-128.   Abstract （257）      PDF （1251KB）（80）       Knowledge map    Save China has recently implemented strategies to actively address population ageing and healthy China. Understanding the influence of adverse experiences on older adults’ health helps improve the lifelong health service policy. Using data from the China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey (CLASS) conducted in 2018 and 2020, this study analyzes the impact of adverse childhood experiences on older adults’ health and the mediating effect of individuals’ years of education, health behaviors, and budget constraints. Results show that adverse childhood experiences negatively affect older adults’ health indirectly through education or budget constraints. Further analysis shows that positive current experiences benefit older adults’ self-rated health and activities of daily living, while adverse current experiences have negative impacts on multiple dimensions of health. Adverse childhood experiences moderate the impact of adverse current experiences. In contrast to those without adverse childhood experiences, adverse current experiences have smaller negative effects on the self-rated health and chronic diseases of those who have experienced adverse childhood experiences. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evaluation of the Rationality of Population Distribution of Urban Agglomerations in China: Based on the Analysis of Economic Benefits of Urban Agglomerations Tong Yufen, Han Jiabin, Yang Yanfei Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 52-64.   Abstract （245）      PDF （1243KB）（80）       Knowledge map    Save The rationality of the population distribution of urban agglomerations is related to the high-quality development of urban agglomerations. Aiming at maximizing the economic benefits of urban agglomerations, this paper deduces the formula for the Structure Rationality Index (E-Zipf) of population distribution. It uses the panel data of 19 major urban agglomerations in China from 2010 to 2020 and adopts the systematic GMM method to calculate E-Zipf. The results show that the E-Zipf index of urban agglomerations in China is 1.33, which is higher than 1. Taking 1.33 as the standard, compared to the traditional standard of 1, the population distribution of 6 urban agglomerations is under-agglomeration rather than over-agglomeration. The results of rational classification show that the population distribution of 6 urban agglomerations, 5 urban agglomerations, and 8 urban agglomerations is reasonable, over-agglomerated, and under-agglomerated, respectively. Over-agglomerated urban areas need to disperse the population of the central city and appropriately develop the peripheral cities, while under-agglomerated areas need to continue to concentrate population in their core cities. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Living Arrangements of the Contemporary Older People in China: An Analysis Based on Three Perspectives Wang Yuesheng Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 33-50.   Abstract （242）      PDF （1290KB）（12）       Knowledge map    Save This paper uses the short-form, long-form, and long-form 1% sampling data from the seventh national population census to analyze the living style of the elderly aged 65 and above. According to the data in the short form, among households with two elderly people, the percentage of elderly couples living alone is more than 55%, while among households with one elderly person, more than 36% of the elderly live alone. The data in the long form show that the vast majority of the elderly live at home, and less than 1% live in institutions. According to the long-form 1% sampling data, the total proportion of elderly couples living alone and singles living alone exceeds 50%. China's contemporary elderly people has entered an era dominated by couples living alone and single living alone. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Ethnic Identity of Children from Interethnic Marriage Families and Its Impact on Ethnic Population Changes Wang Li, Zhou Siyao Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 65-80.   Abstract （234）      PDF （3728KB）（65）       Knowledge map    Save This article presents a matrix to analyze the ethnic identity of children from interethnic marriage families. Based on the population balance equation, this study uses individual level data from the seventh national population census to estimate the net effects of ethnic identity on the population change between 2010 and 2020 and examine the preferences among different ethnic groups. An increase of approximately 8.57 million children were from interethnic marriage families over the decade, with nearly 40% of the ethnic minority increase experiencing ethnic identity choices. The size of net population increase due to ethnic identity choices of the ethnic minority was about 1.95 million, accounting for about one-tenth of the increase in the ethnic minority population. For children from Han-minority intermarriage families, about 79.33% had ethnic minority identity. The population changes among different minority groups were mainly driven by the sizes and preferences of children from Han-minority intermarriage families. There were variations in interethnic preference among different interethnic marriage circles. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trajectory of Mental Health among the Rural Older People: Based on the Longitudinal Survey in Rural Areas of Anhui Gao Li, Li Shuzhuo Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 51-64.   Abstract （231）      PDF （1348KB）（195）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the stress process theory and life course theory, this paper studies the trajectory of mental health of the rural elderly by using the longitudinal data obtained from the survey “Well-being of Elderly in Anhui Province” from 2001 to 2018. The results show that age trajectory of mental health of the older people in rural areas follows a curvilinear pattern. With the increase of age, the life satisfaction of the older people increases at first and then decreases, while the depression increases. The cohort trajectory of life satisfaction follows an inverted U-shaped pattern,and the depression follows a U-shaped pattern. The cohort groups born earlier and later have the lower life satisfaction and the higher depression level, while the middle cohort groups born in the first half of 1930s have the highest level of life satisfaction and the lowest level of depression. Marriage and work stage have some influence on the mental health of the rural older people.The rural older people who are women, or with lower income or more negative life events have poorer mental health. The rural older people with better self-rated health, higher financial support or more emotional connection have better mental health. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Older Chinese Women’s Disability Trajectories and Influencing Factors: Urban-rural and Cohort Differences Hu Hongwei, Guo Hongwang, Liu Yujia Population Research    2024, 48 (3): 98-113.   Abstract （225）      PDF （1356KB）（80）       Knowledge map    Save Older women are at a high risk of disability. Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) from 1998 to 2018, this study identifies the trajectories of activities of daily living and cognition of older women in China through a group-based trajectory model and its extended model. It also compares the disparities in disability trajectories and their influencing factors between urban and rural areas and across cohorts. The results show three categories for the activities of daily living trajectories of older Chinese women: stable throughout life, risky in later life, and high-risky throughout life. There are two cognitive trajectories: low-starting risk and high-starting risk. The joint identification results show that the probability of experiencing both the activity of daily living impairment and cognitive impairment is as high as 0.109 for older women. Social capital, social security, childhood adverse experiences, and health behaviors affect older women’s disability trajectories. The disability care policies in China should consider demographic health disparities and prioritize lifelong health protection. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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From being “Supplementary” to being “Irreplaceable”: The Impact of Digital Literacy on the Reemployment Transition of the Retired People Chen Nanxu, Li Yuxuan, Wu Jiyu Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 51-68.   Abstract （224）      PDF （1322KB）（14）       Knowledge map    Save In the era of rapid expansion of the digital economy and the gradual erosion of demographic dividends, enhancing digital literacy provides a new opportunity for the retired population to re-realize their self-worth and harness their comparative advantages. Based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, this paper empirically investigates the influence of digital literacy on retirees' re-employment transitions by employing binary Logit and Probit models. The results show that the improvement of digital literacy notably fosters retirees' transition into reemployment, and this promoting effect is stronger among those with greater learning investments. The primary mechanisms underlying this enhancement lie in social integration and social capital augmentation, while the effectiveness of information acquisition depends on retirees' ability to discern information. Notably, the positive impact of improved digital literacy on reemployment is more pronounced among older adults with higher educational attainment and in regions with lower levels of digital economic development. It is recommended that the delayed retirement ages be formulated differentially to facilitate the construction of a digitally inclusive and age-friendly society. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Evolution of International Migration in the United States from 1990 to 2020 Ding Zhihong, Wang Tianzheng Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 115-132.   Abstract （192）      PDF （1376KB）（19）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the “Yearbook of Immigration Statistics” published by the United States Department of Homeland Security and the Global Migration Stock Database released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, this paper systematically analyzes the scale, structure, origins, and destinations of international migration to and from the United States from 1990 to 2020. The study finds that the scale of international immigration to the United States is significant, having gone through four phases over the past 30 years: decline, rebound, fluctuation, and decline again. The immigrant population mainly consists of people of working age, with a stable gender ratio. North America (excluding the United States) and Asia are the primary sources of immigrants to the United States. Additionally, the top ten countries and regions of origin for immigrants have remained relatively stable. On the other hand, international emigration from the United States has experienced three phases over the past 30 years: increase, decrease, and rebound. The gender differences in the emigrant population are generally small but vary significantly across different regions. Europe and North America remain the primary destinations for American emigrants, but an increasing number of Americans are emigrating to Asia. The patterns and governance of international migration in the United States have multiple implications for China. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Social Activities on the Consumption of the Young Old Sheng Yinan, Shang Jiajia Population Research    2024, 48 (4): 84-98.   Abstract （158）      PDF （1268KB）（13）       Knowledge map    Save With the cohort replacement and rapid growth of older population, the young older adults have become the main force driving older adults' consumption, gaining growing importance in overall residential consumption. Based on data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this study empirically examines the impact of social activities on the consumption of the young older adults. Results show that the diversity of social activities and the frequency of social participation significantly increase consumption levels, and contribute to the upgrading of consumption patterns. The participation in social activities of the young older adults weakens the negative effect of early family economic disadvantages on consumption levels. Furthermore, the effects of social activities are more pronounced in increasing the consumption levels of the young older adults who are in areas with a higher inclination toward cultural services. In light of these findings, the study advocates for increased investment in public cultural services, establishment of diverse social platforms, and encouragement of the young older adults to engage in diverse and frequent social activities. Simultaneously, it is important to regulate the development of industries catering to older adults to diversify their consumption patterns and unlock their consumption potentials. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics