Abstract: China has entered an era of low fertility, showing low fertility intention and declining number of births. Using the 2012-2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data, this study constructs an index system to measure subjective well-being based on the “sense of gain, happiness and security” (i.e., three senses of people's livelihood) proposed in the 19th National Congress report of the CPC. It measures people's fertility intention from two aspects: the intention to have children and the ideal number of children. This study explores the influence of subjective well-being on fertility intention and reveals a significant positive impact. Specifically, the sense of happiness mainly affects the ideal number of children, while the sense of security mainly affects the intention to have children. The sense of gain significantly influences both aspects and exhibits the largest effect. Moreover, with the development of China's economy and the gradual liberalization of the fertility policy, the positive influence of the subjective well-being on the intention to have children is gradually weakening, while its influence on the ideal number of children is increasing.

Keywords: Fertility Intention, Subjective Well-being, Three Senses of People's Livelihood

摘要： 中国已经长期处于低生育率状态,国民生育意愿低迷,新生人口规模缩减。基于2012~2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,以十九大报告提出的“获得感、幸福感、安全感”(简称“民生三感”)为参照构建指标体系来测度主观福利水平,从意愿生育倾向和理想生育子女数两方面衡量生育意愿,探究主观福利对生育意愿的影响及其作用机制。研究结果显示,主观福利对生育意愿具有显著正向影响;从“民生三感”看,幸福感侧重影响理想生育子女数,安全感主要作用于意愿生育倾向,而获得感对两方面均具有显著影响,且影响最大;随着中国经济的持续发展以及生育政策的逐步放开,主观福利对意愿生育倾向的正向影响逐渐减弱,对理想生育子女数的正向影响却在逐渐增强。

关键词: 生育意愿, 主观福利, 获得感, 幸福感, 安全感