Population Research

Population Structure Reconstruction and Human Capital Accounting in China from 2000 to 2020

Wang Jinying, Zhang Guoting

2024, 48(1): 3-21.

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Continuous and complete population data by age and education level are the basis for studying the dynamic relationship between population and economic and social development in a country or region. However, in non-census years, such data cannot be directly obtained or its quality cannot be guaranteed. To this end, the national population census data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 are used to reconstruct the population data by age and education level for non-census years from 2000 to 2020 using the population discrete development equation forward and backward bidirectional feedback fitting method. Based on this, an improved accounting model is used to calculate the human capital stock from 2000 to 2020.The research results show that the difference between the reconstructed non-census year total population data and the adjusted data from the National Bureau of Statistics is very small. The reconstructed age-specific population data corrected the bias in the age composition data published in previous statistical yearbooks. The calculated data on human capital stock shows that it increased from 15.856 billion person-years in 2000 to 26.479 billion person-years in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 2.60%. Affected by the ageing population and the decrease in the working age population, the growth rate of human capital stock shows a decreasing trend between the first and the second ten-year periods.

China's Population Quality to Complement Population Quantity: Intrinsic Mechanism and Realization Path

Hu Yaoling, Xu Yangyang

2024, 48(1): 22-39.

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Using data from censuses and statistical yearbooks between 2000 and 2020 and World Population Prospects 2022, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation model for labor force quality to estimate the nominal labor supply and effective labor supply equivalent in China and analyze the feasibility and realization path of population quality complementing population quantity. The results show that China's nominal labor supply will drop from 744.7 million in 2020 to 565.9 million in 2050. Although the effective labor supply equivalent is higher than the nominal labor supply, it is constrained by the decline of the labor force. The effective labor supply equivalent will peak at 752.9 million in 2028 and then drop to 643.1 million in 2050. By improving the relative labor quality through educational reform and health interventions, the year of the peak can be postponed until 2032, and it can remain over 714 million before 2050, achieving the population quality complementing quantity in the short term. In the long term, fully leveraging the compensatory effect of population quality cannot be achieved without a certain population size. It is necessary to strengthen the policy system further to support fertility.

Internet Use and the Life of Older Adults Aged 50 and above in Digital Era:Findings from a National Survey

Jin Yongai, Hu Wenbo, Feng Yang

2024, 48(1): 40-55.

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The swift rise in China's ageing population coincides with the rapid advancement of informatization, presenting unparalleled opportunities and challenges in addressing China's ageing issues. From 2010 to 2022, the percentage of internet users within the 50-59 age group escalated from 11.1% to 73.5%, while in the 60 and above age group, it surged from 4.9% to 54.5%. The examination of how internet use impacts the lives of older adults using the latest empirical data has gained increasing significance. Key findings are as follows: It highlights a profound integration of the internet into the lives of older adults; there exists considerable diversity in internet usage patterns among older adults; it remains crucial to recognize the persistent digital divide among older adults, and elevating cybersecurity awareness among them is paramount to safeguard against potential online threats; furthermore, moderate internet use has shown to positively impact healthy ageing and contribute to the subjective well-being of older individuals. These findings underscore the urgent need to create a digital society that accommodates older adults. This necessitates concerted efforts from governments, enterprises, communities, families, and the older adults themselves. Collective participation and collaborative work are pivotal in cultivating an environment that supports and empowers this demographic within the digital landscape.

Are Older People “Addicted” to the Internet? Concepts, Phenomena, and Impacts

Zhai Zhenwu, Zhang Yiyang, Peng Lanling

2024, 48(1): 56-67.

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With the growth of internet usage among older people, concerns about “older adults' internet addiction” frequently appear in media and research. To achieve a comprehensive understanding of “older adults' internet addiction”, this study discusses the concepts, phenomena, and impacts of “internet addiction”. “Internet addiction” is characterized by three features, including “excessive use”, “damage to primary activities and social functions”, and “persistent and prolonged states”. Existing discussions and studies mainly focus on the single dimension of “excessive use”, exaggerating the issue of “older adults' internet addiction”. Data from the “Survey on the Digital Divide and Integration of the Older Adults in China” show a low proportion of older people who are addicted to the Internet. Currently, the main challenge in the internet lives of older adults is how to deal with the “digital divide”. To enhance the internet accessibility and proficiency of older adults, we suggest upgrading the intelligent device hardware, software, and functions for their convenience and providing guidance on smartphone use for older people. This will help older adults benefit from the development dividends in the internet era.

Artificial Intelligence, Labor Demand, and Human Capital Investments

Liu Jianan, Xing Chunbing

2024, 48(1): 68-84.

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Based on the data from the population census and sampling survey, this paper constructs instrumental variable regression models to study how the use of industrial robots affects labor demand for workers with different skills, and how the demand shocks affect individuals' human capital investments in local labor markets under the development of artificial intelligence. The study finds that the use of industrial robots has substitution effects for low-skilled non-agricultural workers, while it creates job opportunities for high-skilled non-agricultural workers. The induced demand shocks further affect individuals' human capital investments. Specifically, the substitution of employment of the low-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering regular college, and the boost of employment of the high-skilled significantly increases the probability of an individual entering both high school and regular college. However, both effects discourage human capital investments in vocational education. The results indicate that the popularization of artificial intelligence could promote human capital investments, improving population quality and mitigating the negative impact of population decline. Meanwhile, future policies should improve and support the integration of vocational education with the regular educational system to adapt to the labor demand changes brought by the artificial intelligence development.

How Does Population Ageing Affect the Application of Industrial Robots?

Liu Bin, Wang Yu

2024, 48(1): 85-102.

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Population ageing, as a common phenomenon in developed countries, has now become a challenge for many developing countries in the “post-demographic dividend era”. Although population ageing causes supply-side shocks such as labor shortages, its impact also includes positive aspects. By using UN population data and industrial robot data, this study examines how population ageing affects the application of industrial robots. The results indicate a significant increase in the utilization of industrial robot due to population ageing. This effect is realized through three channels: the labor cost anti-driving effect, the human-machine conflict weakening effect, and the human capital accumulation effect. Furthermore, the results of heterogeneity analysis show that the driving force is more pronounced in countries (regions) with higher strategic readiness, technical readiness, and talent readiness in the field of intelligent manufacturing. Therefore, it is crucial to strengthen strategic deployment, technological research, and talent training in the field of intelligent manufacturing to unblock the channels for releasing the positive impact of population ageing.

Status and Changes of the Rural Children Left Behind in China: 2010-2020

Lyu Lidan, Mei Ziying, Li Rui, Li Shu, Yan Fang, Wang Xu, Duan Chengrong

2024, 48(1): 103-117.

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The phenomenon and issues of rural children left behind (RCLB) in China are affecting the flow of human capital between urban and rural areas. This paper clarifies the definition and steps for identifying RCLB, and uses the micro-data of the 2010 and 2020 Population Censuses to analyze relevant characteristics and changing trends over the past ten years. The analysis includes the following aspects: population size of RCLB, their age and sex structure, regional distribution, living arrangements, and educational development. The findings show that the population size of RCLB remained large, and the likelihood of being left-behind was closely related to age and sex. An increasing proportion of RCLB were cared for by grandparents as more mothers migrated between 2010 and 2020. RCLB no longer had any advantage in education opportunity compared with the average level of rural children. Over-age attendance was more noticeable among RCLB than the average level of rural children. We should continue to pay attention to the issue of RCLB and address its root causes.

The Impact of Subjective Well-being on Fertility Intention: An Empirical Study Based on CGSS Data

Zhu Li, Huang Bolin, Liu Chengjun, Peng Gang

2024, 48(1): 118-132.

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China has entered an era of low fertility, showing low fertility intention and declining number of births. Using the 2012-2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data, this study constructs an index system to measure subjective well-being based on the “sense of gain, happiness and security” (i.e., three senses of people's livelihood) proposed in the 19th National Congress report of the CPC. It measures people's fertility intention from two aspects: the intention to have children and the ideal number of children. This study explores the influence of subjective well-being on fertility intention and reveals a significant positive impact. Specifically, the sense of happiness mainly affects the ideal number of children, while the sense of security mainly affects the intention to have children. The sense of gain significantly influences both aspects and exhibits the largest effect. Moreover, with the development of China's economy and the gradual liberalization of the fertility policy, the positive influence of the subjective well-being on the intention to have children is gradually weakening, while its influence on the ideal number of children is increasing.

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