Abstract: This article presents a matrix to analyze the ethnic identity of children from interethnic marriage families. Based on the population balance equation, this study uses individual level data from the seventh national population census to estimate the net effects of ethnic identity on the population change between 2010 and 2020 and examine the preferences among different ethnic groups. An increase of approximately 8.57 million children were from interethnic marriage families over the decade, with nearly 40% of the ethnic minority increase experiencing ethnic identity choices. The size of net population increase due to ethnic identity choices of the ethnic minority was about 1.95 million, accounting for about one-tenth of the increase in the ethnic minority population. For children from Han-minority intermarriage families, about 79.33% had ethnic minority identity. The population changes among different minority groups were mainly driven by the sizes and preferences of children from Han-minority intermarriage families. There were variations in interethnic preference among different interethnic marriage circles.

Keywords: Ethnic Identity, Ethnic Population Change, Population Census

摘要： 通过构建族际通婚家庭子女民族成份选择矩阵，基于人口平衡方程，利用第七次全国人口普查微观数据估算2010~2020年间影响各民族人口变动的净族际选择人数，并分析各民族之间的选择偏好。研究发现，10年间全国共新增族际通婚家庭子女约857万人，少数民族中发生民族成份选择的新增人口占比近四成；少数民族整体的净族际选择人数达195万人，约占同期少数民族新增人口的1/10；汉族与少数民族通婚家庭中，子女选择少数民族成份的比例高达79.33%；各少数民族人口变动主要取决于各少数民族与汉族通婚家庭子女的规模及民族成份选择偏好；少数民族之间通婚家庭子女的民族成份选择偏好存在通婚圈差异。

关键词: 民族成份选择, 民族人口变动, 人口普查