Population Research

China’s Longevity Levels from the Perspective of Centenarians

Du Peng, Wu Cilin

2024, 48(3): 3-19.

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When discussing longevity levels, the centenarian population representing an extremely significant group is often overlooked. Based on data from the Seventh National Population Census, China surpassed the United States and had the largest number of centenarians in the world in 2020. China’s proportion of centenarians was also higher than the global average, becoming a country with a huge longevity population. However, there remains a gap compared to developed regions, and further progress is needed to become a leading country in longevity. In China, the eastern regions have the highest number and proportion of centenarians. Urban centenarians outnumber their rural counterparts, and about 70.4% of centenarians are female. The number and proportion of centenarians have increased across different ethnic groups, though disparities exist. To transition from a country with a huge longevity population to a leading country in longevity, China should rely on high-quality development led by the Chinese Path to Modernization. The government should implement comprehensive policies integrating political guidance, economic development, social security, cultural and spiritual life, and environmental protection to promote the development of longevity.

Future Trends and Mechanisms of the Surge of Deaths in China

Zhang Zhen, Li Qiang

2024, 48(3): 20-34.

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With the accelerating ageing process of the population, China is facing an unprecedented mortality peak dominated by the older population. Mathematical demography analysis reveals that the evolution of the mortality peak depends on three intertwined demographic factors: (1) historical fertility peaks and troughs play a dominant role in shaping the mortality population, (2) increased survival rates expand the elderly population base, thereby increasing the number of elderly deaths, and (3) period mortality rate declines contribute to reducing the mortality peak. As these three factors have varying effects on different birth cohorts, ages, and periods, age-specific deaths exhibit significant fluctuations. However, when summing up deaths across all ages, the fluctuations at different ages offset each other to some extent, resulting in a relatively smooth trend in the total number of deaths. Although the massive number of deaths among the elderly are a natural outcome of the demographic transition, China’s mortality peak is approaching rapidly and on an unprecedented scale, posing severe challenges to individuals, families, and society as a whole. The government and all sectors of society need to formulate proactive coping strategies as early as possible

An Extended Study of the Theory of Intergenerational Wealth Flows

Chen Youhua, Yang Huikang

2024, 48(3): 35-51.

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John Caldwell developed the theory of intergenerational wealth flows at the micro-family level, which suggests that changes in family economic relations, particularly changes in the direction of intergenerational wealth flows within families, have led to fertility transition. It is undoubtedly original, but there are problems with its application and explanation. Based on the empirical facts described by the theory, an attempt is made to operationalize its concepts and core propositions, and to illustrate them empirically with the indicators and data provided by the National Transfer Accounts (NTA). It is found that introducing the direction of intergenerational wealth flows at the public level leads to more combinations of the direction of intergenerational wealth flows at different levels. Along with population ageing, changes in the direction of public-level intergenerational wealth flows can lead to a bottom-up shift in the direction of the aggregated flow. The shift is influenced by the demographic factors and the average age-specific transfers.

Evaluation of the Rationality of Population Distribution of Urban Agglomerations in China: Based on the Analysis of Economic Benefits of Urban Agglomerations

Tong Yufen, Han Jiabin, Yang Yanfei

2024, 48(3): 52-64.

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The rationality of the population distribution of urban agglomerations is related to the high-quality development of urban agglomerations. Aiming at maximizing the economic benefits of urban agglomerations, this paper deduces the formula for the Structure Rationality Index (E-Zipf) of population distribution. It uses the panel data of 19 major urban agglomerations in China from 2010 to 2020 and adopts the systematic GMM method to calculate E-Zipf. The results show that the E-Zipf index of urban agglomerations in China is 1.33, which is higher than 1. Taking 1.33 as the standard, compared to the traditional standard of 1, the population distribution of 6 urban agglomerations is under-agglomeration rather than over-agglomeration. The results of rational classification show that the population distribution of 6 urban agglomerations, 5 urban agglomerations, and 8 urban agglomerations is reasonable, over-agglomerated, and under-agglomerated, respectively. Over-agglomerated urban areas need to disperse the population of the central city and appropriately develop the peripheral cities, while under-agglomerated areas need to continue to concentrate population in their core cities.

Ethnic Identity of Children from Interethnic Marriage Families and Its Impact on Ethnic Population Changes

Wang Li, Zhou Siyao

2024, 48(3): 65-80.

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This article presents a matrix to analyze the ethnic identity of children from interethnic marriage families. Based on the population balance equation, this study uses individual level data from the seventh national population census to estimate the net effects of ethnic identity on the population change between 2010 and 2020 and examine the preferences among different ethnic groups. An increase of approximately 8.57 million children were from interethnic marriage families over the decade, with nearly 40% of the ethnic minority increase experiencing ethnic identity choices. The size of net population increase due to ethnic identity choices of the ethnic minority was about 1.95 million, accounting for about one-tenth of the increase in the ethnic minority population. For children from Han-minority intermarriage families, about 79.33% had ethnic minority identity. The population changes among different minority groups were mainly driven by the sizes and preferences of children from Han-minority intermarriage families. There were variations in interethnic preference among different interethnic marriage circles.

Policy Effects of China’s Pilot Reforms in Home- and Community-based Eldercare Services

Wang Yongmei, Zhang Shuo, Gong Xiaoyan

2024, 48(3): 81-97.

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This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the policy effects of China’s pilot reforms in home- and community-based eldercare services using panel data from the China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey (CLASS) for 2014 and 2020 and a difference-in-differences (DID) model. An “individual-family” dual-effects model is built for this purpose. The aforementioned analysis reveals the following four results. First, the “mental health effects” of the pilot reforms were validated by the data from the pilot policies, yet primarily evident in female older people and urban elderly. Second, the pilot reforms showed quite high family spillover effects and notably inspired filial piety and relevant behaviors among children towards their older parents, which played an important role in promoting family development and the reconstruction of filial norms in the new era. Third, the pilot reforms expanded the social networks of older people, thus improving their mental health. Finally, although the core achievement of the pilot reforms lay in daily care services, they provided a path for the integrated development of medical care and health care with their extensive health assessments. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights for advancing the high-quality development of China’s home- and community-based service systems.

Older Chinese Women’s Disability Trajectories and Influencing Factors: Urban-rural and Cohort Differences

Hu Hongwei, Guo Hongwang, Liu Yujia

2024, 48(3): 98-113.

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Older women are at a high risk of disability. Using data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) from 1998 to 2018, this study identifies the trajectories of activities of daily living and cognition of older women in China through a group-based trajectory model and its extended model. It also compares the disparities in disability trajectories and their influencing factors between urban and rural areas and across cohorts. The results show three categories for the activities of daily living trajectories of older Chinese women: stable throughout life, risky in later life, and high-risky throughout life. There are two cognitive trajectories: low-starting risk and high-starting risk. The joint identification results show that the probability of experiencing both the activity of daily living impairment and cognitive impairment is as high as 0.109 for older women. Social capital, social security, childhood adverse experiences, and health behaviors affect older women’s disability trajectories. The disability care policies in China should consider demographic health disparities and prioritize lifelong health protection.

The Influence of Adverse Experiences on the Health of Chinese Older Adults: Mechanism Analysis of Adverse Childhood Experiences and Moderating Analysis of Current Experiences

Zhao Menghan, Huang Yuanfeng

2024, 48(3): 114-128.

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China has recently implemented strategies to actively address population ageing and healthy China. Understanding the influence of adverse experiences on older adults’ health helps improve the lifelong health service policy. Using data from the China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey (CLASS) conducted in 2018 and 2020, this study analyzes the impact of adverse childhood experiences on older adults’ health and the mediating effect of individuals’ years of education, health behaviors, and budget constraints. Results show that adverse childhood experiences negatively affect older adults’ health indirectly through education or budget constraints. Further analysis shows that positive current experiences benefit older adults’ self-rated health and activities of daily living, while adverse current experiences have negative impacts on multiple dimensions of health. Adverse childhood experiences moderate the impact of adverse current experiences. In contrast to those without adverse childhood experiences, adverse current experiences have smaller negative effects on the self-rated health and chronic diseases of those who have experienced adverse childhood experiences.

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