Table of Content

29 July 2024, Volume 48 Issue 4

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Deeply Study and Implement the Spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee

The Impact of Fertility Support Policy on Fertility Desire of the Reproductive-Age Population: An Empirical Analysis Based on 2021 Chengdu Specialized Survey

Wang Zhuo, Li Menghe

2024, 48(4):  3-18. 

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To explore the impact of fertility support policy on fertility desire and its mechanisms, this study divides fertility support policy into pregnancy support policy and parenting support policy based on fertility behavior, and conductes empirical analysis using the special survey data of “Effectiveness evaluation of fertility policy and supporting measures” in Chengdu in 2021. The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between pregnancy support policy and fertility desire, while the relationship between parenting support policy and fertility intention is not supported by empirical evidence. In further exploring of the differential mechanisms of fertility cost perceptions and fertility preferences in the impact of pregnancy support policies on fertility desire, the childbearing age groups can be classified into four categories: “daring but not willing to give birth”, “not willing and not daring to give birth”, “daring and willing to give birth” and “willing but not daring to give birth”. Different policy directions are applicable to different types of childbearing age groups under different mechanisms. Therefore, constructing a long-term fertility support policy system requires the scientific identification of target groups and precise policies to improve policy effectiveness and to effectively enhance fertility levels.

Affordability of Childcare Institutions for Children Aged 0-2 and Its Impact on Women's Fertility Intentions in Taiwan, China

Zhang Lei, Zhuang Xiaoxu, Fu Shanghao

2024, 48(4):  19-32. 

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The long-term low fertility intentions in Taiwan,China have led to a widespread and urgent demand for affordable childcare services. However, studies have rarely discussed the measurement of service affordability and its impact on fertility intentions. Based on the data from “Women's Marriage, Fertility and Employment Survey” (WMFES) in Taiwan,China conducted in 2016, this study constructs an affordability index of childcare institutions to analyze the impacts of the achievement of childcare affordability policy goals at the household level and the individual-level childcare affordability on women's fertility intentions. The results show that only 15.36% of women at childbearing age in Taiwan,China intended to have a/another child. The proportion of families that achieve childcare affordability policy goals is about 20%. If this goal is set at 15%, the goal achievement has a significant positive impact on women's intention to continue to have children. For every 1 unit increase in women's own and their spouse's affordability for childcare institutions, the probabilities of continuing to have children increase by 51.02% and 15.23%, respectively. The empirical results and practical experience in Taiwan,China provide valuable insights for the provinces in Mainland China in establishing the pricing system and implementing pricing supervision and management for childcare services.

Constructing China's Independent Demographic Knowledge System

Living Arrangements of the Contemporary Older People in China: An Analysis Based on Three Perspectives

Wang Yuesheng

2024, 48(4):  33-50. 

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This paper uses the short-form, long-form, and long-form 1% sampling data from the seventh national population census to analyze the living style of the elderly aged 65 and above. According to the data in the short form, among households with two elderly people, the percentage of elderly couples living alone is more than 55%, while among households with one elderly person, more than 36% of the elderly live alone. The data in the long form show that the vast majority of the elderly live at home, and less than 1% live in institutions. According to the long-form 1% sampling data, the total proportion of elderly couples living alone and singles living alone exceeds 50%. China's contemporary elderly people has entered an era dominated by couples living alone and single living alone.

From being “Supplementary” to being “Irreplaceable”: The Impact of Digital Literacy on the Reemployment Transition of the Retired People

Chen Nanxu, Li Yuxuan, Wu Jiyu

2024, 48(4):  51-68. 

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In the era of rapid expansion of the digital economy and the gradual erosion of demographic dividends, enhancing digital literacy provides a new opportunity for the retired population to re-realize their self-worth and harness their comparative advantages. Based on the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, this paper empirically investigates the influence of digital literacy on retirees' re-employment transitions by employing binary Logit and Probit models. The results show that the improvement of digital literacy notably fosters retirees' transition into reemployment, and this promoting effect is stronger among those with greater learning investments. The primary mechanisms underlying this enhancement lie in social integration and social capital augmentation, while the effectiveness of information acquisition depends on retirees' ability to discern information. Notably, the positive impact of improved digital literacy on reemployment is more pronounced among older adults with higher educational attainment and in regions with lower levels of digital economic development. It is recommended that the delayed retirement ages be formulated differentially to facilitate the construction of a digitally inclusive and age-friendly society.

Ageing Studies

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Growth of Health Expenditure: An Analysis Based on the Multidimensional Factor Decomposition Method

Xu Duo, Wang Xiangzhen, Fu Hongqiao

2024, 48(4):  69-83. 

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As the population ageing process accelerates, the sustainability of China's health system faces increasingly significant challenges. Therefore, exploring the impact of population ageing on health expenditure is of great importance. Based on data from hospital admission records in Beijing and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, the Das Gupta decomposition method is adopted to analyze the contribution of population ageing to the growth of health expenditure. The analysis of hospital admission records from 2016 to 2019 reveals that the change in the age structure contributed 22.44% to the growth of hospitalization expenses. CFPS estimates show similar national results. The impact of population ageing on health expenditure is more pronounced among the elderly, with age structure changes accounting for 24.24%, 37.47%, and 31.51% of the variations of hospitalization expense for patients aged 50-64, 65-79, and 80 years old and above, respectively. Improving healthcare financing, promoting healthy ageing, and enhancing system efficiency are recommended.

The Effect of Social Activities on the Consumption of the Young Old

Sheng Yinan, Shang Jiajia

2024, 48(4):  84-98. 

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With the cohort replacement and rapid growth of older population, the young older adults have become the main force driving older adults' consumption, gaining growing importance in overall residential consumption. Based on data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this study empirically examines the impact of social activities on the consumption of the young older adults. Results show that the diversity of social activities and the frequency of social participation significantly increase consumption levels, and contribute to the upgrading of consumption patterns. The participation in social activities of the young older adults weakens the negative effect of early family economic disadvantages on consumption levels. Furthermore, the effects of social activities are more pronounced in increasing the consumption levels of the young older adults who are in areas with a higher inclination toward cultural services. In light of these findings, the study advocates for increased investment in public cultural services, establishment of diverse social platforms, and encouragement of the young older adults to engage in diverse and frequent social activities. Simultaneously, it is important to regulate the development of industries catering to older adults to diversify their consumption patterns and unlock their consumption potentials.

Migration Studies

Chain Urbanization: Living Arrangements of Rural-urban Migrant Families in China

Wu Kaize, Wang Wenxiu, Dong Huiling, Cui Can

2024, 48(4):  99-114. 

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Based on the 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS2016), this study examines the spatial distribution patterns of core family members and housing location choices of rural-urban migrant families. Migrant families have formed diversified living arrangements such as family reunification with homeownership in the destination city, family reunification without homeownership in the destination city, urban-rural split and urban-town split living arrangements. Those with higher human capital, richer family resources and an urge for a marital home are more likely to purchase housing in either the destination city or the hukou registered hometown town or city. Migrant families in super megacities and those with a higher level of economic development in their hukou registered place are more likely to seek housing opportunities in their hukou registered hometown town or city. Under the constraints of reality, migrant families optimize collective familial benefits by allocating resources, such as family members and housing, across diverse spatial domains. This strategy facilitates the urbanization of migrants into cities while also offering them the option to return to their rural hometowns. This implies a multi-stage and step-wise chain urbanization process, which requires a family relay to achieve family reunification and citizenization.

The Evolution of International Migration in the United States from 1990 to 2020

Ding Zhihong, Wang Tianzheng

2024, 48(4):  115-132. 

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Based on the “Yearbook of Immigration Statistics” published by the United States Department of Homeland Security and the Global Migration Stock Database released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, this paper systematically analyzes the scale, structure, origins, and destinations of international migration to and from the United States from 1990 to 2020. The study finds that the scale of international immigration to the United States is significant, having gone through four phases over the past 30 years: decline, rebound, fluctuation, and decline again. The immigrant population mainly consists of people of working age, with a stable gender ratio. North America (excluding the United States) and Asia are the primary sources of immigrants to the United States. Additionally, the top ten countries and regions of origin for immigrants have remained relatively stable. On the other hand, international emigration from the United States has experienced three phases over the past 30 years: increase, decrease, and rebound. The gender differences in the emigrant population are generally small but vary significantly across different regions. Europe and North America remain the primary destinations for American emigrants, but an increasing number of Americans are emigrating to Asia. The patterns and governance of international migration in the United States have multiple implications for China.