Abstract: The long-term low fertility intentions in Taiwan,China have led to a widespread and urgent demand for affordable childcare services. However, studies have rarely discussed the measurement of service affordability and its impact on fertility intentions. Based on the data from “Women's Marriage, Fertility and Employment Survey” (WMFES) in Taiwan,China conducted in 2016, this study constructs an affordability index of childcare institutions to analyze the impacts of the achievement of childcare affordability policy goals at the household level and the individual-level childcare affordability on women's fertility intentions. The results show that only 15.36% of women at childbearing age in Taiwan,China intended to have a/another child. The proportion of families that achieve childcare affordability policy goals is about 20%. If this goal is set at 15%, the goal achievement has a significant positive impact on women's intention to continue to have children. For every 1 unit increase in women's own and their spouse's affordability for childcare institutions, the probabilities of continuing to have children increase by 51.02% and 15.23%, respectively. The empirical results and practical experience in Taiwan,China provide valuable insights for the provinces in Mainland China in establishing the pricing system and implementing pricing supervision and management for childcare services.

Keywords: Childcare Institutions, Policy Goals for Childcare Affordability, Individual Affordability, Fertility Intentions, Taiwan, China

摘要： 中国台湾地区生育意愿长期低迷，对可负担的托育服务的需求普遍而迫切，但有关服务可负担性的测量及其对生育意愿的影响的讨论尚不充分。基于中国台湾地区“妇女婚育与就业调查”(WMFES)数据，构建托育机构服务可负担性指标，分析家庭托育机构服务可负担政策目标达成情况及个体托育机构服务可负担能力对女性生育意愿的影响。研究发现，中国台湾地区育龄女性中仅 15.36%有(继续)生育意愿，家庭托育机构服务可负担政策目标达成比例约为两成；可负担政策目标设为15%时，达成家庭托育机构服务可负担政策目标对女性继续生育意愿有显著正向影响；女性与配偶个人托育机构服务可负担能力每提升1个单位，女性拥有继续生育意愿的概率分别提高51.02%和15.23%。上述实证结果和台湾地区的实践经验为祖国大陆各省(自治区、直辖市)建立托育服务定价制度和落实定价监督与管理提供了有价值的借鉴和参考。

关键词: 托育机构, 可负担政策目标, 可负担能力, 生育意愿, 中国台湾地区