人口研究 ›› 2002, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (3): 26-32 .

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

有关区域合理人口规模定量研究方法的讨论

陈家华1,文宇翔2,李大鹏2   

  1. 复旦大学人口研究所,上海 200433
  • 出版日期:2002-05-29 发布日期:2015-03-16
  • 作者简介:1 复旦大学人口研究所,副教授;2 复旦大学人口研究所,硕士研究生

Discussion on Quantitative Analysis Method of Regional Reasonable Population Size

Chen Jiahua1, Wen Yuxiang2 and Li Dapeng3   

  1. Institute of Population Research at Fudan University, Shanghai 200433
  • Online:2002-05-29 Published:2015-03-16
  • About author:1 associate professor of Institute of Population Research at Fudan University;2 M.A.candidate of Institute of Population Research at Fudan University; 3 M.A.candidate of Institute of Population Research at Fudan University

摘要: 区域合理人口规模的定量研究具有显著的政策涵义 ,因此应该更严谨地评估其研究结论的准确性。本文以上海浦东新区为例 ,简要介绍了EOP -MM和P -S两种模型估算的该地区未来可能的适度人口规模 ,并在此基础上 ,讨论了以上两个模型的优势和不足 ,最后提出了选择区域合理人口规模定量研究模型的标准。

关键词: 区域研究, 人口容量, 研究方法

Abstract: Since policy implications are outstanding in quantitatively analyzing the regional reasonable population size , it is even more necessary to evaluate strictly the accuracy of the research outcome .This paper takes East Huang Pu Area as an example , introducing briefly the possible reasonable population size in this area in the future by the EOP-MM Model and P-S Model .Based on that , the paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both models and puts forward the standard of selecting models for the quantitative analysis of regional reasonable population size .

Keywords: regional analysis, population size, research method