人口研究 ›› 2002, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (3): 9-15 .

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

对第五次全国人口普查数据中总量和结构的估计

于学军1   

  1. 1 中国人口信息研究中心,北京 100081
  • 出版日期:2002-05-29 发布日期:2015-03-16
  • 作者简介:1 中国人口信息研究中心,研究员

Estimation of Size and Structure of Chinese Population by the Fifth National Census

Yu Xuejun1   

  1. 1 China Population Information and Research Center, Beijing 100081
  • Online:2002-05-29 Published:2015-03-16
  • About author:1 professor of China Population Information and Research Center

摘要: 本文对第五次人口普查有关数据进行粗略分析后发现 ,官方公布的人口总数与年龄结构存在一定程度的不吻合。第五次人口普查公布的未成年人口数量过低 ,由此估计的总和生育率甚至低于政策生育水平 ,令人难以置信。文章在分析了出现这种现象的各种可能性后 ,对目前中国生育水平进行了估计。

关键词: 人口普查, 年龄结构, 生育水平, 未成年人口, 总人口

Abstract: This paper observed contradiction between size and structure of Chinese population based on the information of the fifth national census data issued by the China State Statistical Bureau .Evidences show that the size population aged 0 ~ 14 is underreported, and the estimated Total Fertility Rate is too low to be reliable .The author also analyzes some possible reasons of this phenomenon , and gives some suggestions for adjusting the fertility level .

Keywords: population census, age structure, fertility level, population aged 0-14;total population