关键词: 耕地资源人口生存系数, 城乡人口结构, 耕地红线, 城镇化水平

Abstract: The purpose of investigating the Population Survival Coefficient of Arable Land Resources ( PSCL) of China is to examine the coordinated development relationship between land output benefit and population survival needs under the current urban and rural population structure. We build a general PSCL model and the first -order ( PSCL1 ) and second-order ( PSCL2 ) exponential PSCL models，with the PSCL high and low moderate line and the test standards，to conduct the statistical analysis of the national and provincial PSCL. Results show that China’s existing PSCL1 is higher and moderate test is adequate，but PSCL2 is lower and moderate test is inadequate. Under the current level of urbanization，the bottom line of 1.8 billion mu arable land could only meet the lower limit of the demand of the current urban and rural populations，and the balance of population-land relation would occur in 2030. China’s PSCL is affected by urban and rural population growth，urbanization level and land output benefit，which are the key factors to improve PSCL in China.

Keywords: Population Survival Coefficient of Arable Land Resources, Urban and Rural Population Structure, Urbanization Level, Bottom Line for the Preservation of Arable Land