关键词: 生育意愿, 理想子女数, 生育意愿调查, 生育政策

Abstract: In preparing for fertility policy adjustment and implementing the “Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings”，a national fertility intention survey was conducted in 29 provinces in China in August 2013. Survey results indicate that，currently，the ideal number of children is 1.93 in China. The reported ideal number of children in regions with 1 child，1.5 and 2 children policies are 1.84，1.98 and 2.01 respectively. For the couples both of which have no siblings，one of which has siblings and both of which have siblings，the reported ideal numbers of children are 1.79，1.83 and 1.95 respectively. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child，the reported ideal number of children is 1.81. The overall sex ratio of reported ideal numbers of children is 104 males per 100 females in China. The sex ratio is 128 for those whose ideal number of children is 1 and 102 for those whose ideal number of children is 2. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child，59% are“uncertain”about the birth timing of next child，20.5% plan to give a birth in one year，12.1% plan to give a birth in two years and 8.4% plan to have one in three years. Adjustment of family planning policy will help narrow the gap between fertility intention and fertility behavior，and it is highly unlikely that a nation-wide birth heaping would occur if the“Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings”is well implemented.

Keywords: Fertility Intention, Ideal Number of Children, Fertility Intention Survey, Fertility Policy