关键词: 人口均衡发展, 人口转变, 生育政策, 微观仿真

Abstract: China experienced an early arrival of aged society around the turn of the century due to its rapid demographic transition．In order to keep the equilibrium development of population，it is essential to address the dilemma of the large population size and the unbalanced population structure under cer- tain resource，technology and institution conditions．If the government implements the universal two- child policy in time，and further adjusts the population and related socio-economic policies to increase TFＲto about 1. 8 and then gradually make it return to the replacement level，a stable population will be approximately achieved in the next 30 or 40 years．The age structure，together with the urban and rural composition will both reach a stable level．The proportion of population aged 60 or over will reach one- third，which is almost the average level of developed countries as a whole but still lower than that of Germany and Japan，and the urbanization rate will reach 75 percent．At that time，the human capital accumulation will rank forefront among the world，the modernization will be realized，and the balance among the factors of population itself and the development of economy，society，resources and envi- ronment is expected to be maintained．

Keywords:  Population Equilibrium Development, Demographic Transition, Fertility Policy, Microsimu- lation