关键词: &ldquo, 单独二孩&rdquo, 政策, &ldquo, 全面二孩&rdquo, 政策, 二孩生育意愿, 理想子女数

Abstract: Fertility intention is the preponed variable affecting the actual fertility level，providing im- portant information for predicting fertility level．A survey with a large sample size is conducted to investi- gate the fertility desires for wanting the second child of the couples under the selective and universal two-child policies in Shandong Province．The results show that the fertility desires and the ideal number of children in the two types of families are basically the same，and factors including subjective consider- ations，regional disparity，residential properties，education level，and the sex of the first child also have similar effects on the fertility desires of the two types of families．However，salient gaps exist in fertility planning，subjective considerations for not wanting to have the second child，and zodiac preference between the two types of families．Under a binary logistic regression model，sex of the first child，age， region，and subjective considerations show significant impact on fertility desires for wanting the second child in the two types of families．Furthermore，couples under the universal two-child policy primarily consider the risk of losing the only child as the intention for wanting the second one，while couples un- der the selective two-child policy care more about pension and psychological needs which are stated to be the main reasons of wanting the second child．

Keywords: A Selective Two-child Policy, A Universal Two-child Policy, Fertility Intention, Ideal Num- ber of Children