人口研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 101-112.

• 论文 • 上一篇    

中国人口老龄化对金融资产价格影响研究

齐明珠   

  1. 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院
  • 出版日期:2017-09-29 发布日期:2018-01-04
  • 作者简介:齐明珠,首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院教授。
  • 基金资助:
    本文受首都经济贸易大学重大科研项目与成果培育计划人口变动对资产价格的长期影响及预警机制研究资助。

The Effects of Population Ageing on Financial Assets Price in China

Qi Mingzhu   

  1. School of Labor EconomicsCapital University of Economics and Business
  • Online:2017-09-29 Published:2018-01-04
  • About author:Qi Mingzhu is Professor, School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics andBusiness.

摘要:         文章对国内外相关文献进行系统的回顾建立了人口老龄化对金融资产价格作用的机理和路径利用中国 1990 ~ 2015 年历史数据建立人口老龄化和金融资产价格之间关系的向量自回( Vector AutoregressionVAR) 模型实证分析结果表明人口老龄化对金融资产价格有稳定的负向影从预测角度脉冲分析结果进一步证实如果对人口老龄化程度添加 1 个额外的正向冲击将对金融资产价格产生长期的负向影响文章认为中国人口老龄化在未来不会导致金融资产价格崩溃但金融资产回报率的下降需要引起警惕因为未来退休人口将更多地依赖个人储蓄及资产回报而非传统的退休金文章对中国未来金融资产价格的下降趋势提出预警提出政府应该前瞻性地从人口和金融两方面加强宏观管理做出政策选择

关键词: 人口老龄化 , 金融资产价格 , 资产价格崩溃 , 政策预警

Abstract:          Building up the path way linking population ageing and financial assets price and using historical data of 1990- 2015 in Chinathis paper applies a vector autoregression model to explore the relationship between population ageing and financial assets priceThe empirical analysis results show that
population ageing has a long-term negative impact on financial assets priceFrom the predictive viewthe pulse analysis has further confirmed that one additional positive shock added to ageing population could result in a long-term negative impact on financial assets priceThis paper suggests that although population ageing would not be likely to lead to meltdown of finacial assetsthe decrease of financial assets return should be vigilant seriouslyThe paper concludes with discussion on policy implications for population and finance management

Keywords: Ageing , Financial Assets Price , Assets Price Meltdown , Policy Suggestion