人口老龄化会阻碍中等收入阶段跨越吗?

人口研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 31-43.

人口老龄化会阻碍中等收入阶段跨越吗?

范洪敏¹，穆怀中²#br#

范洪敏,辽宁大学人口研究所博士研究生;穆怀中,辽宁大学人口研究所教授、博士生导师。

出版日期:2018-01-29 发布日期:2018-04-13
作者简介:范洪敏,辽宁大学人口研究所博士研究生;穆怀中,辽宁大学人口研究所教授、博士生导师。
基金资助:
本文为国家自然科学基金“养老保险缴费率一元化与适度水平研究”(项目号:71373110)、教育部人文社科研究基金“全面“二孩”下女性职业生命周期移动及公共政策取向研究” (项目号:17YJC840040)、辽宁省教育厅项目“人口结构变化对辽宁省企业养老保险基金平衡的影响效应研究”(项目号:WQN201612)的阶段性成果。

Will Population Ageing Impede the Escape of Middle-Income Trap?

Fan Hongmin¹ and Mu Huaizhong²#br#

Fan Hongmin is Doctoral Candidate,Institute of Population Research,Liaoning University, Mu Huaizhong is Professor,Institute of Population Research,Liaoning University.

Online:2018-01-29 Published:2018-04-13
About author:Fan Hongmin is Doctoral Candidate,Institute of Population Research,Liaoning University,Mu Huaizhong is Professor,Institute of Population Research,Liaoning University.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 人口老龄化水平不断提高会阻碍一个国家经济增长而陷入“中等收入陷阱”吗? 文章在检验人口老龄化对经济增长影响基础上,进一步分析人口老龄化对中等收入阶段跨越概率影响。研究发现:第一,人口老龄化对经济增长具有显著负向影响;第二,人口总抚养比水平的提高会显著降低一个国家或地区中等收入向高收入阶段跨越概率,而老年抚养比的提高并不能显著降低一个国家或地区中等收入向高收入阶段跨越概率;第三,提高人力资本和全要素生产率有助于加大一个国家或地区中等收入阶段向高收入阶段跨越概率。因此,中国应提升人力资本水平,加大研发投入,弥补人口老龄化对经济增长的负面影响,

关键词: 人口老龄化, 经济增长, 中等收入陷阱, 人力资本, 系统 GMM, CUI

Abstract: Using cross-country panel data this paper analyzes the relationship between populationaging and economic growth,and further examines the impact of population aging on the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. We find that there is a significant negative relationship between population aging and economic growth. The increase of the overall dependency ratio would decrease the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. The impact of the old-age dependency ratio on the probability of being fallen into in the middle-income trap is not significant. Enhancement of human capital and technology progress would increase the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. Therefore,measures should be taken to cope with the negative effect of aging on the economic growth in order to avoid the middle-income trap. These measures include enhancing the level of human capital and increasing investment on research and development.

范洪敏，穆怀中. 人口老龄化会阻碍中等收入阶段跨越吗?[J]. 人口研究, 2018, 42(1): 31-43.

Fan Hongmin and Mu Huaizhong. Will Population Ageing Impede the Escape of Middle-Income Trap?[J]. Population Research, 2018, 42(1): 31-43.

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