关键词: 人口老龄化 , 城镇化 , 产业结构升级 , 面板门槛回归

Abstract: In the context of differences in demographic and economic urbanization levels across the provinces of China,the impact of population ageing on the upgrading of industrial structure presents unbalanced features.Utilizing panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1998 to 2015,this paper conducts the panel regression threshold model to demonstrate the threshold effect of ageing on the upgrading of industrial structure.The empirical results show that there is a threshold effect on the impact of ageing on the upgrading of industrial structure.When the level of urbanization is greater than the threshold,population ageing promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure;otherwise it prevents the upgrading of the industrial structure.When population urbanization is considered as the threshold,only Beijing and Shanghai have passed the threshold,while the remaining 28 provinces are under the line.When economic urbanization is treated as the threshold,there are four provinces,i.e.,Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,and Guangdong,have crossed the threshold,while the remaining 26 provinces are below the standard.

Keywords: Population Aging ,  , Urbanization ,  , Upgrade of Industrial Structure ,  , Panel Threshold Regression