人口研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 102-116.

• 人口与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

理解中国适龄劳动人口劳动参与率下降之谜——源于“家庭老年照料”还是“啃老”行为?

刘达禹1,赵恒园2,徐斌3   

  1. 刘达禹1,吉林大学数量经济研究中心副教授;赵恒园2,中国出口信用保险公司博士后科研工作站博士后;徐斌3,吉林大学数量经济研究中心博士研究生。
  • 出版日期:2022-05-29 发布日期:2022-06-07
  • 作者简介:刘达禹,吉林大学数量经济研究中心副教授;赵恒园,中国出口信用保险公司博士后科研工作站博士后;徐斌,吉林大学数量经济研究中心博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到国家社会科学基金重大项目“健全目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系的理论与实践研究”(21ZDA042)的支持。

Identifying the Mystery of Chinas Declining Labor Participation Rate among Workingage Population: Informal Care or “Being NEETs”?

Liu Dayu1,Zhao Hengyuan2,Xu Bin3   

  1. Liu Dayu 1, Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University; Zhao Hengyuan2 , Postdoctoral Research Workstation, China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation; Xu Bin 3, Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University.
  • Online:2022-05-29 Published:2022-06-07
  • About author:Liu Dayu , Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University; Zhao Hengyuan , Postdoctoral Research Workstation, China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation; Xu Bin , Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University.

摘要: 利用2016年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS2016)数据实证检验适龄劳动人口劳动参与率下降的原因。结果发现,“啃老”会阻碍适龄劳动人口参与劳动, “家庭老年照料”则会提升个体的劳动参与率,根据边际概率计算,“啃老”造成的负向影响更为严重。城乡分类研究显示,农村“啃老”问题危害更深,表明“啃老”并不是富裕家庭中的独有现象,已呈现出“逐底竞赛”之势。家庭分类研究显示,“未婚无房贷”人群最易受“啃老”行为影响而降低就业意愿。这些结论一方面说明,当下部分适龄劳动人口中确实出现了“社会责任感缺失”的不良之风;另一方面表明,低就业引力群体中的受迫性“啃老”现象正在迅速滋生。因此,关注此类人群的教育与发展是破解当下低就业困境的核心要务。

关键词: 家庭老年照料, “啃老”行为, 劳动参与率

Abstract: This paper conducts an empirical analysis using the data of CFPS2016 to test the causes for the decline of employment rate. The results show that “Being NEETs” prevents workingage population from participating in work, while informal care promotes labor participation. According to marginal probability calculation, “Being NEETs” has a stronger negative impact. The negative impact imposed by the NEETs, which indicates a race to the bottom trend, is more serious in rural areas, suggesting that “Being NEETs” is no longer a privilege among rich families. People who are unmarried and without home loan are more vulnerable to losing their employment willingness. On the one hand, our results suggest that there is indeed a lack of social responsibility among the current workingage population. On the other hand, the phenomenon of forcedly “Being NEETs” among lowemployment ability population is rapidly expanding. Therefore, paying more attention to those peoples education and career development is the core task of breaking through the current dilemma of low employment rate.