夫妻孝道观念与生育行为：基于复发事件生存分析的考察

人口研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (5): 113-128.

• 人口与社会 • 上一篇

夫妻孝道观念与生育行为：基于复发事件生存分析的考察

赵晓航, 谢宇

出版日期:2024-09-29 发布日期:2024-09-29
作者简介:赵晓航，中国社会科学院中国式现代化研究院助理研究员；谢宇(通讯作者)，北京大学光华管理学院社会研究中心、美国普林斯顿大学社会学系教授。电子邮箱:yuxie@princeton.edu
基金资助:
本研究得到中国社会科学院“青启计划”项目“中国式现代化进程中的人口高质量发展问题研究”(2024QQJH160)和教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国人口长期均衡发展关键问题研究”(22JJD840001)的支持。

Couples' Filial Piety and Childbearing Behavior: A Recurrent Event Survival Analysis

Zhao Xiaohang, Xie Yu

Published:2024-09-29 Online:2024-09-29
About Author:Zhao Xiaohang is Assistant Professor, National Academy of Chinese Modernization, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Xie Yu (Corresponding Author) is Professor, Center for Social Research, Peking University, and Department of Sociology, Princeton University. Email:yuxie@princeton.edu

摘要/Abstract

摘要：第二次人口转变理论认为，生育行为与文化观念息息相关。基于多期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，采用复发事件生存分析方法来探究孝道观念与生育行为之间的关系。研究发现，夫妻双方的宗族型孝道观与婚后生育风险呈显著正相关，其中主要是与二孩和三孩的生育风险呈显著正相关，而代际型孝道观与生育风险之间没有显著关联。从中介机制来看，增加理想子女数量是宗族型孝道观促进生育行为的重要渠道。在宗族文化越兴盛的区县，丈夫的宗族型孝道观与生育风险之间的正向关系越强。在稳健性检验中，利用追踪数据弱化了反向因果问题，验证了核心结论的可靠性。宗族型孝道观的式微为生育率的低迷提供了一种文化观念解释，改造和发扬宗族型孝道观可能有助于提高生育率。

关键词: 孝道, 生育行为, 复发事件, 宗族文化

Abstract: The Second Demographic Transition Theory suggests that childbearing behavior is closely related to cultural ideations. Using several waves of data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study employs recurrent event survival analysis to examine the relationship between couples' filial piety and childbearing behavior. Findings show that both spouses' clan-oriented filial piety is significantly associated with a higher fertility hazard after marriage, particularly for having a second and third child. Intergenerational filial piety, however, shows no significant association. An increase in the ideal number of children is a key channel through which the clan-oriented filial piety promotes childbearing behavior. In counties where clan culture is more pervasive, the positive relationship between husbands' clan-oriented filial piety and fertility hazard is stronger. A robustness check using panel data to mitigate reverse causality confirms the reliability of the main conclusions. The decline of clan-oriented filial piety provides a cultural explanation for low fertility. Reforming and promoting clan-oriented filial piety may help increase fertility.

Keywords: Filial Piety, Childbearing Behavior, Recurrent Event, Clan Culture

赵晓航, 谢宇. 夫妻孝道观念与生育行为：基于复发事件生存分析的考察[J]. 人口研究, 2024, 48(5): 113-128.

Zhao Xiaohang, Xie Yu. Couples' Filial Piety and Childbearing Behavior: A Recurrent Event Survival Analysis[J]. Population Research, 2024, 48(5): 113-128.

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https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2024/V48/I5/113

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夫妻孝道观念与生育行为：基于复发事件生存分析的考察

Couples' Filial Piety and Childbearing Behavior: A Recurrent Event Survival Analysis

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