关键词: 老一代流动人口, 长居意愿, 居留时间, 累积效应

Abstract: The older generation of migrants face the decision of whether to settle in the destination, and their settlement intention is an important basis for predicting their future settlement. Based on the 2012-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS2012-2018), this article focuses on analyzing the cumulative effect of residence duration on their settlement intention. It has been found that the older generation migrants have a significantly stronger settlement intention, and have been staying in the destination for a long time. Their settlement intention significantly increases with the extension of their residence duration. The residence duration moderates the impact of other factors on the settlement intention of the older generation migrants. It strengthens the positive impact of higher education and having medical insurance and the negative impact of agricultural household registration and overtime work, but weakens the positive impact of the size and type of core families. The main and moderating effects of residence duration on the settlement intention of the older generation migrants can be deeply understood through the retention selection mechanism of migrants from the theoretical perspective of cumulative advantages and cumulative disadvantages.

Keywords: Older Generation Migrants, Settlement Intention, Residence Duration, Cumulative Effect