国际产业分工中人口规模回旋空间的存在性及其对中国的启示

摘要/Abstract

摘要：通过文献析出阐明人口规模在国际产业分工中的作用机理，继而基于世界银行和世界贸易组织相关数据，检验各国(或地区)人口规模对其参与国际产业分工的影响。研究发现：人口规模对国际产业分工参与度、依存度和竞争力均具有显著影响，表明人口规模在国际产业分工中存在回旋空间效应；人口规模较大的国家(或地区)对国际产业分工的依赖程度较低但竞争力更强，人口规模较小的国家(或地区)则更加依赖国际产业分工。推及中国，面对人口长期负增长的未来形势，应充分发挥人口规模依然巨大和分布空间广袤在国内区域产业分工中的回旋空间效应，既可通过国内区域间产业分工深化和专业化提高生产率，又可保持总体产业体系完整，从而提高中国在国际产业分工中的参与度和竞争力，并促进经济高质量发展。

关键词: 人口规模, 回旋空间, 国际产业分工, 全球价值链

Abstract: Based on previous literature, this study elucidates the influence of population size on international industrial division and its mechanisms. Drawing on data from the World Bank and the World Trade Organization, this study further examines the impact of population size on countries' or regions' participation in the international industrial division. The results show that population size significantly promotes participation, dependence, and competitiveness in international industrial division, indicating a “room for maneuver” of population size. Countries or regions with larger populations are less dependent on the international industrial division and exhibit stronger competitiveness, while smaller countries or regions are more reliant on the international industrial division. In face of the long-term population decline, China should leverage its vast population and territory to capitalize on the room for maneuver in population size. Deepening domestic industrial division, enhancing productivity, and maintaining a complete industrial system could help improve participation and competitiveness in international industrial division, thereby promoting high-quality economic development.

Keywords: Population Size, Room for Maneuver, International Industrial Division, Global Value Chains

王金营, 张进. 国际产业分工中人口规模回旋空间的存在性及其对中国的启示[J]. 人口研究, 2025, 49(2): 32-49.

Wang Jinying, Zhang Jin. The Existence of Population Cushion in International Industrial Division and Its Implications for China[J]. Population Research, 2025, 49(2): 32-49.

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链接本文: https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/

https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V49/I2/32

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