人口规模对人工智能技术的潜在影响

人口研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (2): 50-63.

• 中国特色的人口理论探索——人口规模的影响 • 上一篇下一篇

人口规模对人工智能技术的潜在影响

黄青, 谢宇

出版日期:2025-03-29 发布日期:2025-03-29
作者简介:黄青，中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院助理教授；谢宇，美国普林斯顿大学当代中国研究中心、北京大学光华管理学院社会研究中心教授。电子邮箱：qhuang@ruc.edu.cn
基金资助:
本研究得到国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国劳动时间过长现象的评估、形成机制及政策调节研究”(7240030732)的支持。

The Potential Impact of Population Size on the Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology

Huang Qing, Xie Yu

Published:2025-03-29 Online:2025-03-29
About Author:Huang Qing is Assistant Professor, School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China; Xie Yu is Professor, Center on Contemporary China, Princeton University, and Center for Social Research, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Email:qhuang@ruc.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：随着全球新一轮科技革命和产业变革孕育兴起，人工智能技术加速演进，将对全球经济社会发展和人类文明进步产生深远影响。研究发现，与工业革命以来的技术创新主要依赖实验和物理模型不同，人工智能技术的发展高度依赖数据驱动；大规模人口在人工智能技术的发展过程中发挥了至关重要的作用，具体体现在数据资源供给、技术开发的成本优化以及技术推广和应用的加速等方面；作为全球人口大国，中国在人工智能技术开发领域展现出独特的竞争优势，特别是在庞大的数据基础、强劲的市场需求和丰富的应用场景等方面。为进一步释放人口规模对人工智能技术的促进作用，应增强数据基础设施建设、优化人才培养和教育体系、推动人工智能技术普及与应用、强化人工智能伦理与安全监管。

关键词: 人口规模, 技术创新, 人工智能技术

Abstract: As a new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation emerges globally, artificial intelligence (AI) is evolving at an accelerated pace, profoundly impacting global economic and social development as well as the advancement of human civilization. The study reveals that, unlike technological innovations of the Industrial Revolution, which primarily relied on experiments and physical models, AI development is inherently data-driven. A large population plays a crucial role in advancing AI technology, particularly by supplying abundant data resources, optimizing the cost of technology development, and accelerating the dissemination and application of innovations. As one of the world's most populous countries, China possesses unique competitive advantages in the AI sector, especially in terms of its vast data foundation, strong market demand, and diverse application scenarios. To further leverage population size as a driver of AI technology development, it is essential to enhance data infrastructure, optimize talent cultivation systems, promote the adoption and application of AI, and strengthen AI ethics and security regulations.

Keywords: Population Size, Technological Innovation, Artificial Intelligence Technology

黄青, 谢宇. 人口规模对人工智能技术的潜在影响[J]. 人口研究, 2025, 49(2): 50-63.

Huang Qing, Xie Yu. The Potential Impact of Population Size on the Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology[J]. Population Research, 2025, 49(2): 50-63.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/

https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V49/I2/50

参考文献

1 丁泽勤.世界科技进步的原因、趋势及其影响——马克思科技思想的现代解读.河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014;4:49-52
Ding Zeqin. 2014. The Reason, Trend, and Impact of Science and Technology Progress in the World. Journal of Henan Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition) 4:49-52.
2 林毅夫.李约瑟之谜、韦伯疑问和中国的奇迹——自宋以来的长期经济发展.北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007;4:5-22
Lin Justin Yifu. 2007. Needham Puzzle, Weber Question, and China's Miracle: Long Term Performance since the Song Dynasty. Journal of Peking University (Philosophy and Social Sciences) 4:5-22.
3 欧阳晓红.“后来者”DeepSeek:掀起算法效率革命.经济观察网,http://www.eeo.com.cn/2025/0129/708842.shtml. 2025-01-29
Ouyang Xiaohong. 2025. “Latecomer” DeepSeek: Sparking a Revolution in Algorithm Efficiency. The Economic Observer. http://www.eeo.com.cn/2025/0129/708842.shtml. 29 January.
4 翟振武,金光照,张逸杨.人口老龄化会阻碍技术创新吗?东岳论丛,2021;11:24-35+191
Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao, and Zhang Yiyang. 2021. Will Population Ageing Hinder Technological Innovation? Dongyue Tribune 11:24-35+191.
5 Acharya A. and Dunn B. 2022. Comparing US and Chinese Contributions to High-impact AI Research. Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) Brief Report. https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Comparing-U.S.-and-Chinese-Contributions-to-High-Impact-AI.pdf.
6 Bell D. 1973. The Coming of Post-industrial Society. New York: Basic Books:5-15.
7 Boserup E. 1965. The Conditions of Agricultural Change: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure. Chicago: Aline:35-70.
8 Boserup E. 1981. Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-term Trends. Chicago: University of Chicago Press:90-120.
9 Diamond J. M. 1999. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. New York: Norton:83-176.
10 Li D., Tong T. W., and Xiao Y. 2021. Is China Emerging as the Global Leader in AI. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2021/02/is-china-emerging-as-the-global-leader-in-ai?ab=hero-subleft-3. 18 February.
11 Lin J. Y. 1995. The Needham Puzzle: Why the Industrial Revolution Did Not Originate in China. Economic Development and Cultural Change 2:269-292.
12 Moor J. 2006. The Dartmouth College Artificial Intelligence Conference: The Next FiftyYears. AI Magazine 4:87-91.
13 Romer P. M. 1990. Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy 5:S71-S102.
14 Russell S. J. and Norvig P. 2016. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. London: Pearson plc:1-16.
15 White K. 2021. Publications Output: US Trends and International Comparisons. Science & Engineering Indicators National Science Foundation Report, NSB-2021-4. https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20214.
16 Xie Y. and Avila S. 2025. The Social Impact of Generative LLM-based AI. Chinese Journal of Sociology (Special Issue):1-27.
17 Xie Y., Zhang C., and Lai Q. 2014. China's Rise as a Major Contributor to Science and Technology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 26:9437-9442.
18 Zha D., Bhat Z. P., Lai K. H., Yang F., Jiang Z.,et al. 2025. Data-centric Artificial Intelligence: A Survey. ACM Computing Surveys 5:1-42.

[1]	王金营, 张进. 国际产业分工中人口规模回旋空间的存在性及其对中国的启示[J]. 人口研究, 2025, 49(2): 32-49.
[2]	李龙, 贾墨晗, 金光照. 中国和印度经济增长的人口条件比较——基于“人口规模巨大的现代化”视角的分析[J]. 人口研究, 2023, 47(3): 49-62.
[3]	李竞博, 高瑗. 人口老龄化视角下的技术创新与经济高质量发展[J]. 人口研究, 2022, 46(2): 102-116.
[4]	刘厚莲,原新. 人口负增长时代还能实现经济持续增长吗？[J]. 人口研究, 2020, 44(4): 62-73.
[5]	王金营,刘艳华. 经济发展中的人口回旋空间：存在性和理论架构[J]. 人口研究, 2020, 44(1): 3-18.
[6]	童玉芬，王静文. 劳动力供给诸因素变动对经济增长的影响——基于要素分解的实证研究[J]. 人口研究, 2017, 41(3): 15-25.
[7]	罗能生, 张梦迪. 人口规模、消费结构和环境效率[J]. 人口研究, 2017, 41(3): 38-52.
[8]	王金营，戈艳霞. 全面两孩政策实施下的中国人口发展态势[J]. 人口研究, 2016, 40(6): 3-21.
[9]	尹德挺, 史毅. 人口分布、增长极与世界级城市群孵化——基于美国东北部城市群和京津冀城市群的比较[J]. 人口研究, 2016, 40(6): 87-98.
[10]	朱中仕，陈华. 由赴港生子到生育公地悲剧的认识[J]. 人口研究, 2012, 36(4): 103-112.
[11]	《人口研究》编辑部，陆杰华，于学军，原新，黄荣清 . 世人瞩目的六普：轨迹、解读与思考[J]. 人口研究, 2011, 35(3): 41-55.
[12]	刘锋，黄润龙，丁金宏，段成荣. 特大城市如何调控人口规模?[J]. 人口研究, 2011, 35(1): 29-43.
[13]	王金营，顾瑶. 建设人口均衡型社会：条件、问题及对策[J]. 人口研究, 2011, 35(1): 74-81.
[14]	马忠东，王建平. 区域竞争下流动人口的规模及分布[J]. 人口研究, 2010, 34(3): 3-16.
[15]	于学军，翟振武，杨凡，李建民，穆光宗. 为什么要建设“人口均衡型社会”?[J]. 人口研究, 2010, 34(3): 40-52.

人口规模对人工智能技术的潜在影响

The Potential Impact of Population Size on the Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics