中国人口普查初婚数据质量评估与调整

人口研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (2): 99-116.

中国人口普查初婚数据质量评估与调整

杨柳清, 果臻, 彭媛

出版日期:2025-03-29 发布日期:2025-03-29
作者简介:杨柳清，华中科技大学社会学院博士研究生；果臻(通讯作者)，华中科技大学社会调查研究中心、社会学院教授；彭媛，华中科技大学社会学院博士研究生。电子邮箱：guozhen@hust.edu.cn
基金资助:
本研究得到华中科技大学文科双一流建设项目(城乡基层治理研究团队)的支持。

Evaluation and Adjustment of First Marriage Data in China's Censuses

Yang Liuqing, Guo Zhen, Peng Yuan

Published:2025-03-29 Online:2025-03-29
About Author:Yang Liuqing is PhD Candidate, School of Sociology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology; Guo Zhen (Corresponding Author) is Professor, Center for Social Survey Research, School of Sociology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology; Peng Yuan is PhD Candidate, School of Sociology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Email:guozhen@hust.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：基于第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据，检验初婚数据的准确性，进行数据调整，并揭示其对初婚状况分析的影响。研究发现，普查统计的历年初婚人数变动趋势与民政部门初婚登记数据基本相符，但自2010年起，普查数据整体低于民政数据。通过普查数据内部比较发现，第六次和第七次全国人口普查公布的1980~2010年初婚人数存在一定差异，其中，第七次全国人口普查公布的2010年全国男性和女性初婚人数分别是第六次全国人口普查公布结果的2.53倍和2.34倍。数据调整与否对分析中国人口初婚行为特征影响较大，基于普查原始数据计算得出的全国历史年份初婚水平偏低，平均初婚年龄则整体偏高。从调整后数据来看，1980年以来中国人口初婚水平和模式变动显著，2010~2020年总和初婚率下降和平均初婚年龄推迟进程明显加快。

关键词: 人口普查, 初婚数据, 数据质量, 数据调整

Abstract: Using data from China's 6th and 7th Censuses, this study assesses the accuracy of first marriage statistics, applies necessary adjustments, and explores their implications for analyzing marriage patterns. The findings reveal that trends in census-reported first marriages largely align with civil registration records but have been lower than those in civil records since 2010. Comparisons between the 6th and 7th Censuses reveal discrepancies in first marriage counts from 1980 to 2010. According to the 7th Census, the number of first marriages in 2010 was 2.53 times higher for males and 2.34 times higher for females than those recorded in the 6th Census. Data adjustments are crucial, as raw census data consistently underestimate historical first marriage levels nationwide and overestimate mean ages at first marriage. Adjusted data indicate notable shifts in China's first marriage patterns since 1980, with sharper declines in total first marriage rates and faster increases in the mean age at first marriage from 2010 to 2020.

Keywords: Population Census, First Marriage Data, Data Quality, Data Adjustment

杨柳清, 果臻, 彭媛. 中国人口普查初婚数据质量评估与调整[J]. 人口研究, 2025, 49(2): 99-116.

Yang Liuqing, Guo Zhen, Peng Yuan. Evaluation and Adjustment of First Marriage Data in China's Censuses[J]. Population Research, 2025, 49(2): 99-116.

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链接本文: https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/

https://rkyj.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V49/I2/99

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