关键词: 育龄妇女, 异质性, 婚育递进, 加速失效模型, 广义F分布

Abstract: This study employs data from the 2017 National Fertility Survey and applies accelerated failure time models and the generalized F distribution to analyze three sequential life-course events among Chinese women—first marriage, transition from first marriage to first birth, and transition from first to second birth—by urban-rural residence, birth cohort, and educational attainment. Results indicate that in younger cohorts, the impact of educational attainment on timing of first marriage and probabilities of remaining unmarried has become increasingly pronounced. Regarding the interval between first marriage and first birth, differences across urban-rural and educational lines have narrowed, suggesting a tightening linkage between marriage and childbearing, and a weakening heterogeneity. For the transition from first to second birth, the residential and educational gap has also substantially diminished. Overall, residential and educational heterogeneity plays its most significant role during the first marriage transition, with delayed first marriage emerging as the primary bottleneck contributing to postponed fertility and declining birth rates.

Keywords: Women of Reproductive Age, Heterogeneity, Marriage and Fertility Transition, Accelerated Failure Time Model, Generalized F Distribution