人口研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (1): 51-67.

• 人工智能与人口发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

人工智能发展何以赋能高质量就业

沈可, 石笑峰, 张安妮   

  • 出版日期:2026-01-29 发布日期:2026-01-29
  • 作者简介:沈可,复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院教授;石笑峰、张安妮(通讯作者),复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院博士研究生。电子邮箱:anzhang24@m.fudan.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到国家社会科学基金重大项目“ 人口老龄化对科技创新的影响机制与战略协同研究”(21&ZD189)的支持。

How Does Artificial Intelligence Development Affect Employment Quality?

Shen Ke, Shi Xiaofeng, Zhang Anni   

  • Published:2026-01-29 Online:2026-01-29
  • About Author:Shen Ke is Professor, Shi Xiaofeng and Zhang Anni (Corresponding Author) are PhD Candidates, School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University. Email:anzhang24@m.fudan.edu.cn

摘要:本文结合2014~2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据和城市层面人工智能专利数据,深入探讨人工智能发展对劳动者就业质量的影响及其作用机制与异质性。研究发现,人工智能发展能够显著提升劳动者的就业质量,具体表现为提高了劳动者的工资收入、福利保障和就业稳定性,并缓解了超时劳动问题,但对劳动者工作满意度并没有显著影响。异质性分析显示,人工智能发展对就业质量的提升效应在就业质量较低、女性与非认知能力较强的劳动者群体中尤为明显。机制分析显示,人工智能发展主要通过促进职业层级提升、强化人力资本积累以及提高人岗匹配度来改善劳动者就业质量。为此,建议通过培育新业态就业空间、推动终身技能升级、强化非认知能力培养,实现人工智能时代就业质量的整体提升。

关键词: 人工智能, 就业质量, 就业公平

Abstract: As a core technology driving technological revolution and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence (AI) is profoundly reshaping the labor market. While existing research has extensively examined its impact on employment quantity, studies focusing on employment quality remain relatively limited. Given the breakthrough advances in AI technologies and their deepening penetration across industries, a systematic investigation into how AI development affects workers' employment quality carries significant theoretical and practical relevance,particularly for advancing the policy goal of “promoting high-quality and full employment.”

In this context, this study aims to clarify the impact of AI development on workers' overall employment quality and its sub-dimensions, explore the underlying mechanisms, and examine heterogeneity across different groups. To address these issues, this study combines city-level AI patent data with individual-level data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), constructing a comprehensive employment quality index at the worker level and an AI patent density indicator at the city level. A fixed-effects model is employed for baseline regression analysis. To address potential endogeneity concerns, this study further applies an instrumental variable approach, the Heckman two-step method, and an exogenous shock identification strategy. In addition, a series of robustness checks are conducted.

The main findings are as follows. First, AI development significantly improves workers' overall employment quality: a one-standard-deviation increase in city-level AI patent density raises employment quality by 2.21%. This result holds after accounting for endogeneity and conducting multiple robustness tests. Second, analysis of the sub-dimensions of employment quality shows that AI development significantly increases labor income, improves welfare security, enhances job stability, and reduces the risk of overwork, while its effect on job satisfaction is statistically insignificant. Third, mechanism analysis indicates that AI development improves employment quality mainly by promoting occupational upgrading, strengthening human capital accumulation, and improving job-skill matching. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the employment quality enhancement effect of AI development varies across groups. The positive effects are more prominent among workers with lower employment quality, female workers, and those with stronger non-cognitive skills.

Based on these findings, this study proposes several policy implications: actively expanding new forms of human-machine collaboration to create more high-quality jobs; building a lifelong learning system to facilitate workers' skill upgrading; and integrating non-cognitive skill development into the education system to enhance workers' comparative advantages in human-machine collaboration. Together, these measures can help achieve broad-based improvement in employment quality in the AI era. In summary, through rigorous empirical analysis, this study provides new micro-level evidence and theoretical explanations for understanding the evolution of employment quality in the AI era. It deepens theoretical insights into the role of technology in empowering workers, and offers more targeted policy implications for guiding AI development toward the promotion of high-quality employment and the creation of a more equitable labor market.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Employment Quality, Employment Equity