关键词: 生育意愿； 再生育计划； 生育支持； 虚拟情境实验

Abstract: China's total fertility rate has declined to ultra-low level. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the determinants of subsequent childbearing intentions for a second or third child among Chinese individuals of reproductive age.

The existing literature typically assumes, either explicitly or implicitly, that individuals of reproductive age have a son preference—specifically, a desire to have at least one son—and accordingly treats the number of existing children and whether they have a son or not as separate core explanatory variables in estimating the likelihood of subsequent childbearing. However,currently more than half of the reproductive-age population has shifted their ideal family structure toward having one son and one daughter. To address this gap, this paper contributes to the literature by conceptualizing “fertility intention” as a construct that encompasses both subjective goal orientation and realized outcomes. Specifically, we investigate how fertility support and fertility desire interact to shape subsequent childbearing intentions, and examine which dimension of unfulfilled preference—quantity or sex—exerts a stronger influence on the decision to have another child. Particular attention is paid to complex scenarios in which the quantity preference is satisfied but the sex preference is not, or vice versa.

Drawing on data from the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and employing an ordered logit model, this empirical analysis reveals that household annual income exerts an inverted U-shaped effect on higher-order fertility intentions, peaking at approximately RMB 400,000. Both grandparental care and childcare services facilitate subsequent childbearing intentions. Reproductive-age individuals exhibit no significant preference regarding the public or private nature of childcare institutions, yet remain sensitive to the pricing of high-quality services. Under specific economic constraints, individuals are generally unwilling to exceed their intended family size solely to satisfy a sex preference. In contrast, when the actual number of children falls short of the desired level, having “more girls than desired” promotes the intention to have a third child. Conversely, having “more boys than desired” suppresses the intention for a third child, regardless of whether the existing number of children is below, equal to, or above the desired level. Furthermore, among those desiring at least one son and one daughter, the gender of the firstborn does not significantly affect second-child fertility intention.

Based on these findings, the following policy implications are proposed. First, expanding the coverage of childcare subsidies and educational burden-reduction initiatives is necessary to alleviate the economic pressures of childrearing for ordinary families. Second, reforms targeting marriage customs are required to promote a more equitable sharing of marital responsibilities between the families of the bride and groom, thereby alleviating the long-term financial burden on families with sons. Finally, public health and social interventions should aim to cultivate a positive and supportive marriage and childbearing environment, progressively building a favorable landscape where people of childbearing age are willing, confident, and eager to expand their family.

Keywords: Fertility Desire, Higher-order Fertility Intentions, Fertility Support, Vignette Experiment