关键词: 子女数量, 期望退休年龄, 生育政策调整, 政策模拟

Abstract: After the official implementation of the policy to gradually raise the statutory retirement age, we utilize data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and employ the number of children of parents' siblings as an exclusive instrumental variable to empirically test the fertility policy heterogeneous treatment effect of the number of children on parents' expected retirement age based on the generalized Roy model. The findings reveal a delay effect of having multiple children on parents' expected retirement age. As the constraint imposed by the fertility policy on having multiple children increases, the effect becomes more pronounced. Simulation results regarding fertility policy adjustments suggest that, following the Universal Two-Child Policy and Three-Child Fertility Policy, the increase in the number of parents having multiple children further strengthens the delay effect of having multiple children on parents' expected retirement age. In light of this, governments and employers may consider taking into account employees' family situations regarding children, so as to refine the detailed implementation measures for employees' flexible early or delayed retirement. Meanwhile, governments at all levels should accelerate the improvement of the fertility support policy system and incentive mechanisms.

Keywords: Number of Children, Expected Retirement Age, Fertility Policy Adjustment, Policy Simulation